GDR Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 28 and everything white from frost this morning 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Lakeshore Flood Warning Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 249 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 MIZ070-262030- /O.NEW.KDTX.LS.W.0016.191026T1800Z-191027T1200Z/ Macomb- 249 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a Lakeshore Flood Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Sunday. * Lake Shore Flooding...Southeast winds will develop this afternoon and increase during the course of the evening. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 MPH are possible across Lake St Clair. The persistence of these winds and the high lake levels are expected to cause the water to rise to 61 inches above low water datum or higher. Based on the wind direction, the higher water levels are expected along the shoreline in Saint Clair Shores and Harrison Township. The wind direction will switch to the southwest Sunday morning, pushing the higher water levels to the other side of the lake. * Impacts...The combination of rising water levels and wave action will cause flooding along the shoreline of the lake. Moderate to perhaps briefly heavy rain this evening may hinder flood mitigation efforts. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 HRRR has some 10m gusts at +/- 65 mph in C IL 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 HRRR has some 10m gusts at +/- 65 mph in C IL Holy mackerel! That ULL is legit. 20191026 10z hrrr 10m Gusts at 4z Sunday.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Heavy frost/freeze even in mby as KRMY bottomed out at 31F. At work office this morning and the harvested bean fields looked like snow covering them. I had to head up near Frankenmuth yesterday and will say that the peaking colors were very very vibrant the entire way. Tbh, I don't recall them being this good downstate. Anyhow, late but very nice colors while they last. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 One key flaw off the GEFS I'm seeing this season is its obvious progressiveness. Check out the current 7 day precip anamoly period and the trends over the last 4 runs. Then look at the Day 4-10 period....pretty bad bias I'd say... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 GFS past 4 runs = lower the boom (factor) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 The front has left us with 48* at 11 am. A High of 68 expected. We'll see. Low tonight 47*. Olga out in the GOM Brings some severe weather and flooding to the Deep South. There was a good deal of flooding in Austin, Texas with these storms as well. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Winds are beginning to pick up out of the East, leaves are falling off the trees as the gusts come through....rain is knocking on my doorstep...it's going to be a raw, windy and wet afternoon. Our area has been put under a Flash Flood Watch with close to 2" or more of rain. Models show N IL to be in the perfect spot for the defo band to pivot through the area. Let it happen in the Winter! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 One key flaw off the GEFS I'm seeing this season is its obvious progressiveness. Check out the current 7 day precip anamoly period and the trends over the last 4 runs. Then look at the Day 4-10 period....pretty bad bias I'd say... Yep. This is definitely a noteworthy thing to remember. It's been raining here for the better part of the last 48 hours now. This stuff in last weeks models was supposed to be out of here and nowhere near as moist or deep, yet here I am in the rain still. It has understated blocking for every month except periods in September and very early october for the past 6 months. I'd say that has a ton to do with it as well. If I get 48 hours of precip in 44-63 days in this pattern I'll either be snowed or iced in. I'm pretty sure. What a great run out for October, though, no matter who scores in the next few days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 GFS past 4 runs = lower the boom (factor) 20191026 gfs_mslp_pcpn trend for 0z Sunday.gifI saw that too. Maybe it's from too much suppression over the top, but I'm not too sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Getting mid and high clouds pushing in from the SE from that big system. Kinda cool. Good luck to you guys over there with the wind and rain! Bet the trees are gonna be bare after this weekend! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Getting mid and high clouds pushing in from the SE from that big system. Kinda cool. Good luck to you guys over there with the wind and rain! Bet the trees are gonna be bare after this weekend! Thx James - you rock #imaginethisinwinter 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Winds are beginning to pick up out of the East, leaves are falling off the trees as the gusts come through....rain is knocking on my doorstep...it's going to be a raw, windy and wet afternoon. Our area has been put under a Flash Flood Watch with close to 2" or more of rain. Models show N IL to be in the perfect spot for the defo band to pivot through the area. Let it happen in the Winter! No kiddin! Could not help but notice what a target yby has on it's back. You SURE you've not been working on tuning your storm magnet? hehehe 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 @ Tom You mentioned potential historic pattern? Bingo! .