TacomaWaWx Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 The entire west coast has been quiet for years. There hasn't even been a major earthquake in California. I believe the last decent moderate quake that was newsworthy was in 2007 in the Bay Area when I was living down there... 5.6 centred near where I was living at the time. A pretty good shake that tossed some things around in my apartment but no damage. it could be tomorrow or 20 or 30 years but something’s bound to happen. I have a feeling something will probably happen in the next 10 years but there’s no way of knowing. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Tim-ism: Not enough to show the forest above the ridiculously large deck. Must show the lawn the size of wrigley field with said deck overlooking. Old trailer trash compensation? Me thinks maybe so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Nice day for some egg hunting! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Nice day for some egg hunting! I don't think I've ever seen the actual landscaping at your place! How long was it covered in snow? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Tim-ism: Not enough to show the forest above the ridiculously large deck. Must show the lawn the size of wrigley field with said deck overlooking. Old trailer trash compensation? Me thinks maybe so.I was trailer trash? Not quite that bad. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Here is my view this beautiful Easter morning. 1v6ik6.jpgNo wonder you’re broke. Get in shape, shave, and maybe you won’t have to pay. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 I find it incredible how some of the big forest fires can manage to burn through the winter in BC and then re-emerge from under the snow in the spring. Crews were working on 4 holdover fires from the big Alkali lake fire in northern BC last summer.That can’t be accurate? They’d smother and you’d also have snowmelt saturating the wood. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Let’s just get a big Niño out of the way rather than kicking the can down the for road another year of +ENSO conditions.I admit I’m starting to worry this might happen..the inception of full blown +QBO timed to the KW return isn’t niño friendly in the short term. Would push the big niño back by a year. The low pass signal is not establishing in the upper levels right now and until it does the outcome is murky. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Normally I might agree, but I feel we are primed for an amazing winter next time around if we avoid it. It could be a while before things align so nicely again. We just had a major Nino not that long ago and now weak warm ENSO for the past year. We're really not all that due for a big multi year Nino.Huh? Six out of the last 8 years have been -ENSO. We just had a multiyear niña in 2016/17 - 2017/18, following -ENSO from 2010/11 to 2013/14. The IPWP is still extended and will not retract until a niño can successfully drain/redistribute the thermal/mass load upon return. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Tim-ism: Not enough to show the forest above the ridiculously large deck. Must show the lawn the size of wrigley field with said deck overlooking. Old trailer trash compensation? Me thinks maybe so.You’re insufferable and obnoxious. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 You’re insufferable and obnoxious.Dome Buster’s insufferable!? That’s news to me. Must be those anti-patriot lies 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Wow, the days are sure long now. This wasn't shown on any of the models! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Wow, the days are sure long now. This wasn't shown on any of the models!It just popped up on them, I was shocked!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 That can’t be accurate? They’d smother and you’d also have snowmelt saturating the wood.Nope, happens pretty frequently when a fire burns deep underground http://bcfireinfo.for.gov.bc.ca/hprScripts/wildfirenews/DisplayArticle.asp?ID=3100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 I don't think I've ever seen the actual landscaping at your place! How long was it covered in snow? 41 straight days!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Nope happens pretty frequently when a fire burns deep undergroundI suppose if it’s porous enough for an open O^2 supply, then sublimation of snowcover could aid in that process via dissociation? I guess? Seems quite radical. Fuel moisture would have to increase substantially either way. Not sure what to think. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Wow, the days are sure long now. This wasn't shown on any of the models! Long days and cold weather seasonal lag = waste of daylight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Seems like a distant memory now. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Nice day. Cool evening. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 The entire west coast has been quiet for years. There hasn't even been a major earthquake in California. I believe the last decent moderate quake that was newsworthy was in 2007 in the Bay Area when I was living down there... 5.6 centred near where I was living at the time. A pretty good shake that tossed some things around in my apartment but no damage. There was a decent quake in CA around Christmas 2016. I remember it woke me up, as I was staying at my sister's house in Fresno that week. