TT-SEA Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 12z Euro slides the weekend trough mostly to our east compared to yesterday’s 12z. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a last minute collapse on the big trough scenario to be honest. Feels out of place.Now looks just like the last few EPS runs... so its not surprising in that regard either. Now the EPS will go in the opposite direction. Happens all the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Now looks just like the last few EPS runs... so its not surprising in that regard either. Now the EPS will go in the opposite direction. Happens all the time.I thought the EPS was always rock steady? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Today’s 12z Euro solution is probably what will verify. Or come close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 I thought the EPS was always rock steady? Yeah... I have seen it lead the other models and then completely flip and the lead in a different direction many times. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 I guess there is enough in the soil that they can smoulder deep underground in old stumps and woody material for 6 months or more.That’s what happened after Eagle Creek. The spring after the fire happened, there were small fires in the Gorge because small remnants of the fire smoldered for months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Haven’t heard anything substantive from you in a while. What are your thoughts?Sunday confessional: I have not been looking at models lately. Pretty much anything I have on hand is from skimming through the spring spazziness here. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 The 12z Euro was like opening up a nice fabergé Easter egg and finding it to be filled with rabbit turds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 The most impressive trade wind burst of the year is about to commence over the ENSO regions. Corresponds nicely with a likely shift to -PNA. Right now it appears we may get off without this turning into a major Nino. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 I just mowed a long and very wet lawn... now its dry. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Let’s just get a big Niño out of the way rather than kicking the can down the for road another year of +ENSO conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Does anyone have a read on how the first week of May looks? Not liking the way the GFS seems to be extending the life of next weekend's trough. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 The river is fed by the Carbon Glacier whose terminus is around 3,000’, making it the lowest elevation glacier in the lower 48.Not to be nit-picky but my Green Trails map puts it at around 3,600 ft.. fwiw... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Does anyone have a read on how the first week of May looks? Not liking the way the GFS seems to be extending the life of next weekend's trough.The Euro models are moving the trough to the east and into the plains. Let’s see if the GFS follows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 The Euro models are moving the trough to the east and into the plains. Let’s see if the GFS follows.I'd like it to stay out of Idaho if possible... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 I'd like it to stay out of Idaho if possible... When are you coming to Idaho from Arizona? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 When are you coming to Idaho from Arizona?I'm in Jackpot, NV now. It was incredibly windy here yesterday evening, must've been 60 mph gusts. 1 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 EPS seems to be at odds with the operational Euro. Looks more like the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 The trend is not our friend. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 The ball is in drunk uncle's court. Ugh. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 EPS seems to be at odds with the operational Euro. Looks more like the GFS. For what period? It looks much closer to the ECMWF operational run at day 8. EPS: ECMWF: GFS: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Also does not look close to the 12Z GFS at day 10. GFS was WAY colder. But it also does not show a ridge like the ECMWF at day 10. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 I know... the 28 seconds it took me to copy a couple maps is completely melting down. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Let’s just get a big Niño out of the way rather than kicking the can down the for road another year of +ENSO conditions. Normally I might agree, but I feel we are primed for an amazing winter next time around if we avoid it. It could be a while before things align so nicely again. We just had a major Nino not that long ago and now weak warm ENSO for the past year. We're really not all that due for a big multi year Nino. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 I'm in Jackpot, NV now. It was incredibly windy here yesterday evening, must've been 60 mph gusts. Jackpot. What a name for a city in NV! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 That whole valley on the north side of Rainier is pretty scenic. Have you ever been up the Carbon River into the park. Some nice temperate rainforest up that way. The river is fed by the Carbon Glacier whose terminus is around 3,000’, making it the lowest elevation glacier in the lower 48. I'm not sure if that is entirely correct or not. There is a permanent snow field / glacier in Snohomish County at the bottom of Big 4 Mountain. That is well below 3000 feet and is there because of an avalanche chute. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Well, the 18z gfs op looks pretty freaking cold to me. Hopefully it's just cuz he tied one on. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 I'm not sure if that is entirely correct or not. There is a permanent snow field / glacier in Snohomish County at the bottom of Big 4 Mountain. That is well below 3000 feet and is there because of an avalanche chute.That isn’t technically a glacier though. It’s a perennial snowfield. I think the difference is a glaicer has to be compressed ice that is actually moving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Jackpot. What a name for a city in NV! I looked it up, it's literally right on the border with Idaho. Cactus Pete's Casino seems to be the main attraction! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 I looked it up, it's literally right on the border with Idaho. Cactus Pete's Casino seems to be the main attraction!Yeah, I'm staying at their rv park. It's a surprisingly nice place more akin to something you'd find in Reno or Vegas. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 FWIW. I’m feeling a GFS win with the upcoming troughy goodies. At minimum a compromise seems likely with cold NW flow and some showery weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 18z GFS looks chilly but not anywhere near the record breaker we saw with some of yesterday’s models. At least for my area. Past 240 continues chilly weather but I doubt all of it will verify. It is, after all, past 240. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted April 21, 2019 Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 Would be cool to see it cool again. Hope the GFS wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 18Z GFS ensembles seem to be backing off on the trough intensity a bit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 There is a god! Fitting He would make His presence known on Easter of all days... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Right in the death path of a Rainier mudflow.This is true if Rainer decides to get angry...Federal way will become an island. Mudflow will engulf the flats to my south and South-center area to my North if strong enough! Let’s hope that excitement doesn’t happen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 I've always liked the area around Point Defiance to the narrows bridge too.Point Defiance is filled with very smart fury critters stopping traffic for a snack! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 This is true if Rainer decides to get angry...Federal way will become an island. Mudflow will engulf the flats to my south and South-center area to my North if strong enough! Let’s hope that excitement doesn’t happen! Some type of major geological event is bound to happen soon here in the PNW. Wether that be an earthquake or a volcano. Nothing big has happened since 2001, almost 20 years. There’s 18 volcanoes and a lot of fault lines that haven’t gone off in awhile. There’s big earthquakes that happen offshore sometimes but they’re too far out to be felt usually. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Some type of major geological event is bound to happen soon here in the PNW. Wether that be an earthquake or a volcano. Nothing big has happened since 2001, almost 20 years. There’s 18 volcanoes and a lot of fault lines that haven’t gone off in awhile.There’s big earthquakes that happen offshore sometimes but they’re too far out to be felt usually. I remember several months ago a bunch of 7.0s happened off the BC coast. I believe there was a tsunami warning for some coastal areas but it did not have much, if any impact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Some type of major geological event is bound to happen soon here in the PNW. Wether that be an earthquake or a volcano. Nothing big has happened since 2001, almost 20 years. There’s 18 volcanoes and a lot of fault lines that haven’t gone off in awhile.There’s big earthquakes that happen offshore sometimes but they’re too far out to be felt usually. The entire west coast has been quiet for years. There hasn't even been a major earthquake in California. I believe the last decent moderate quake that was newsworthy was in 2007 in the Bay Area when I was living down there... 5.6 centred near where I was living at the time. A pretty good shake that tossed some things around in my apartment but no damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 I remember several months ago a bunch of 7.0s happened off the BC coast. I believe there was a tsunami warning for some coastal areas but it did not have much, if any impact. I believe it was last summer when there was a magnitude 6.4 off the coast of Oregon, there’s big 5.0 or 6.0 quakes that happen a few times a year. It’s been 319 years since the subduction Zone went off. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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