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019Main forecast concern continues to center on potent low pressure(and remnants of short-lived TS Olga) lifting out of the Gulf Coast.Primary NWP trend over the last 24 hours has been toward a strongerand further west solution...favoring slightly less rain but morewind. Still a very impressive slug of moisture arriving by theafternoon...driven by a 60+ kt LLJ and deep layer of SSW floworiginating in the Gulf of Mexico. PW values climb well above 1.5inches which is solid record territory for this time of year basedon regional upper air sounding climo. Isentropic analysis shows avery deep layer of strong cross-isobar flow with mixing ratios above8 g/kg. Very strong midlevel low/vort max also becomes negativelytilted as it swings through NW IN with excellent lift and diffluencealoft. Entire CWA still looking at a solid 1" rain event with theinitial warm/moist air advection surge today but stronger/westwardlean favors more pronounced midlevel dry slot developing overheadtonight with better trowal and deformation favoring more precip onNW flank of surface low in Chicago`s area. This (along with warmmidlevel temps/no convective instability) will likely limitpotential for rainfall amounts to approach 2 inches as well as anyconcern for flooding. Afternoon rain will still fall relatively fastthough given factors above and efficient, warm-cloud processes. Thiscould still lead to some minor issues in typical low spots.Given stronger/westward solution...wind may end up being the primaryconcern but not until late tonight. Still not expecting strong windsduring the day today. Pressure gradient will support sustained windsaround 20 mph with perhaps a few gusts around 30 mph. It is alwaystough to get strong wind gusts in WAA regime though with generallyascending flow and a strong inversion based at 1-1.5 kft. It will bebreezy (and generally miserable) but nothing damaging. That maychange late tonight with arrival of dry slot and push of isentropicdescent/CAA/greater mixing. These are the scenarios that promotemore efficient downward momentum transport. Could potentially see afew isolated gusts approach advisory criteria of 45 mph in the 06-12Z period tonight but isentropic fields don`t indicate a sharpincrease in winds right along the gradient that is typically seen inhigh-wind events. Poor diurnal timing and relatively minor CAA alsoshould be considered and therefore not confident enough to issue anyheadlines at this point. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 @ Niko In case you hadn't heard of this. Today's tropical remnant will be child's play by comparison.. The September 25, 1941 Wind Storm – This was actually the remnants of a Hurricane that had made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast on the 23rd. The storm raced into the Great Lakes region and merged with a cold front, leading to an intense wind storm. Wind gusts up to 75 MPH hammered southeast Michigan for several hours and led to extensive damages. This is the only record of the remnants of a hurricane moving into Michigan and actually producing hurricane force winds. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Wow. Center of Circulation moving up thru N MS brought Tupelo a 71 mph gust a bit ago. Impressive 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 @ Tom You mentioned potential historic pattern? Bingo! .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Main forecast concern continues to center on potent low pressure(and remnants of short-lived TS Olga) lifting out of the Gulf Coast.Primary NWP trend over the last 24 hours has been toward a strongerand further west solution...favoring slightly less rain but morewind. Still a very impressive slug of moisture arriving by theafternoon...driven by a 60+ kt LLJ and deep layer of SSW floworiginating in the Gulf of Mexico. PW values climb well above 1.5inches which is solid record territory for this time of year basedon regional upper air sounding climo. Isentropic analysis shows avery deep layer of strong cross-isobar flow with mixing ratios above8 g/kg. Very strong midlevel low/vort max also becomes negativelytilted as it swings through NW IN with excellent lift and diffluencealoft. Entire CWA still looking at a solid 1" rain event with theinitial warm/moist air advection surge today but stronger/westwardlean favors more pronounced midlevel dry slot developing overheadtonight with better trowal and deformation favoring more precip onNW flank of surface low in Chicago`s area. This (along with warmmidlevel temps/no convective instability) will likely limitpotential for rainfall amounts to approach 2 inches as well as anyconcern for flooding. Afternoon rain will still fall relatively fastthough given factors above and efficient, warm-cloud processes. Thiscould still lead to some minor issues in typical low spots. Given stronger/westward solution...wind may end up being the primaryconcern but