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 I suppose if it’s porous enough for an open O^2 supply, then sublimation of snowcover could aid in that process via dissociation? I guess? Seems quite radical. Fuel moisture would have to increase substantially either way. Not sure what to think.I think the limited oxygen supply is part of what makes this possible. The fires smoulder and burn the fuel supply slowly. If the oxygen was abundant they might burn thru that fuel supply more quickly and possibly burn themselves out. Many of The big fires in BC and the Fort Mac fire a few years ago have had flare ups the following spring and summer. In some cases more than 1 year after they started. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 I think the limited oxygen supply is part of what makes this possible. The fires smoulder and burn the fuel supply slowly. If the oxygen was abundant they might burn thru that fuel supply more quickly and possibly burn themselves out. Many of The big fires in BC and the Fort Mac fire a few years ago have had flare ups the following spring and summer. In some cases more than 1 year after they started. Definitely more common than people realize. It happened last spring where the Eagle Creek burn was in the Gorge. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 That’s a pretty sexy Aleutian/ Alaska ridge on the GFS. This place would be getting pretty busy if it was winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 I think the limited oxygen supply is part of what makes this possible. The fires smoulder and burn the fuel supply slowly. If the oxygen was abundant they might burn thru that fuel supply more quickly and possibly burn themselves out. Many of The big fires in BC and the Fort Mac fire a few years ago have had flare ups the following spring and summer. In some cases more than 1 year after they started.They probably reduce to smoldering embers with no flames at all. Doing some quick projections, the oxygen requirements would almost certainly be too high otherwise (if wood is what’s being burned). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 They probably reduce to smoldering embers with no flames at all. Doing some quick projections, the oxygen requirements would almost certainly be too high otherwise (if wood is what’s being burned).You’re over thinking this. “Holdover fires”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 That’s a pretty sexy Aleutian/ Alaska ridge on the GFS. This place would be getting pretty busy if it was winter. A cold front of this intensity in winter (double digit negative temperature anomalies for my area) would easily be snowy for the lowlands, no question about it. The highs on the 00z aren't in record territory, but they're close. However the 00z also suggests that this cold front is going to be temporary and will only last a few days. I hope so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 You’re over thinking this. “Holdover fires”.There are not flames burning underneath the snowpack (if that’s what you’re suggesting). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Simplified verbiage to aid public understanding. There are not flames burning underground, underneath the snowpack.There are no flames underground. Are there ever flames Underground? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 The persistence of the SE-ridge in the modeling is beginning to worry me. So far the progression is lining up well with the anti-Phil summer analogs. Don't worry, the west is due for a hot summer so you should be fine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 The 12z EPS depicts another jet extension starting later in week 2, which would morph warmer but inevitably wetter as well. A very different pattern this year, so far. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Maybe we’re getting this SE-ridge stuff out of the way early so we can avoid it during the dog days? Haha. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 That said, most guidance does finally get forcing into a more Pacific based wave-1 mode by May 5th, so at that point we’ll see what happens re: next cycle of WWBs, extended jet, middle latitude wavetrains. Could be quite revealing. If we’re still stuck with Aleutian High/SE-Ridge and continued western troughing by the middle of May, in spite of the above snd seasonal changes, safe to say there’s a good chance that’s the background state this summer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 That said, most guidance does finally get forcing into a more Pacific based wave-1 mode by May 5th, so at that point we’ll see what happens re: next cycle of WWBs, extended jet, middle latitude wavetrains. Could be quite revealing.If we’re still stuck with Aleutian High/SE-Ridge and continued western troughing by the middle of May, in spite of the above snd seasonal changes, safe to say there’s a good chance that’s the background state this summer.So what does this mean for PNW weather? Is the 1997 analog still alive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 So what does this mean for PNW weather? Is the 1997 analog still alive?Possibly. We’ll know within 4 weeks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 A lot more spread on the 00z GFS ensembles. Almost as many ridgy members as troughy in the 5-10 day period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 00z ECMWF is being released but I have to go to bed. Tell me how it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 00z ECMWF is being released but I have to go to bed. Tell me how it goes. I was an awesome release party. Very exciting. It came out in 24-hour increments to add to the suspense. You should have stayed up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Cool and clear this morning with a nice sunrise. 40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.