Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Unfortunately the 06z scaled back on next week’s rainfall. Hope to see subsequent runs being it back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Sky is getting brighter now... hopefully that ULL can at least provide some decent mixing today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Unfortunately the 06z scaled back on next week’s rainfall. Hope to see subsequent runs being it back. 12Z run looks like the 06Z run so far... through Thursday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 1983 was a super strong El Nino, so I'm guessing the sea surface temperatures were probably more like Hawaii than Southern California and that accounted for the well above average lows and highs that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 12z GFS keeps that Greenland block cranking. As long as that thing is present, the 4CH should remain suppressed, given the structure of the EPAC ITCZ/HC, irrespective of run-to-run variability. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 PDX at one point last night was reporting smoke from all the fireworks. Just noticed that SEA went to down to visibility of 4 miles with haze in the 10 p.m. - midnight period last night as well. No doubt from fireworks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 In addition to the marine layer... there is a thick layer of haze and the smell of fireworks here probably due to very little mixing which is trapping it all in the valley. Pretty gross morning out there.That happened here last night too (thanks to the 75/75, 100% humidity airmass). Particulate concentration surpassed 500ugm^3 and there was aerosol induced condensation smothering the landscape. The fireworks at the mall were almost completely blocked out by the smog at one point. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Anybody want a hot dog?Is it too late? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Cloudy and 61F in the s valley this morning. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 12z GFS keeps that Greenland block cranking. As long as that thing is present, the 4CH should remain suppressed, given the structure of the EPAC ITCZ/HC, irrespective of run-to-run variability. Models have been consistently moving forward with the timing of the 4CH emerging soon. EPS for day 6. Certainly a bit later than usual. Although it really didn't get cranking in several recent years until July. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Models have been consistently moving forward with the timing of the 4CH emerging soon. EPS for day 6. ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_7.png Certainly a bit later than usual. Although it really didn't get cranking in several recent years until July. It is suppressed to the south and east compared to recent years, though. I think that's what he meant. I don't think there has ever been a year where it's never formed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Models have been consistently moving forward with the timing of the 4CH emerging soon. EPS for day 6. ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_7.png Certainly a bit later than usual. Although it really didn't get cranking in several recent years until July.Eh, looks more like a temporary response to the CCKW passage, right? The background state doesn’t look conducive to a strong 4CH at all, in my opinion. And even when it flares up with the shorter term cycles in forcing, it has been more suppressed. Of course it will briefly/intermittently strengthen even in years when it’s generally weaker than average. But that’s a given for almost anything as it relates to weather. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 It is suppressed to the south and east compared to recent years, though. I think that's what he meant. I don't think there has ever been a year where it's never formed.Yeah, I never implied it wouldn’t exist or flare up episodically. It always does. But this year, due to factors discussed earlier, it’s generally weaker, and/or suppressed equatorward, depending on the structure of the convection and AAM budget/transports. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 This could change in August, as nonlinear forcing conduits open up via the acceleration of tropical activity across the WHEM, but it also might have the opposite effect depending on timing/freq of waves & the wavenumber at the time. I don’t have the answer. August/September are always the most vulnerable to this behavior as the seasonal cycle itself is somewhat belated nowadays, but it doesn’t necessarily have to continue. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Unfortunately the 06z scaled back on next week’s rainfall. Hope to see subsequent runs being it back.Because nothing screams mid July like a rainy week... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 This could change in August, as nonlinear forcing conduits open up via the acceleration of tropical activity across the WHEM, but it also might have the opposite effect depending on timing/freq of waves & the wavenumber at the time.Blowtorch August? It’s been awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Some nice ensembles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Haha... https://www.kgw.com/mobile/article/news/nation-world/alaskas-largest-city-has-hit-90-degrees-for-the-first-time-ever/283-90fa53f2-89a8-48d7-ae2d-378f325365d0 The global warming freaks are gonna when they see this one! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 12Z ECMWF scaled back the precip for Wednesday even more than the 00Z run. It shows very little even in WA that day... and much warmer than the 00Z run as well. Probably mid to upper 70s in the Seattle area and low 80s from Portland southward. And then slightly warmer on Thursday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Blowtorch August? It’s been awhile.I’m not sure I’d go that far. Again, for whatever it’s worth, the correlation between the early season northern annular mode and mid/late summer wavetrain suggests a *relatively* cool August (similar to July, perhaps) but the trends in WPAC warm pool/ITCZ seasonality over recent decades would suggest the opposite. The WPAC is hard to ignore given it’s the most prolific heat engine on the planet, through which many emergent system states are born. So far, however, the annular mode correlation appears to be holding for the month of July, with big heat being tougher to come by. The WPAC has (and continues) to try and flip us back to that +NAO/+TNH pattern, but has been unsuccessful in doing so to this point. