April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro slides the weekend trough mostly to our east compared to yesterday’s 12z. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a last minute collapse on the big trough scenario to be honest. Feels out of place.

Now looks just like the last few EPS runs... so its not surprising in that regard either.

 

Now the EPS will go in the opposite direction. Happens all the time.

[Jesse]

Now looks just like the last few EPS runs... so its not surprising in that regard either.

Now the EPS will go in the opposite direction. Happens all the time.

I thought the EPS was always rock steady?

[Jesse]

Today’s 12z Euro solution is probably what will verify. Or come close.

[TT-SEA]

I thought the EPS was always rock steady?

Yeah... I have seen it lead the other models and then completely flip and the lead in a different direction many times.

[Omegaraptor]

I guess there is enough in the soil that they can smoulder deep underground in old stumps and woody material for 6 months or more.

That’s what happened after Eagle Creek. The spring after the fire happened, there were small fires in the Gorge because small remnants of the fire smoldered for months.

[Deweydog]

Haven’t heard anything substantive from you in a while. What are your thoughts?

Sunday confessional:

 

I have not been looking at models lately. Pretty much anything I have on hand is from skimming through the spring spazziness here.

[Jesse]

The 12z Euro was like opening up a nice fabergé Easter egg and finding it to be filled with rabbit turds.

[snow_wizard]

The most impressive trade wind burst of the year is about to commence over the ENSO regions.  Corresponds nicely with a likely shift to -PNA.  Right now it appears we may get off without this turning into a major Nino.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I just mowed a long and very wet lawn... now its dry.

 

[Jesse]

Let’s just get a big Niño out of the way rather than kicking the can down the for road another year of +ENSO conditions.

[Farmboy]

Does anyone have a read on how the first week of May looks? Not liking the way the GFS seems to be extending the life of next weekend's trough.

[Farmboy]

The river is fed by the Carbon Glacier whose terminus is around 3,000’, making it the lowest elevation glacier in the lower 48.

Not to be nit-picky but my Green Trails map puts it at around 3,600 ft.. fwiw...

[Omegaraptor]

Does anyone have a read on how the first week of May looks? Not liking the way the GFS seems to be extending the life of next weekend's trough.

The Euro models are moving the trough to the east and into the plains. Let’s see if the GFS follows.

[Farmboy]

The Euro models are moving the trough to the east and into the plains. Let’s see if the GFS follows.

I'd like it to stay out of Idaho if possible...

[Omegaraptor]

I'd like it to stay out of Idaho if possible...

 

When are you coming to Idaho from Arizona?

[Farmboy]

When are you coming to Idaho from Arizona?

I'm in Jackpot, NV now. It was incredibly windy here yesterday evening, must've been 60 mph gusts.

[Jesse]

EPS seems to be at odds with the operational Euro. Looks more like the GFS.

[Farmboy]

The trend is not our friend.

[Farmboy]

The ball is in drunk uncle's court. Ugh.

[TT-SEA]

EPS seems to be at odds with the operational Euro. Looks more like the GFS.

 

 

For what period?

 

It looks much closer to the ECMWF operational run at day 8.    

 

 

EPS:

 

 

ECMWF:

 

 

 

GFS:

 

[TT-SEA]

Also does not look close to the 12Z GFS at day 10.   GFS was WAY colder.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But it also does not show a ridge like the ECMWF at day 10.

[TT-SEA]

I know... the 28 seconds it took me to copy a couple maps is completely melting down.    

[snow_wizard]

Let’s just get a big Niño out of the way rather than kicking the can down the for road another year of +ENSO conditions.

 

Normally I might agree, but I feel we are primed for an amazing winter next time around if we avoid it.  It could be a while before things align so nicely again.  We just had a major Nino not that long ago and now weak warm ENSO for the past year.  We're really not all that due for a big multi year Nino.

[snow_wizard]

I'm in Jackpot, NV now. It was incredibly windy here yesterday evening, must've been 60 mph gusts.

 

Jackpot.  What a name for a city in NV!

[snow_wizard]

That whole valley on the north side of Rainier is pretty scenic. Have you ever been up the Carbon River into the park. Some nice temperate rainforest up that way. The river is fed by the Carbon Glacier whose terminus is around 3,000’, making it the lowest elevation glacier in the lower 48.

