October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[GDR]

28 and everything white from frost this morning

[Niko]

 

Lakeshore Flood Warning

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

249 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019
 

MIZ070-262030-

/O.NEW.KDTX.LS.W.0016.191026T1800Z-191027T1200Z/

Macomb-

249 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019
 

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
 

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

Lakeshore Flood Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM this

afternoon to 8 AM EDT Sunday.
 

* Lake Shore Flooding...Southeast winds will develop this afternoon

  and increase during the course of the evening. Wind gusts of 20 to

  30 MPH are possible across Lake St Clair. The persistence of these

  winds and the high lake levels are expected to cause the water to

  rise to 61 inches above low water datum or higher. Based on the

  wind direction, the higher water levels are expected along the

  shoreline in Saint Clair Shores and Harrison Township. The wind

  direction will switch to the southwest Sunday morning, pushing the

  higher water levels to the other side of the lake.
 

* Impacts...The combination of rising water levels and wave action

  will cause flooding along the shoreline of the lake. Moderate to

  perhaps briefly heavy rain this evening may hinder flood

  mitigation efforts.

 

[jaster220]

  HRRR has some 10m gusts at +/- 65 mph in C IL

 

[OKwx2k4]

HRRR has some 10m gusts at +/- 65 mph in C IL

 

Holy mackerel! That ULL is legit.

 

20191026 10z hrrr 10m Gusts at 4z Sunday.jpg

[jaster220]

Heavy frost/freeze even in mby as KRMY bottomed out at 31F.  At work office this morning and the harvested bean fields looked like snow covering them. I had to head up near Frankenmuth yesterday and will say that the peaking colors were very very vibrant the entire way. Tbh, I don't recall them being this good downstate. Anyhow, late but very nice colors while they last. 

[Tom]

One key flaw off the GEFS I'm seeing this season is its obvious progressiveness.  Check out the current 7 day precip anamoly period and the trends over the last 4 runs.

 

 

 

 

Then look at the Day 4-10 period....pretty bad bias I'd say...

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

GFS past 4 runs = lower the boom (factor)

 

[Andie]

The front has left us with 48* at 11 am.

A High of 68 expected. We'll see. Low tonight 47*.

 

Olga out in the GOM Brings some severe weather and flooding to the Deep South.

There was a good deal of flooding in Austin, Texas with these storms as well.

[Tom]

Winds are beginning to pick up out of the East, leaves are falling off the trees as the gusts come through....rain is knocking on my doorstep...it's going to be a raw, windy and wet afternoon.  Our area has been put under a Flash Flood Watch with close to 2" or more of rain.  Models show N IL to be in the perfect spot for the defo band to pivot through the area.  Let it happen in the Winter!

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

One key flaw off the GEFS I'm seeing this season is its obvious progressiveness. Check out the current 7 day precip anamoly period and the trends over the last 4 runs.

 

 

 

 

Then look at the Day 4-10 period....pretty bad bias I'd say...

 

 

Yep. This is definitely a noteworthy thing to remember. It's been raining here for the better part of the last 48 hours now. This stuff in last weeks models was supposed to be out of here and nowhere near as moist or deep, yet here I am in the rain still.

 

It has understated blocking for every month except periods in September and very early october for the past 6 months. I'd say that has a ton to do with it as well.

 

If I get 48 hours of precip in 44-63 days in this pattern I'll either be snowed or iced in. I'm pretty sure.

 

What a great run out for October, though, no matter who scores in the next few days.

[OKwx2k4]

GFS past 4 runs = lower the boom (factor)

 

20191026 gfs_mslp_pcpn trend for 0z Sunday.gif

I saw that too. Maybe it's from too much suppression over the top, but I'm not too sure.

[james1976]

Getting mid and high clouds pushing in from the SE from that big system. Kinda cool. Good luck to you guys over there with the wind and rain! Bet the trees are gonna be bare after this weekend!

[jaster220]

Getting mid and high clouds pushing in from the SE from that big system. Kinda cool. Good luck to you guys over there with the wind and rain! Bet the trees are gonna be bare after this weekend!

 

Thx James - you rock

 

#imaginethisinwinter 

 

[jaster220]

Winds are beginning to pick up out of the East, leaves are falling off the trees as the gusts come through....rain is knocking on my doorstep...it's going to be a raw, windy and wet afternoon.  Our area has been put under a Flash Flood Watch with close to 2" or more of rain.  Models show N IL to be in the perfect spot for the defo band to pivot through the area.  Let it happen in the Winter!

