September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Currently at 54F w cloudy skies. Feels awesome outside. Bigggg warm-up coming along w t'stms this week ( and most of the week).

[Niko]

That moreso applies to longer-range forecasts though. Usually they're less warm biased for mid-range outlooks like the ones posted above.

These people that work at NOAA are nuts. Last Winter my area was expecting for I.E., 6"+ and had me under a WWA instead of WSW. Same with Jasters area. This happened multiple times in the Winter also, not just once.

[Hawkeye]

Cedar Rapids, except for the far north side, has gotten lucky this morning.  There has mostly been just one band of good rain and it tracked right through the city.  I've picked up another 0.78".  Combined with yesterday, I've received 1.29".

[Iowawx]

Cedar Rapids, except for the far north side, has gotten lucky this morning. There has mostly been just one band of good rain and it tracked right through the city. I've picked up another 0.78". Combined with yesterday, I've received 1.29".

Yes, total dud on the northeast side. Only about 0.10”. Hopefully we get more later today/tonight.

[westMJim]

Here at my house the current temperature is 61 with cloudy skies. The low here at my house overnight was 54 while at the airport the low was 53. Yesterdays H/L at GRR was 67/53. For today the average H/L at GRR is 76/55 the record high is 95 set in 1897 and the record low is 37 set in 1975. The warmest minimum was 71 in 1924 and the coldest maximum was 59 set in 1924.  Last year the H/L was 69/53.

[westMJim]

According to Bill Stiffen (Local TV met) the departure from average for the 1^st 8 months this year has been -1.2° from the 30 year average. And of course there had only been one month (July) that has been warmer then average so far this year. (that may mean the late fall and next winter could be warmer then average?). And according to Bill there has been 30.47” of Precipitation so far this year although there has only been 0.21” so far this September. And so far this year Grand Rapids has had 44.2% of possible sunshine we should have had 50.6% at this time.

[Niko]

The latest on Dorian and the last report......

 

Updated on: September 9, 2019 / 10:13 AM

/ CBS News

 

"Fully extra-tropical" Dorian is out to sea - finally:

 

The U.S. National Hurricane Center declared what was Hurricane Dorian "fully extra-tropical" in what the center said would be its last advisory on the storm.

 

As of 11 p.m. EDT Sunday, the center said Dorian's core was "over the cold waters of the Labrador Sea" off Canada. It was about 375 miles north of Cape Race, Newfoundland, racing east-northeast at 24 mph with tropical storm-force winds of 60 mph. It was expected to keep weakening and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system Tuesday.

[jaster220]

I feel bad posting this right after Jaster’s last post about his drought. Our second wettest year-to-date on record continues this upcoming week. Save some of this for Dec-Mar.

 

It's okay. You can take it now, we'll take it Dec-Mar 

[OKwx2k4]

If I had my choosing I'd rather have below avg precip in winter. Typically means I didn't get left on the rainy side of all those da*n stupid cutters for four years. Lol. Sorry, I've resented the last 4 years of winters a bit, if no one can tell.

 

I like my rain with a 1"/10" ratio at around 28°. Takes less water to amaze me that way. Lol.

[Tom]

The first opening week of September has opened quite cool/cold from the MW and points N and E into the GL's.  A lot of these BN departures will be eaten away over the next week across the MW and lower GL's, esp when you take into account very warm overnight temps.  

 

 

 

[Niko]

Mostly cloudy conditions attm w temps holding in the mid 60s (66F). A fairly cool day. Temps are not climbing outta the 60s today.

[St Paul Storm]

It's okay. You can take it now, we'll take it Dec-Mar

I’d rather have the precip in winter too. Green grass is overrated. A mountain of snow is not.

 

I’m rooting for you this winter buddy.

[Stormy]

The warm front is moving through soon. Sunshine and humid in the past hour. Heard occasional thunder a few times since dawn, but only a few hundredths of rain since last evening. CR.got lucky with 2 or 3 storms moving through. Thought the south side might’ve gotten 1” or more? Might not see any more rainfall down here for a few days unless storms can build southward.

 

Edit: Actually, the warm front has moved north of me already.

[Stormy]

Here’s the latest MD. Tornado watch likely.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1941.html

[Stormy]

Tornado watch has been issued and it’s just so my county is included. I’m in the south part of the county so barely in the watch and technically not included, though north of I-80 is. I’m hoping storms to wsw. can move east enough for my area, but I’m not to hopeful.

[james1976]

I'm right in the middle of the Tornado watch

[james1976]

Severe thunderstorm warning right now. Getting dark with thunder in the distance.

[james1976]

Storming good. Gotta be at least 50mph gusts. A lot of leaves are flying off the trees. Nice storm. Raining hard too

[james1976]

Getting another severe t-storm as i speak! Pounding rain and very windy. This one has more lightning and thnunder with it. Been a very active evening over here.

[Stormy]

To bad these storms are occurring in pretty narrow swaths today.

[Hawkeye]

Waterloo is getting some good stuff tonight.  Models have flirted with a bit of a pop along the line down to CR, but I'm not expecting it.

[Stormy]

That’s a hot,but narrow line of storms northwest of CR.