 

I'm not sure if that is entirely correct or not.  There is a permanent snow field / glacier in Snohomish County at the bottom of Big 4 Mountain.  That is well below 3000 feet and is there because of an avalanche chute.

[Farmboy]

Well, the 18z gfs op looks pretty freaking cold to me. Hopefully it's just cuz he tied one on.

[Jesse]

I'm not sure if that is entirely correct or not. There is a permanent snow field / glacier in Snohomish County at the bottom of Big 4 Mountain. That is well below 3000 feet and is there because of an avalanche chute.

That isn’t technically a glacier though. It’s a perennial snowfield. I think the difference is a glaicer has to be compressed ice that is actually moving.

[Front Ranger]

Jackpot.  What a name for a city in NV!

 

I looked it up, it's literally right on the border with Idaho. Cactus Pete's Casino seems to be the main attraction!

[Farmboy]

I looked it up, it's literally right on the border with Idaho. Cactus Pete's Casino seems to be the main attraction!

Yeah, I'm staying at their rv park. It's a surprisingly nice place more akin to something you'd find in Reno or Vegas.

[ShawniganLake]

FWIW. I’m feeling a GFS win with the upcoming troughy goodies. At minimum a compromise seems likely with cold NW flow and some showery weather.

[Omegaraptor]

18z GFS looks chilly but not anywhere near the record breaker we saw with some of yesterday’s models.

 

At least for my area.

 

Past 240 continues chilly weather but I doubt all of it will verify. It is, after all, past 240.

[El_Nina]

Would be cool to see it cool again. Hope the GFS wins.

[antipex]

18Z GFS ensembles seem to be backing off on the trough intensity a bit...

 

[Jesse]

There is a god! Fitting He would make His presence known on Easter of all days...

[Blizzard777]

Right in the death path of a Rainier mudflow.

This is true if Rainer decides to get angry...Federal way will become an island. Mudflow will engulf the flats to my south and South-center area to my North if strong enough! Let’s hope that excitement doesn’t happen!

[Blizzard777]

I've always liked the area around Point Defiance to the narrows bridge too.

Point Defiance is filled with very smart fury critters stopping traffic for a snack!

[TacomaWaWx]

This is true if Rainer decides to get angry...Federal way will become an island. Mudflow will engulf the flats to my south and South-center area to my North if strong enough! Let’s hope that excitement doesn’t happen!

Some type of major geological event is bound to happen soon here in the PNW. Wether that be an earthquake or a volcano. Nothing big has happened since 2001, almost 20 years. There’s 18 volcanoes and a lot of fault lines that haven’t gone off in awhile.

There’s big earthquakes that happen offshore sometimes but they’re too far out to be felt usually.

[Omegaraptor]

Some type of major geological event is bound to happen soon here in the PNW. Wether that be an earthquake or a volcano. Nothing big has happened since 2001, almost 20 years. There’s 18 volcanoes and a lot of fault lines that haven’t gone off in awhile.

There’s big earthquakes that happen offshore sometimes but they’re too far out to be felt usually.

 

I remember several months ago a bunch of 7.0s happened off the BC coast. I believe there was a tsunami warning for some coastal areas but it did not have much, if any impact.

[antipex]

Some type of major geological event is bound to happen soon here in the PNW. Wether that be an earthquake or a volcano. Nothing big has happened since 2001, almost 20 years. There’s 18 volcanoes and a lot of fault lines that haven’t gone off in awhile.

There’s big earthquakes that happen offshore sometimes but they’re too far out to be felt usually.

 

The entire west coast has been quiet for years. There hasn't even been a major earthquake in California. I believe the last decent moderate quake that was newsworthy was in 2007 in the Bay Area when I was living down there... 5.6 centred near where I was living at the time. A pretty good shake that tossed some things around in my apartment but no damage.

[TacomaWaWx]

I remember several months ago a bunch of 7.0s happened off the BC coast. I believe there was a tsunami warning for some coastal areas but it did not have much, if any impact.

I believe it was last summer when there was a magnitude 6.4 off the coast of Oregon, there’s big 5.0 or 6.0 quakes that happen a few times a year. It’s been 319 years since the subduction Zone went off.