April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

For a few weeks in May? Possibly.

 

But who cares about that? Globally, it’s a very different pattern and forcing structure (so far). An average to slightly warmer than average summer with a very healthy moisture tap looks increasingly likely.

 

With El Niño and +PMM, a consistently “cool” summer will be very difficult to pull off without a huge flip in the annular mode/NAO from recent summers. Will probably have to wait until the strong multi-yr La Niña in the early 2020s for that.

I’m starting to wonder when that is going to shift to mid-2020s. Probably soon since we are only 9 months away from the early 2020s.

 

And yeah, I don’t think anyone is expecting a cool summer this year.

[TT-SEA]

Tim. How did the Euro look for Sunday. Am I still going to be doing yard work with temps in the 60s

Looks pretty good for you up there. Wet from Everett southward.

[Jesse]

Looks pretty good for you up there. Wet from Everett southward.

Mapps?

[Jesse]

Just realized PDX is running a five degree departure for month to date. Been a mild one so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just realized PDX is running a five degree departure for month to date. Been a mild one so far.

 

Departure at my place is probably even more than that. Very mild overnight lows...The price we pay for all the rain. 

 

Remember when I said there was a 0% April would come in below average? Not to brag, but I have been blessed with the gift of prophecy. 

[Jesse]

Departure at my place is probably even more than that. Very mild overnight lows...The price we pay for all the rain.

 

We haven’t had much rain to show for it up here. Best of both worlds!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We haven’t had much rain to show for it up here. Best of both worlds!

 

I hear it has been a sunny month so far in North Bend, Washington. 

[Jesse]

 

Remember when I said there was a 0% April would come in below average? Not to brag, but I have been blessed with the gift of prophecy.

 

It’s April 4th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s April 4th.

 

I don't see anything to make me think otherwise.

[Jesse]

I don't see anything to make me think otherwise.

My calendar is making me doubt this observation.

[TacomaWaWx]

Was only a light south breeze about 30 minutes ago now it’s getting more breezy the trees are swaying now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My calendar is making me doubt this observation.

 

So basically you are saying it is possible we have a 1-2 week period some point this month with -5 to -7 departures. Don't think so.

[Jesse]

So basically you are saying it is possible we have a 1-2 week period some point this month with -5 to -7 departures. Don't think so.

All I’m saying is it’s early in the month. If you want too put out 0% odds be my guest but it’s nothing better than a guess at this point.

[El_Nina]

0.34" on the day so far. WOOHOO! Super green out there today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All I’m saying is it’s early in the month. If you want too put out 0% odds be my guest but it’s nothing better than a guess at this point.

 

Noted. But we may need to revisit this one later on. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Has been about 0.11” of rain this afternoon after 0.14” this morning. Looks like some cells are forming on the back side of the system moving into SW WA.

[MossMan]

Looks pretty good for you up there. Wet from Everett southward.

Good. Keep it south, I have yard work to do as well.

[TT-SEA]

Noted. But we may need to revisit this one later on. 

 

 

He is not saying it will be colder than normal or even likely that it will be colder than normal.

 

He is saying that its April 5th and its too early to say that a warm month is guaranteed.   He is right regardless of what actually happens... so no need to revisit it later.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He is not saying it will be colder than normal or even likely that it will be colder than normal.

 

He is saying that its April 5th and its too early to say that a warm month is guaranteed.   He is right regardless of what actually happens... so no need to revisit it later.  

 

OK

[Front Ranger]

Variable weather with episodes of cool troughing (mixed with quick shots of warmth) thanks to an active and dynamic wavetrain.

 

Sounds like spring.

[Front Ranger]

I’m starting to wonder when that is going to shift to mid-2020s. Probably soon since we are only 9 months away from the early 2020s.

 

And yeah, I don’t think anyone is expecting a cool summer this year.

 

I'm expecting cooler than last summer at this point. Maybe 2016-ish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm expecting cooler than last summer at this point. Maybe 2016-ish.

 

Yeah this makes sense. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Wind has been steadily picking up in the last 30 minutes. Winds gusting about 25mph I’d estimate so far. Has done light to moderate rain at times but not a ton of rain only a quarter inch for the day so far.

[TT-SEA]

Trees are swaying a little here!   I looked it up on Google... I believe this is called "wind" and its a fairly common occurrence on Earth.   

[TacomaWaWx]

Trees are swaying a little here! I looked it up on Google... I believe this is called "wind" and its a fairly common occurrence on Earth.

Wind advisory just issued for tomorrow gusts 40-55mph

[MossMan]

Trees are swaying a little here! I looked it up on Google... I believe this is called "wind" and its a fairly common occurrence on Earth.

I have heard a rumor that K12 is an expert on that phenomenon.

[El_Nina]

Trees are swaying a little here!   I looked it up on Google... I believe this is called "wind" and its a fairly common occurrence on Earth.

 

A sexual innuendo earlier and now this? What's in that "wind" up there?

[TacomaWaWx]

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

Wind advisory just issued for tomorrow gusts 40-55mph

 

 

According to Google... that means the trees will sway a little more.    I guess trees will actually bend with the "wind gusts" (check my spelling) and then go back to normal when those "wind gusts" subside.    I also read that in extreme cases... the trees will actually fall down to the ground and die.    That would be sad.  

[TacomaWaWx]

I actually love wind and windstorms! Better conversation than most topics so far this month on here!

I love and hate them. They are cool to watch but it sucks when they damage property and houses unfortunately.

[Requiem]

Of course Portland is left out of the wind advisory

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS showing as much as 5" of rain here in the next 5 days. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Of course Portland is left out of the wind advisory

it will probably be a little windy at least. I’m surprised there’s even a wind advisory for Western WA tomorrow. Wasn’t expecting it to actually be that windy. Hopefully it’s not as bad as the December and January windstorms, we’ve had enough wind as it is.

[Requiem]

it will probably be a little windy at least. I’m surprised there’s even a wind advisory for Western WA tomorrow. Wasn’t expecting it to actually be that windy. Hopefully it’s not as bad as the December and January windstorms, we’ve had enough wind as it is.

You can probably gather that I really love windstorms haha, and it’s been so frustrating to see them ALL go north this year.

[TacomaWaWx]

You can probably gather that I really love windstorms haha, and it’s been so frustrating to see them ALL go north this year.

yeah there’s been about 3 or 4 or them this year here, Portland gets some decent windstorms sometimes too.

[ShawniganLake]

I’ve been working down in Victoria today. No sign of any liquid water falling from the sky. I did a google search and it turns out that is what is called “rain”

[TT-SEA]

I’ve been working down in Victoria today. No sign of any liquid water falling from the sky. I did a google search and it turns out that is what is called “rain”

 

 

Interesting.   There has been water seemingly falling right out of the sky for the last couple hours here.   I was just headed to Google to figure out what is going on.

[Requiem]

yeah there’s been about 3 or 4 or them this year here, Portland gets some decent windstorms sometimes too.

Yeah, definitely a lot less intense or frequent then Seattle. Hopefully it gets a bit breezy in PDX.

[Jesse]

According to Google... that means the trees will sway a little more. I guess trees will actually bend with the "wind gusts" (check my spelling) and then go back to normal when those "wind gusts" subside. I also read that in extreme cases... the trees will actually fall down to the ground and die. That would be sad.

You aren’t a very funny person.