June 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Storms definitely about to move through. Best of it will be heading west of here, but it’s definitely gonna rain. Not sure if there’s much lightning, though.

 

Unfortunately, you continue to get screwed.  The line is breaking up where it will pass through Dubuque.  The last HRRR run before bedtime last night showed this.  It had the west end of the line holding together and maybe even dropping west of CR.  We are nearly 2 inches of rain below avg for June, so we could use a soaker.

[Niko]

22:30 here and still 85°F. Disgusting. Guess Summer had to come at some point.

 

We have a shot at 100 tomorrow. With a forecasted high of 98 it's not far fetched. Humidity may actually be a hindering factor in that.

This will be unbearable for just about any outdoor activity outside. UGH! ......wayyyyy too hot and sultry!!

[East Dubzz]

Unfortunately, you continue to get screwed. The line is breaking up where it will pass through Dubuque. The last HRRR run before bedtime last night showed this. It had the west end of the line holding together and maybe even dropping west of CR. We are nearly 2 inches of rain below avg for June, so we could use a soaker.

Yup. That’s exactly what’s happening. This is getting ridiculous.

[Hawkeye]

Waterloo is about to get nailed by at least heavy rain.  The back part of the line is slower moving and oriented more favorably for big rain totals.

[East Dubzz]

Wow, I mean it just completely fell apart. Almost identical to yesterday.

[Minny_Weather]

Warmest morning of the season so far. Saving grace is that there's actually a cool breeze. That breeze wont be feeling so cool later today. 78.3*F.

[Hawkeye]

Just got a big wind gust from the outflow.

 

The heavy stuff continues to migrate westward along the line because the best fuel is in central Iowa.  I'm afraid I will only get a couple tenths of an inch.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like I will indeed make it through the month of June without a severe thunderstorm warning yet this year.

[Hawkeye]

We are still getting 30-40 mph gusts ten minutes behind the outflow bounary.

[Stormy]

Yup I can see towers building well off to my west and visible satellite confirms that. Also radar now. Shucks I might get screwed as well. Was hoping the western edge builds due south toward CR & IC, and as Hawkeye stated that’s where the heaviest totals usually occur. Man, I wasn’t expecting it to go sw! Happens only once in awhile.

[Bellona]

Got a very nice storm in Waterloo. Lost power from gust front before the storms. A few pieces of hail but lots of wind and rain. I'm anxious to see how much we wind up with!

[Andie]

Very odd to see ENSO 3.4 readings crash when the SOI is in the tank...in fact, over the last week, doesn't it look like the entire scope of the planets oceans are cooling??

 

 

 

It's remarkable to be honest.

I need to do some digging on this. I recall reading something not long ago on the oceanic circulation.

Wish I had posted it.

[Hawkeye]

Cripes, the line totally crapped out before reaching CR.  What a terrible month for storms/rain.

[Stormy]

Cripes, the line totally crapped out before reaching CR.  What a terrible month for storms/rain.

Shucks, was hoping you guys up north would get something for once. Sure close to CR though with the heavy cell just west of you! The outflow surged through here about 10 minutes ago, but it calmed down already.

[Stormy]

@ James

 

You get anything? Lots of rain?

[Hawkeye]

Jeez, the dividing line is the county line just barely west of Cedar Rapids.  There is a heavy cell on the other side of the line while CR gets nothing.  This pretty well encapsulates the entire season.

[Stormy]

At least it won’t be so hot right away!

[james1976]

@ James

 

You get anything? Lots of rain?

I drove right into it on my way to work in Janesville. A bit of lightning and thunder but mostly heavy rain and gusty wind. When I left my home in Aplington it wasnt raining yet so I'm not sure what I received.

[Andie]

Went back and dug some.

The cooling ocean has some interesting origins and affects.

The oceanic conveyor has been slowing in the Atlantic, but there is also a very cold spot in the Pacific. Considering that water at the depths of the oceans takes about 6-700 years to return to the surface, the current surface water hasn't been here since Charlamegne was Holy Roman Emperor.

When you add ocean temps to the lack of sunspots we are currently experiencing it gets real interesting. I've read articles on how our sun will generally remain cooler for the next 3-5 decades. Overall, a very dynamic situation with no 1 smoking gun.

 

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a25781337/ocean-colder-climate-change-little-ice-age/

 

Climate change is causing the oceans to warm at an alarming rate, but new research finds that not all the water in the oceans is actually getting warmer. According to new research, deep in the Pacific one region is actually getting colder. This decreasing temperature in the ocean depths is also caused by climate change, but not the modern kind we’re so familiar with. Instead, this cooling is caused by a minor ice age that happened hundreds of years ago.

 

https://www.climatedepot.com/2018/02/08/solar-minimum-may-bring-50-years-of-global-cooling/

 

Reduced sunspot activity has been observed and indicates the sun is heading into a 50 year reduced solar activity similar to what happened in the mid-17th century.

