October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Fired up a Storm Thread for the Halloween system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2114-1030-1031-potential-halloween-winter-storm/

[Clinton]

The GFS is showing a nice lead wave Monday night but can't quite generate the secondary low but it is getting closer.

[Tom]

The GFS is showing a nice lead wave Monday night but can't quite generate the secondary low but it is getting closer.

 

Definitely showing it's bias of blasting the energy off to the east much faster...I think we'll start seeing shift in today's 12z run 

[Clinton]

Definitely showing it's bias of blasting the energy off to the east much faster...I think we'll start seeing shift in today's 12z run 

I was hoping the upgrade last year would help but guess not.  I think your right about todays runs it came close last night.

[Tom]

Everything about this storm system forming in the deep south/GOM is intriguing...Ample moisture feed, phasing of the ULL and GOM energy, strengthening storm system as it tracks due NNE up towards the GL's along with a nice trowel-like feature and associated defo band.  Just an atmospheric beauty.

 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

First frost of the season here in the urban heat island of MSP. Temp 29F with a chill of 24.

[Andie]

We've lost power for the 2nd time. A drop of rain and the system crashes.

There isn't even a storm nearby. 3.6 million without power at rush hour.

 

Good times!

[james1976]

Coldest morning yet. Low 20s and heavy frost.

[Hawkeye]

Same here... first time in the upper 20s with heavy frost.

[East Dubzz]

My parents' weather gauge bottomed out at 26.1* this morning.

[jaster220]

Everything about this storm system forming in the deep south/GOM is intriguing...Ample moisture feed, phasing of the ULL and GOM energy, strengthening storm system as it tracks due NNE up towards the GL's along with a nice trowel-like feature and associated defo band.  Just an atmospheric beauty.

 

Takes a Dec 15, 1987 track which is quite a rarity. Should be eye candy if we see it again in winter. 

[Niko]

Overcast skies w temps at 43F. Lows tanite dipping in the 20s b4 the big rainstorm arrives later on Saturday.

[jaster220]

@ OKwx

 

Here you go bud, just add seasonably cold air and voila! 

 

[Niko]

My high temps are not budging from the 40s for highs until further notice. BN stretch of temps is in stored.

[Niko]

Sparky- let me know what ya thought about the vid

[jaster220]

Definitely showing it's bias of blasting the energy off to the east much faster...I think we'll start seeing shift in today's 12z run 

 

GRR seeing same and agrees for once.

 

For the Mon-Tue system:

 

A short wave will round the base of the western low to help

bring a surface wave toward the area. At the same time, the long

wave low will shift east, and support additional development of the

low with better upper divergence taking shape over the region. We

believe this system will bring mainly rain as the upper low is

likely to remain over the Rockies and Plains at that time. We

believe the more progressive GFS solution pushing the whole upper

low through, bringing more cold air in, is one of the typical issues

it has in this scenario.

[Niko]

Now, this is what you wanna read during the Winter months:

 

Per NOAA:

 

Although the upper level energy/low over Oklahoma will briefly lose
the linkage with the northern stream, the digging upper level trough
diving into the Rockies on Saturday will force the system off to the
northeast, with the 00z Euro remaining consistent for a better part
of a week tracking the low pressure system through Lower Michigan.
The wide open Gulf of Mexico moisture at the present time over the
Western Gulf coast states will be surging in after 18z Saturday as
very strong low level jet (60+ knots) translates through the eastern
Great Lakes during the evening hours, supporting widespread rain
developing 18-00z Sunday with trowal maintaining rain through
Saturday evening/night. 850 MB dew pts progged to reach 12 C with PW
Values around 1.5 inches, both near record values for late October,
supporting heavy rainfall even with thunderstorms likely hard to
come by with showalter index mostly positive and minimal cape values
(MU capes ~100 J/kg).

[westMJim]

With cloudy skies the current temperature here is 42. The H/L yesterday was 52/41. For today the average H/L is 57/39. The record high is 78 in 2012 and the record low is 20 in 1960. As others have reported there are still a lot of leaves on the trees yet and according to this color report we still have not reached peak.

https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/current-season-midwest-us/129-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-current-season/908-mw-foliage-report-14-2019

and much of the area is several days behind last year.

https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/midwest-us-2018-reports/175-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2018/849-mw-foliage-report-15-2018

 

This year will be a good year for the old weather lore saying 

 

When leaves fall early,

Fall and Winter will be mild;

When leaves fall late,

Winter will be severe.

 

Here is some more on winter lore

 

https://www.stormfax.com/wxfolk.htm

[Niko]

Look at all that moisture down in the GOM about to rush into SEMI.........Man, had it been later in the season....Look-out!

 

[Niko]

Its a cloudy chilly day out there w temps staying put into the mid 40s (44F). A lot of rain on the way!