not until late tonight. Still not expecting strong windsduring the day today. Pressure gradient will support sustained windsaround 20 mph with perhaps a few gusts around 30 mph. It is alwaystough to get strong wind gusts in WAA regime though with generallyascending flow and a strong inversion based at 1-1.5 kft. It will bebreezy (and generally miserable) but nothing damaging. That maychange late tonight with arrival of dry slot and push of isentropicdescent/CAA/greater mixing. These are the scenarios that promotemore efficient downward momentum transport. Could potentially see afew isolated gusts approach advisory criteria of 45 mph in the 06-12Z period tonight but isentropic fields don`t indicate a sharpincrease in winds right along the gradient that is typically seen inhigh-wind events. Poor diurnal timing and relatively minor CAA alsoshould be considered and therefore not confident enough to issue anyheadlines at this point. Let's continue this for the next, say....5 months??? Edit: Boy, does this radar sure look pretty...Trowal baby... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Great day to do last minute yardwork! Mostly cloudy and low 50s. The smell of bonfires and burning leaves around the neighborhood. Gonna be doing that in a while here! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Attm, 48F w rain. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 LOT Met posted in AmWx's thd We were very open to issuing a wind advisory for southern CWA but ILX, IND and IWX still preferred to hold off. Given the run to run consistency of the HRRR for a corridor of 40-50+kt gusts tonight, I was surprised the neighbors didn't want to issue an advisory. Could very well have high wind warning type impacts if the HRRR comes to fruition. 18z RAP has a large area of 50+ kt winds at 925 mb spreading across central IL and IN. Forecast soundings suggest that there will be sufficient mixing to tap into the high winds aloft, with cold advection and very strong pressure rises immediately following the surface low. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 @ Niko In case you hadn't heard of this. Today's tropical remnant will be child's play by comparison.. The September 25, 1941 Wind Storm – This was actually the remnants of a Hurricane that had made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast on the 23rd. The storm raced into the Great Lakes region and merged with a cold front, leading to an intense wind storm. Wind gusts up to 75 MPH hammered southeast Michigan for several hours and led to extensive damages. This is the only record of the remnants of a hurricane moving into Michigan and actually producing hurricane force winds.Wow..woulda liked to experience that type of windstorm 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 An incredible amt of moisture streaming northward from Olga's remnants. Radar is socked in. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 @ Niko In case you hadn't heard of this. Today's tropical remnant will be child's play by comparison.. The September 25, 1941 Wind Storm – This was actually the remnants of a Hurricane that had made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast on the 23rd. The storm raced into the Great Lakes region and merged with a cold front, leading to an intense wind storm. Wind gusts up to 75 MPH hammered southeast Michigan for several hours and led to extensive damages. This is the only record of the remnants of a hurricane moving into Michigan and actually producing hurricane force winds. As a follow-up I found this link (which I had run across before) with a great NWS write-up on that unique event: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtxcane Noteworthy to our topic of historical context is that of autumn storms in Detroit. All-time low pressures for September happened in 1919 and 1966, both of which went on to be historic/legendary winters for the region. Thus confirming that early strong storms in autumn can often be a good signal that they will repeat. I've already cited Nov of '66, '98, and 2013 as examples, but tbh just learned of Sept '66 and 1919 as further evidence to support the idea. #strongstormrepeats 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 An incredible amt of moisture streaming northward from Olga's remnants. Radar is socked in. Can confirm. Getting my soaking strato-form rainer I wished for about a month ago. Per the airport unit, 0.41" in the first 4 hrs since onset. Easily 1"/hr snowfall rate (better if cold ratios) if it were a snowstorm. Rarely get the +RN from this unit unless it's during a brief T-storm event 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 @TOL_Weather Heads-up buddy! Special Weather StatementSpecial Weather StatementNational Weather Service Cleveland OH559 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036>038-047-270600-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,Fremont, Sandusky, Lorain, Cleveland, Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk,Medina, Akron, Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland,Wooster, Marion, Mount Gilead, Millersburg, and Mount Vernon559 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019...Strong Wind Gusts Expected At Times Late Tonight...Strong wind gusts up to and around 40 mph are expected latetonight. Secure loose objects like lawn furniture, trash cans, andoutdoor decor that could be lofted within these winds. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Several of the CAMs like this NAM 12k and the RGEM get mby into the real meat of this system later on this evening/early night Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 SPC Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 OMG, gimme this in snow pls! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Olga packed a punch down south in LA https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_6f7ed9ac-f7e9-11e9-8d48-e3b4241a839c.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Cold Front just came through. Dropped 10 degrees in a few minutes. It is all downhill from here in the next 5-6 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 As a follow-up I found this link (which I had run across before) with a great NWS write-up on that unique event: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtxcane Noteworthy to our topic of historical context is that of autumn storms in Detroit. All-time low pressures for September happened in 1919 and 1966, both of which went on to be historic/legendary winters for the region. Thus confirming that early strong storms in autumn can often be a good signal that they will repeat. I've already cited Nov of '66, '98, and 2013 as examples, but tbh just learned of Sept '66 and 1919 as further evidence to support the idea. #strongstormrepeats Awesome! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Can confirm. Getting my soaking strato-form rainer I wished for about a month ago. Per the airport unit, 0.41" in the first 4 hrs since onset. Easily 1"/hr snowfall rate (better if cold ratios) if it were a snowstorm. Rarely get the +RN from this unit unless it's during a brief T-storm event 20191026 6pm KRMY Obs.JPGYep, its raw here as well, w moderate rain and temps holding in the upper 40s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Center of circulation is now getting closer to southern MI. That will pull in dry air and shut off precip. Hate to get this in Winter. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Stepped out to take care of a few errands and it’s about as nasty as it gets in October. Heavy Rain blowing sideways, leaves flying everywhere, pounding on the roadways from clogged drainages and temp holding steady (48F). Nice Autumn evening chillaxin’ and enjoying some homemade chili. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Stepped out to take care of a few errands and it’s about as nasty as it gets in October. Heavy Rain blowing sideways, leaves flying everywhere, pounding on the roadways from clogged drainages and temp holding steady (48F). Nice Autumn evening chillaxin’ and enjoying some homemade chili.Could not agree more. I was in the mood for some homemade Mexican food. It really hit the spot w this type of weather outside and at the same time had a Halloween movie playing. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Olga packed a punch down south in LA https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_6f7ed9ac-f7e9-11e9-8d48-e3b4241a839c.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share More stuff of legends. I made the comment earlier that this storm was like a warm version of 12-15-87, the gravity wave storm that rocked ORD taking a very similar path. Well, Olga fooled even the experts and in this age no less. NHC/NWS caught off guard admitting on twitter they weren't expecting winds near what happened in S LA. A forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicted Olga's winds would reach 50 mph. Instead, gusts reached up to 73 mph in St. Tammany Parish. Lake Pontchartrain Causeway General Manager Carlton Dufrechou reported wind of more than 70 mph at the drawbridge around 4:30 a.m., and he said several gusts were as high as 100 mph. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Stepped out to take care of a few errands and it’s about as nasty as it gets in October. Heavy Rain blowing sideways, leaves flying everywhere, pounding on the roadways from clogged drainages and temp holding steady (48F). Nice Autumn evening chillaxin’ and enjoying some homemade chili. Could not agree more. I was in the mood for some homemade Mexican food. It really hit the spot w this type of weather outside and at the same time had a Halloween movie playing. Me too, only it was for pizza (daughter) and food for our cats, lol. Took a half-broken umbrella and with mainstreet E-W and tunnel effect for the winds about ripped the thing out of my hands! Cannot imagine the pummelling if this were all snow. Had about 1.4" qpf six hrs time. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Cannot get over how frequently I've had low baro readings during this dawning LRC. I can't remember such stretch in my (adult) lifetime tbh. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 18z GFS for the Howler-weenie System. Why does this path feel so familiar?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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