Comparison to similar stars indicates the reduced activity will cause 0.25% less UV for 50 years.

Modelling indicates that this will cause a few tenths of a degree of cooling.

This will counteract global warming for 50 years.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/11/the-oceans-circulation-hasnt-been-this-sluggish-in-1000-years-thats-bad-news/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1c46b1ed99b0

 

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has declined in strength by 15 percent since the mid-20th century to a “new record low,” the scientists conclude in a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Nature. That’s a decrease of 3 million cubic meters of water per second, the equivalent of nearly 15 Amazon rivers.

[East Dubzz]

Jeez, the dividing line is the county line just barely west of Cedar Rapids. There is a heavy cell on the other side of the line while CR gets nothing. This pretty well encapsulates the entire season.

Indeed. Like I said the other days, getting nickel & dimed with rain showers it seems. Lots of days have had rain, but we haven’t gotten much exciting action. My garden probably prefers it that way, but my weather tracking habit does not.

[Hawkeye]

Radar shows a bit of general rotation in the line just west of CR, which is causing a section of the line nw of CR to flare up and move a bit eastward.  However, radar also shows the sinking air behind the line rapidly approaching from the north.  It's a race and it appears the sinking air will win.  The west edge of CR may get a brief downpour.

[james1976]

A report from Waverly of 2 1/2 inches in 50min.

[Hawkeye]

Wow, the thin little enhancement in the line actually made it into western CR, so I'm seeing decently heavy rain.

[OKwx2k4]

Very odd to see ENSO 3.4 readings crash when the SOI is in the tank...in fact, over the last week, doesn't it look like the entire scope of the planets oceans are cooling??

 

 

 

That's a dramatic flip in 2 weeks everywhere.

[OKwx2k4]

Went back and dug some.

The cooling ocean has some interesting origins and affects.

The oceanic conveyor has been slowing in the Atlantic, but there is also a very cold spot in the Pacific. Considering that water at the depths of the oceans takes about 6-700 years to return to the surface, the current surface water hasn't been here since Charlamegne was Holy Roman Emperor.

When you add ocean temps to the lack of sunspots we are currently experiencing it gets real interesting. I've read articles on how our sun will generally remain cooler for the next 3-5 decades. Overall, a very dynamic situation with no 1 smoking gun.

 

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a25781337/ocean-colder-climate-change-little-ice-age/

 

Climate change is causing the oceans to warm at an alarming rate, but new research finds that not all the water in the oceans is actually getting warmer. According to new research, deep in the Pacific one region is actually getting colder. This decreasing temperature in the ocean depths is also caused by climate change, but not the modern kind we’re so familiar with. Instead, this cooling is caused by a minor ice age that happened hundreds of years ago.

 

https://www.climatedepot.com/2018/02/08/solar-minimum-may-bring-50-years-of-global-cooling/

 

Reduced sunspot activity has been observed and indicates the sun is heading into a 50 year reduced solar activity similar to what happened in the mid-17th century.

Comparison to similar stars indicates the reduced activity will cause 0.25% less UV for 50 years.

Modelling indicates that this will cause a few tenths of a degree of cooling.

This will counteract global warming for 50 years.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/11/the-oceans-circulation-hasnt-been-this-sluggish-in-1000-years-thats-bad-news/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1c46b1ed99b0

 

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has declined in strength by 15 percent since the mid-20th century to a “new record low,” the scientists conclude in a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Nature. That’s a decrease of 3 million cubic meters of water per second, the equivalent of nearly 15 Amazon rivers.

Great research. The question standing here is this. We know of cycles. Some are 30 years, some 40, some 120, etc... what happens if the patterns all cross at the same time?

 

Thinking here is something to the effect of a semi-linear chaotic double pendulum, if anyone knows what that is or does.

[Stormy]

This is frustrating when it’s so close, but not quite making it yet. It’s hitting a wall at the Iowa county line Very heavy just to my west, now sw. with decent lightning.

[Tom]

Went back and dug some.

The cooling ocean has some interesting origins and affects.

The oceanic conveyor has been slowing in the Atlantic, but there is also a very cold spot in the Pacific. Considering that water at the depths of the oceans takes about 6-700 years to return to the surface, the current surface water hasn't been here since Charlamegne was Holy Roman Emperor.

When you add ocean temps to the lack of sunspots we are currently experiencing it gets real interesting. I've read articles on how our sun will generally remain cooler for the next 3-5 decades. Overall, a very dynamic situation with no 1 smoking gun.