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Overall still no real heat waves coming up for the first half of July. It’s been a nice first 5 weeks or so of the summer. Maybe even a bit of rain coming again next week though it’s hard to say how much or if it’ll pan out. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 I’m not sure I’d go that far. Again, for whatever it’s worth, the correlation between the early season northern annular mode and mid/late summer wavetrain suggests a *relatively* cool August (similar to July, perhaps) but the trends in WPAC warm pool/ITCZ seasonality over recent decades would suggest the opposite. The WPAC is hard to ignore given it’s the most prolific heat engine on the planet, through which many emergent system states are born. So far, however, the annular mode correlation appears to be holding for the month of July, with big heat being tougher to come by. The WPAC has (and continues) to try and flip us back to that +NAO/+TNH pattern, but has been unsuccessful in doing so to this point. This whole post kind of just cancels itself out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Because nothing screams mid July like a rainy week...I get you’re being sarcastic, but this statement is actually 100% correct for much (if not most) of the country, where rainfall peaks during July. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 I get you’re being sarcastic, but this statement is actually 100% correct for much (if not most) of the country, where rainfall peaks during July. He is specifically referring to PNW climo in July of course... because this is a PNW weather forum. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 This whole post kind of just cancels itself out.How so? I’m saying I don’t know what the outcome will be in August, and there are reasons to favor both the “cool” outcomes and “warm” outcomes. I tend to cling to the West-Pacific machine as the origin for emergent states, but the aforementioned wavetrain correlations have a nearly unbroken record in recent decades. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 He is specifically referring to PNW climo in July of course... because this is a PNW weather forum.I get that. It’s just funny to me with the broad context. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Pretty solid Euro run overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Is it too late?Sorry. Summer’s over dude. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 I get that. It’s just funny to me with the broad context.It was written in the context of a PNW July... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 It was written in the context of a PNW July...Over two weeks of 90 degree weather in a month doesn’t fit within the context of a normal PNW July either, but that’s what happened last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 It is suppressed to the south and east compared to recent years, though. I think that's what he meant. I don't think there has ever been a year where it's never formed. Of course, and I wasn't inferring that he said it would be non-existent. It just looks very normal to me at this point, albeit running a little late. I also think the 4CH has absorbed an unfair amount of the blame for recent warm seasons in the PNW. A strong, early forming 4CH almost always leads to big monsoon seasons in the SW, and they've been hit and miss recently. In addition, if you look at the actual 500 mb anomalies for some of the warmest summer months the PNW has seen, it's clear they were due more to big/persistent west coast ridging that wasn't actually an extension of a strong 4CH. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Eh, looks more like a temporary response to the CCKW passage, right? The background state doesn’t look conducive to a strong 4CH at all, in my opinion. And even when it flares up with the shorter term cycles in forcing, it has been more suppressed. Of course it will briefly/intermittently strengthen even in years when it’s generally weaker than average. But that’s a given for almost anything as it relates to weather. Maybe...we'll see how things develop over the next month. But I'm still not convinced the 4CH is as big a factor as some seem to think for summer heat in the PNW. When above normal heights are displaced near the PNW, average or below normal heights tend to dominate the Great Basin/SW/southern Rockies. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Lots of overcast and rain lovers here. Some people just cannot tolerate the summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Lots of overcast and rain lovers here. Some people just cannot tolerate the summer.You keep posting in the wrong thread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Maybe...we'll see how things develop over the next month. But I'm still not convinced the 4CH is as big a factor as some seem to think for summer heat in the PNW. When above normal heights are displaced near the PNW, average or below normal heights tend to dominate the Great Basin/SW/southern Rockies.Agreement from above the fray! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Lots of overcast and rain lovers here. Some people just cannot tolerate the summer. lol nothing like someone from a different region of the country trying to tell people they shouldn’t or should prefer certain weather pattern because they don’t like a certain weather pattern where they live. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 Agreement from above the fray! A beefed up 4CH plays a role in very long episodes of heat around here, though. Especially when it merges with the EPAC ridge. Seems that has happened a lot in the recent hot summers we have seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 You keep posting in the wrong thread.So does Phil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 So does PhilYeah but he adds valuable information sometimes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 5, 2019 Report Share Posted July 5, 2019 12Z EPS: 5-10 day mean... 10-15 day mean... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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