 

 

 

No kiddin! Could not help but notice what a target yby has on it's back. You SURE you've not been working on tuning your storm magnet? hehehe 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

You mentioned potential historic pattern? Bingo!

 

 

 

 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

Main forecast concern continues to center on potent low pressure
(and remnants of short-lived TS Olga) lifting out of the Gulf Coast.
Primary NWP trend over the last 24 hours has been toward a stronger
and further west solution...favoring slightly less rain but more
wind. Still a very impressive slug of moisture arriving by the
afternoon...driven by a 60+ kt LLJ and deep layer of SSW flow
originating in the Gulf of Mexico. PW values climb well above 1.5
inches which is solid record territory for this time of year based
on regional upper air sounding climo. Isentropic analysis shows a
very deep layer of strong cross-isobar flow with mixing ratios above
8 g/kg. Very strong midlevel low/vort max also becomes negatively
tilted as it swings through NW IN with excellent lift and diffluence
aloft. Entire CWA still looking at a solid 1" rain event with the
initial warm/moist air advection surge today but stronger/westward
lean favors more pronounced midlevel dry slot developing overhead
tonight with better trowal and deformation favoring more precip on
NW flank of surface low in Chicago`s area. This (along with warm
midlevel temps/no convective instability) will likely limit
potential for rainfall amounts to approach 2 inches as well as any
concern for flooding. Afternoon rain will still fall relatively fast
though given factors above and efficient, warm-cloud processes. This
could still lead to some minor issues in typical low spots.

Given stronger/westward solution...wind may end up being the primary
concern but not until late tonight. Still not expecting strong winds
during the day today. Pressure gradient will support sustained winds
around 20 mph with perhaps a few gusts around 30 mph. It is always
tough to get strong wind gusts in WAA regime though with generally
ascending flow and a strong inversion based at 1-1.5 kft. It will be
breezy (and generally miserable) but nothing damaging. That may
change late tonight with arrival of dry slot and push of isentropic
descent/CAA/greater mixing. These are the scenarios that promote
more efficient downward momentum transport. Could potentially see a
few isolated gusts approach advisory criteria of 45 mph in the 06-
12Z period tonight but isentropic fields don`t indicate a sharp
increase in winds right along the gradient that is typically seen in
high-wind events. Poor diurnal timing and relatively minor CAA also
should be considered and therefore not confident enough to issue any
headlines at this point.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

In case you hadn't heard of this. Today's tropical remnant will be child's play by comparison..

 

The September 25, 1941 Wind Storm – This was actually the remnants of a Hurricane that had made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast on the 23rd. The storm raced into the Great Lakes region and merged with a cold front, leading to an intense wind storm. Wind gusts up to 75 MPH hammered southeast Michigan for several hours and led to extensive damages. This is the only record of the remnants of a hurricane moving into Michigan and actually producing hurricane force winds.

[jaster220]

Wow. Center of Circulation moving up thru N MS brought Tupelo a 71 mph gust a bit ago. Impressive

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

You mentioned potential historic pattern? Bingo!

 

 

 

 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

 

Main forecast concern continues to center on potent low pressure

(and remnants of short-lived TS Olga) lifting out of the Gulf Coast.

Primary NWP trend over the last 24 hours has been toward a stronger

and further west solution...favoring slightly less rain but more

wind. Still a very impressive slug of moisture arriving by the

afternoon...driven by a 60+ kt LLJ and deep layer of SSW flow

originating in the Gulf of Mexico. PW values climb well above 1.5

inches which is solid record territory for this time of year based

on regional upper air sounding climo. Isentropic analysis shows a

very deep layer of strong cross-isobar flow with mixing ratios above

8 g/kg. Very strong midlevel low/vort max also becomes negatively

tilted as it swings through NW IN with excellent lift and diffluence

aloft. Entire CWA still looking at a solid 1" rain event with the

initial warm/moist air advection surge today but stronger/westward

lean favors more pronounced midlevel dry slot developing overhead

tonight with better trowal and deformation favoring more precip on

NW flank of surface low in Chicago`s area. This (along with warm

midlevel temps/no convective instability) will likely limit

potential for rainfall amounts to approach 2 inches as well as any

concern for flooding. Afternoon rain will still fall relatively fast

though given factors above and efficient, warm-cloud processes. This

could still lead to some minor issues in typical low spots.