 

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a25781337/ocean-colder-climate-change-little-ice-age/

 

Climate change is causing the oceans to warm at an alarming rate, but new research finds that not all the water in the oceans is actually getting warmer. According to new research, deep in the Pacific one region is actually getting colder. This decreasing temperature in the ocean depths is also caused by climate change, but not the modern kind we’re so familiar with. Instead, this cooling is caused by a minor ice age that happened hundreds of years ago.

 

https://www.climatedepot.com/2018/02/08/solar-minimum-may-bring-50-years-of-global-cooling/

 

Reduced sunspot activity has been observed and indicates the sun is heading into a 50 year reduced solar activity similar to what happened in the mid-17th century.

Comparison to similar stars indicates the reduced activity will cause 0.25% less UV for 50 years.

Modelling indicates that this will cause a few tenths of a degree of cooling.

This will counteract global warming for 50 years.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/11/the-oceans-circulation-hasnt-been-this-sluggish-in-1000-years-thats-bad-news/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1c46b1ed99b0

 

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has declined in strength by 15 percent since the mid-20th century to a “new record low,” the scientists conclude in a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Nature. That’s a decrease of 3 million cubic meters of water per second, the equivalent of nearly 15 Amazon rivers.

 

A number of weeks ago I commented on how the deep waters of the western PAC had a large cold pool expanding, which contracted some in recent weeks, but is showing signs again of expanding.  The article you posted is rather interesting and fascinating if indeed we are seeing the deep oceans "awaken" and transport colder waters to the surface.

 

Here is the latest SST animation of the equatorial PAC ocean...

 

[Stormy]

Continuous thunder from that now severe warned cell to my sw. Nice lowering not long ago.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up a not-terrible 0.34" from the line, with most of that coming from the second cell.  At least now I won't have to water the garden today or maybe even tomorrow.  I'll take it.

[Hawkeye]

I don't think we'll be getting hot humid today.  It might warm decently later this afternoon, but it's quite cool now behind the storms.

[East Dubzz]

Only 0.07" today, on top of 0.07" yesterday as well. Considering how the storms looked heading into my area, incredible how little rain we ended up getting. 

[Andie]

A number of weeks ago I commented on how the deep waters of the western PAC had a large cold pool expanding, which contracted some in recent weeks, but is showing signs again of expanding. The article you posted is rather interesting and fascinating if indeed we are seeing the deep oceans "awaken" and transport colder waters to the surface.

 

Here is the latest SST animation of the equatorial PAC ocean...

 

I have read they are in constant flux, much like a pump.

They fuel the conveyor, thus the atmosphere and the climate.

I recall from like 2003, reading a Cambridge Univ ocean study on the Atlantic portion of the conveyor that claimed one of the several “pumps” had stalled. Perhaps the colder Atlantic is just now exhibiting the affect from that.

I need to find that study. I was really surprised when I read it. All of this simply confirms a complex cyclic pattern.

[Tom]

More missions approved by NASA to study our Star...the Sun...gee, I wonder why???

 

https://bgr.com/2019/06/27/sun-mission-nasa-2022-punch-tracers/

[CentralNebWeather]

Just placed in a heat advisory for Saturday. Heat index of 100-107. I would much rather be posting about a wind chill advisory or winter storm watch.

[snowstorm83]

Dew points are generally in the 73-76 range in Eastern NE with temps in the 90s. Not complaining too much since it took until almost July to get this bad. 

[Niko]

Radar showed a severe t'stm warning just south of my area, missed me by just a couple of miles. Geez.Would have been a doozy of a storm.

[Andie]

Tom,

I am having difficulty finding the article from ~2003.

The University of Cambridge published regarding a study on the oceanic conveyor in March 2019 and are working with Columbia.

It indicates clear climate change precursors provided by the ocean that point to climatic shifts.

They know it is changing but are working to develop better models.

 

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/changes-in-ocean-conveyor-belt-predicted-abrupt-climate-changes

 

 

Deep-water circulation changes lead North Atlantic climate during deglaciation

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09237-3

[OKwx2k4]

Tom,

I am having difficulty finding the article from ~2003.

The University of Cambridge published regarding a study on the oceanic conveyor in March 2019 and are working with Columbia.

It indicates clear climate change precursors provided by the ocean that point to climatic shifts.

They know it is changing but are working to develop better models.

 

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/changes-in-ocean-conveyor-belt-predicted-abrupt-climate-changes

 

 

Deep-water circulation changes lead North Atlantic climate during deglaciation

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09237-3

I have read these things before too. Years ago, but couldn't really remember well enough to quote them.

[Stormhunter87]

Lots of great research posted thanks! Made it down to Branson today with the family. A little warm but beautiful out!

[Stormy]

Just placed in a heat advisory for Saturday. Heat index of 100-107. I would much rather be posting about a wind chill advisory or winter storm watch.

Well if that’s the case and we wouldn’t have summer, after awhile there would be mass starvation and life would cease to exist as we know it! But yeah I know what you’re talking about.lol