[james1976]

A lot of reports of trees down and some power lines down around the area. Pretty wild night

[Iowawx]

Waterloo is getting some good stuff tonight.  Models have flirted with a bit of a pop along the line down to CR, but I'm not expecting it.

Isn’t it crazy how many times Cedar Rapids has been missed by severe thunderstorms? I am so sick of it. We did not get any severe thunderstorms at all this summer. Yet again tonight, absolutely screwed.

[jaster220]

Nice to see some are getting some rain and/or storms. My local grid has increasing chances of T-storms for the week, but my luck with those has been nothing short of horrid. I need a good ol' fashioned autumn strati-form soaker (or two). 

[james1976]

Tornado Warning right now Benton/Buchanan counties SE of Waterloo

[jaster220]

I’d rather have the precip in winter too. Green grass is overrated. A mountain of snow is not.

 

I’m rooting for you this winter buddy.

 

Thx man! Not only has it been a few seasons without a big ticket item, I was let-down last winter. I kinda bought into the talk about an epic season with the weak Nino in play. Nov was great then "poof" it acted more like a moderate Nino. At least it was a great year for those further west and I'm glad for you guys that did get it. Better than an '11-12 where everyone's on the sidelines. 

[jaster220]

Outta nowhere small cell pound-town attm. Truly shocking! 

[james1976]

Picked up 0.80" from this evening's storms

[Stormy]

[Stormy]

A few loud cracks of thunder and a brief downpour. Might get clipped by another cell.

 

Other cells to the west of CR seem to be gaining a bit of strength.

[Hawkeye]

At the very last second, the tail end of this line blew up and is dropping very heavy rain on Cedar Rapids.  It won't last long, but it's currently pounding.

[Tom]

Just drove my father to ORD and noticed a vivid lightning show to my west and north.  This morning has quite the summery feel in the air.  We have a nice southerly breeze and noticeable humid air (74F/65F).  It actually felt kinda nice driving with the windows down and to be able to feel the warmth.  Quite a contrast compared to the chilly mornings we have had and I'm actually enjoying it.  I'm debating whether or not to go back to bed or just continue on with my morning???  #decisions

[Tom]

1st snows of the season are in the forecast across the N Rockies over the next couple days as an autumn storm takes shape over the inter-mountain west and cuts NW into the Upper MW.  This isn't the last storm to target the same areas as I'm anticipating another strong storm 9/16-9/19.  Does this storm rearrange the N.A. pattern???  I think we head into an amplified 500mb pattern post storm and a shift into a much cooler regime.  Lot's of interesting things going on in the N PAC over the next couple weeks and there may be another re-curving Typhoon or Tropical system near Japan in the Day 7-10 period that has peaked my interests.

 

 

 

 

 

So, while we get a taste of late season warmth in a month that can be quite volatile, it sure is going to pick up in activity around these parts mid/late month.  There are going to be some strong Autumn storms and CF's in the near future.  Models are starting to pick up on this idea and I fully expect a swift transition post 21st back into Autumn and this time our southern folks will get a taste later this month.  

[westMJim]

The rain gauge was dry this AM so my report for yesterday on rain fall is 0.  The overnight low both here at my house and at the airport was 62.  The H/L at GRR yesterday was 69/55. For today September 10^th the record H/L at Grand Rapids is 94 set in 2013 the record low is 36 set in 1969. The warmest minimum was a very warm for September 77 set in 2013. The record coolest maximum is 56 set in 1940. Last year the H/L was 73/54

[Bryan1117]

Isn’t it crazy how many times Cedar Rapids has been missed by severe thunderstorms? I am so sick of it. We did not get any severe thunderstorms at all this summer. Yet again tonight, absolutely screwed.

Feeling your pain here where I live too (SW side of Omaha). We have been missed by every direction in my backyard seemingly the last few nights. Missed out on decent storms by 10 miles to the south over the weekend, and then by 10 miles to the north last night.

 

Over the last week I have seen barely 0.10” of rain, this pattern sucks. What a lousy summer for storms here.

[Hawkeye]

The overnight cell that passed through here only lasted about five minutes, but it dropped 0.25" of rain.  That boosts my 3-day rain total to 1.59".

[Niko]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI355 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-110830-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-355 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThere is a chance of thunderstorms north of M-59 today as a frontalboundary will be in the vicinity, with a slight chance ofthunderstorms tonight spreading south toward the southern Michiganborder. Thunderstorms that develop could be strong, producing windgusts to 50 mph and small hail, along with heavy rainfall. Even astray severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts to 60 mph and one inchhail can not be ruled out in the 4 to 10 pm window. Storm motionlooks to be east 25 mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through MondayThere is a continued chance of thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.The best chance for strong thunderstorms appears to focus Wednesdayafternoon and then again on Friday.

[Niko]

Outta nowhere small cell pound-town attm. Truly shocking! 

Yayyyyy.....There ya go buddy!

[Niko]

Currently at 75F and a dew of 65F, which makes it a little uncomfortable being outside. Highs approaching low 80s today.

 

As far as the warmth goes IMBY, its now lowered to highs being in the lower 80s instead, but humid and a decent chance of pm storms throughout most of the week.