 

Given stronger/westward solution...wind may end up being the primary

concern but not until late tonight. Still not expecting strong winds

during the day today. Pressure gradient will support sustained winds

around 20 mph with perhaps a few gusts around 30 mph. It is always

tough to get strong wind gusts in WAA regime though with generally

ascending flow and a strong inversion based at 1-1.5 kft. It will be

breezy (and generally miserable) but nothing damaging. That may

change late tonight with arrival of dry slot and push of isentropic

descent/CAA/greater mixing. These are the scenarios that promote

more efficient downward momentum transport. Could potentially see a

few isolated gusts approach advisory criteria of 45 mph in the 06-

12Z period tonight but isentropic fields don`t indicate a sharp

increase in winds right along the gradient that is typically seen in

high-wind events. Poor diurnal timing and relatively minor CAA also

should be considered and therefore not confident enough to issue any

headlines at this point.

 

Let's continue this for the next, say....5 months???

 

Edit: Boy, does this radar sure look pretty...Trowal baby...

 

[james1976]

Great day to do last minute yardwork! Mostly cloudy and low 50s. The smell of bonfires and burning leaves around the neighborhood. Gonna be doing that in a while here!

[Niko]

Attm, 48F w rain.

[jaster220]

LOT Met posted in AmWx's thd

 

We were very open to issuing a wind advisory for southern CWA but ILX, IND and IWX still preferred to hold off. Given the run to run consistency of the HRRR for a corridor of 40-50+kt gusts tonight, I was surprised the neighbors didn't want to issue an advisory. Could very well have high wind warning type impacts if the HRRR comes to fruition. 18z RAP has a large area of 50+ kt winds at 925 mb spreading across central IL and IN. Forecast soundings suggest that there will be sufficient mixing to tap into the high winds aloft, with cold advection and very strong pressure rises immediately following the surface low.

 

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

In case you hadn't heard of this. Today's tropical remnant will be child's play by comparison..

 

The September 25, 1941 Wind Storm – This was actually the remnants of a Hurricane that had made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast on the 23rd. The storm raced into the Great Lakes region and merged with a cold front, leading to an intense wind storm. Wind gusts up to 75 MPH hammered southeast Michigan for several hours and led to extensive damages. This is the only record of the remnants of a hurricane moving into Michigan and actually producing hurricane force winds.

Wow..woulda liked to experience that type of windstorm

[Niko]

An incredible amt of moisture streaming northward from Olga's remnants. Radar is socked in.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

In case you hadn't heard of this. Today's tropical remnant will be child's play by comparison..

 

The September 25, 1941 Wind Storm – This was actually the remnants of a Hurricane that had made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast on the 23rd. The storm raced into the Great Lakes region and merged with a cold front, leading to an intense wind storm. Wind gusts up to 75 MPH hammered southeast Michigan for several hours and led to extensive damages. This is the only record of the remnants of a hurricane moving into Michigan and actually producing hurricane force winds.

 

As a follow-up I found this link (which I had run across before) with a great NWS write-up on that unique event: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtxcane

 

Noteworthy to our topic of historical context is that of autumn storms in Detroit. All-time low pressures for September happened in 1919 and 1966, both of which went on to be historic/legendary winters for the region. Thus confirming that early strong storms in autumn can often be a good signal that they will repeat. I've already cited Nov of '66, '98, and 2013 as examples, but tbh just learned of Sept '66 and 1919 as further evidence to support the idea. #strongstormrepeats 

[jaster220]

An incredible amt of moisture streaming northward from Olga's remnants. Radar is socked in.

 

Can confirm. Getting my soaking strato-form rainer I wished for about a month ago. Per the airport unit, 0.41" in the first 4 hrs since onset. Easily 1"/hr snowfall rate (better if cold ratios) if it were a snowstorm. 

 

Rarely get the +RN from this unit unless it's during a brief T-storm event

 

[jaster220]

@TOL_Weather

 

Heads-up buddy!

 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
559 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036>038-047-270600-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Summit-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,
Fremont, Sandusky, Lorain, Cleveland, Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk,
Medina, Akron, Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland,
Wooster, Marion, Mount Gilead, Millersburg, and Mount Vernon
559 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

...Strong Wind Gusts Expected At Times Late Tonight...