[Tom]

Here's a short vid that captured the sounds of Thundersnow down in TX yesterday...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1187445162911391745

[jaster220]

Look at all that moisture down in the GOM about to rush into SEMI.........Man, had it been later in the season....Look-out!

 

 

Ike back in Sept 2008 was a good omen. Thinking the same will be true of this one. Strange to be in a Tropical "Cone" 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I have lows next week forecasted at 19, 18, and 15. Possibly lower if we get a snow cover. Frigid for late October.

[OKwx2k4]

Ike back in Sept 2008 was a good omen. Thinking the same will be true of this one. Strange to be in a Tropical "Cone"

 

143243_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Lol. Didn't realize that was a tropical depression. It was good for you back in 08. Terrible for me. I got an ice storm of over 2" ice accretion in January 2009. Same with 2000-01, another analogous year to this one.

 

This stuff isn't really a guarantee for me. Being on the wrong side in later season with a slow rainer like this one is pure disaster or pure bliss. No in between.

[Andie]

Here's a short vid that captured the sounds of Thundersnow down in TX yesterday...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1187445162911391745

 

Always cool to see.  We've had thundersnow and thunderice in North Texas.  It is so weird.

[Andie]

Currently 46*  Rain coming in this evening again. 

No real change in temps expected.

High tomorrow 64*...maybe.

 

Had another power outage at 7 this morning.  Lot's of angry folks trying to make coffee or dry hair! 

Someone hit a power pole.  I understand he split his car in half - and didn't make it.

No power till noon.  Really bad wreck.

[Niko]

Attm, cloudy and chilly w temps at 36F. At least 2" of rainfall coming for the weekend. Wow.

[Madtown]

39 here

[Niko]

Fired up a Storm Thread for the Halloween system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2114-1030-1031-potential-halloween-winter-storm/

Many more to come in this upcoming Winter season....

[Niko]

Temps are dropping like a rock in mby. Currently at 33F under partly cloudy skies.

[jaster220]

Tom's talkin about windy storm next week, but look out! here comes tropical storm Olga remnants barreling due north outta the Gulf. Models are trending stronger with several advertising sub-990mb outcomes near south end of Lake Mich. Several regional offices hitting the wind potential in their pm AFDs as well. Just amazing atmospheric set-up right now. 

 

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

Tidbit for ya bud.

 

By the way, I just checked the forecast PW value during the rainstorm, for Detroit. That is a value 1.45."  This would be at about the general maximum for this time of year for the DTX sounding location (see SPC sounding climatology.) The average for this time of year would be 0.57."

[jaster220]

  0z GFS comes out punching..down to 988mb in IL (compact storm gotta come with some dynamics I'd imagine)

 

 

EDIT - That's a full 12mb lower than the 18z run by the way. #funtimes for wx following!

[Niko]

  0z GFS comes out punching..down to 988mb in IL (compact storm gotta come with some dynamics I'd imagine)

 

20191026 0z GFS Olga Storm.JPG

 

EDIT - That's a full 12mb lower than the 18z run by the way. #funtimes for wx following!

Tremendous amt of moisture.

[Niko]

Tom's talkin about windy storm next week, but look out! here comes tropical storm Olga remnants barreling due north outta the Gulf. Models are trending stronger with several advertising sub-990mb outcomes near south end of Lake Mich. Several regional offices hitting the wind potential in their pm AFDs as well. Just amazing atmospheric set-up right now. 

 

20191025 18z RGEM h35.png

If ya look closely, you can easily see that CF behind this system getting ready to poised on southward and eventually into our neck of the woods.

[Niko]

Temps continue to tumble. Temp at 31F. Going into the 20s tanite. Its going to be a cold one.

[Niko]

Ike back in Sept 2008 was a good omen. Thinking the same will be true of this one. Strange to be in a Tropical "Cone" 

 

143243_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Indeed. Also, hard to believe that all of this moisture moving north was connected w TS Olga. Now a post tropical system being trailed onto a CF.

[Tom]

I’m on my way to the gym and I can confirm there is a lot of Frost this morning. Coldest temp of the season 34F. High level clouds are approaching from the south and it has that feeling of an approaching winter storm. Has that certain smell in the air. Make it a great Saturday friends!

[westMJim]

Good morning.  The overnight low here at my house was 29 before some clouds moved in. The official low at GRR looks to be 31. Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 49/41 and at this time the mean for this October at Grand Rapids is now at 52.1 and that is a departure of +/- 0° so GR is now right at average for the month. For today the average H/L is 56/39 the record high is 78 set in 1939 and the record low is 24 set in 1990.  With the potential for heavy rain fall tonight into tomorrow the best chance for a new record would be for today as the record is just 0.89” set in 2016. For tomorrow the record is 1.32” set in 1906.

[Niko]

A lot of heavy frost this morning as temps hit 28F last nite.