Strong wind gusts up to and around 40 mph are expected late
tonight. Secure loose objects like lawn furniture, trash cans, and
outdoor decor that could be lofted within these winds.

[jaster220]

Several of the CAMs like this NAM 12k and the RGEM get mby into the real meat of this system later on this evening/early night

 

[jaster220]

SPC 

 

[jaster220]

OMG, gimme this in snow pls!

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Olga packed a punch down south in LA

 

https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_6f7ed9ac-f7e9-11e9-8d48-e3b4241a839c.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

[CentralNebWeather]

Cold Front just came through. Dropped 10 degrees in a few minutes. It is all downhill from here in the next 5-6 days.

[Niko]

As a follow-up I found this link (which I had run across before) with a great NWS write-up on that unique event: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtxcane

 

Noteworthy to our topic of historical context is that of autumn storms in Detroit. All-time low pressures for September happened in 1919 and 1966, both of which went on to be historic/legendary winters for the region. Thus confirming that early strong storms in autumn can often be a good signal that they will repeat. I've already cited Nov of '66, '98, and 2013 as examples, but tbh just learned of Sept '66 and 1919 as further evidence to support the idea. #strongstormrepeats 

Awesome!

[Niko]

Can confirm. Getting my soaking strato-form rainer I wished for about a month ago. Per the airport unit, 0.41" in the first 4 hrs since onset. Easily 1"/hr snowfall rate (better if cold ratios) if it were a snowstorm. 

 

Rarely get the +RN from this unit unless it's during a brief T-storm event

 

20191026 6pm KRMY Obs.JPG

Yep, its raw here as well, w moderate rain and temps holding in the upper 40s.

[Niko]

Center of circulation is now getting closer to southern MI. That will pull in dry air and shut off precip. Hate to get this in Winter.

[Tom]

Stepped out to take care of a few errands and it’s about as nasty as it gets in October. Heavy Rain blowing sideways, leaves flying everywhere, pounding on the roadways from clogged drainages and temp holding steady (48F). Nice Autumn evening chillaxin’ and enjoying some homemade chili.

[Niko]

Stepped out to take care of a few errands and it’s about as nasty as it gets in October. Heavy Rain blowing sideways, leaves flying everywhere, pounding on the roadways from clogged drainages and temp holding steady (48F). Nice Autumn evening chillaxin’ and enjoying some homemade chili.

Could not agree more. I was in the mood for some homemade Mexican food. It really hit the spot w this type of weather outside and at the same time had a Halloween movie playing.

[jaster220]

Olga packed a punch down south in LA

 

https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_6f7ed9ac-f7e9-11e9-8d48-e3b4241a839c.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

 

More stuff of legends. I made the comment earlier that this storm was like a warm version of 12-15-87, the gravity wave storm that rocked ORD taking a very similar path. Well, Olga fooled even the experts and in this age no less. NHC/NWS caught off guard admitting on twitter they weren't expecting winds near what happened in S LA.

 

A forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicted Olga's winds would reach 50 mph. Instead, gusts reached up to 73 mph in St. Tammany Parish.

 

Lake Pontchartrain Causeway General Manager Carlton Dufrechou reported wind of more than 70 mph at the drawbridge around 4:30 a.m., and he said several gusts were as high as 100 mph. 

[jaster220]

Stepped out to take care of a few errands and it’s about as nasty as it gets in October. Heavy Rain blowing sideways, leaves flying everywhere, pounding on the roadways from clogged drainages and temp holding steady (48F). Nice Autumn evening chillaxin’ and enjoying some homemade chili.

 

Could not agree more. I was in the mood for some homemade Mexican food. It really hit the spot w this type of weather outside and at the same time had a Halloween movie playing.

 

 Me too, only it was for pizza (daughter) and food for our cats, lol. Took a half-broken umbrella and with mainstreet E-W and tunnel effect for the winds about ripped the thing out of my hands! Cannot imagine the pummelling if this were all snow. Had about 1.4" qpf six hrs time.

[jaster220]

Cannot get over how frequently I've had low baro readings during this dawning LRC. I can't remember such stretch in my (adult) lifetime tbh.

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

18z GFS for the Howler-weenie System. Why does this path feel so familiar??