October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

That track suggests a trend toward IL/WI getting the heavy snow rather than eastern IA.

 

I guess not.  Illinois gets little if any snow as the mid level is way too warm.  I have to remember this is still October.

[Clinton]

How are winds?

Is this what your looking for bud?

[hlcater]

Congrats to those in parts of IA and WI peeps on here. Euro wants to destroy your area.

A week out. Climo says the dakotas/MN reel this one in.

[Tom]

Is this what your looking for bud?

Here...Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard....let’s see here, we started the month with a Blizzard...why not end the month with a Monster Blizzard???

[james1976]

A week out. Climo says the dakotas/MN reel this one in.

Idk. Lot of moving pieces and strong cold air. This track isn't impossible.

[Tom]

A week out. Climo says the dakotas/MN reel this one in.

I don’t think so with this one...this has already been an abnormal month. Blocking will be very strong during this set up.

[East Dubzz]

I guess not.  Illinois gets little if any snow as the mid level is way too warm.  I have to remember this is still October.

 

That's why I'm not actually getting my hopes up at all for this. I still expect this to pull north with time and end up as at least a Nebby/W Iowa, Minny special, but it's cool to have something there to look at right now.

 

I'm not dismissing the possibility. I'm just saying there is still a lot of time for this to change. 

[Hawkeye]

How are winds?

 

The Euro's delayed wrap-up (compared to the ICON) keeps the wind over Iowa reasonable.  However, it shows 80 mph gusts over the open Great Lakes.

[Stormhunter87]

Move a bit north I want the daughter trick or treating in a foot of snow lol

[gabel23]

Congrats to those in parts of IA and WI peeps on here. Euro wants to destroy your area.

I would take that and run with it for sure!! Not the big totals; tell you the truth I would rather save the big totals for later in the year. Would had to see damage done to trees with leaves on them. I'm still in shock though that the GFS still doesn't have anything for snow. As someone mentioned before; lots of things can happen between now and next week. 

[St Paul Storm]

Here’s the map of the exact same timeframe in 1991. The 12z Euro track is slightly east of this, but woah. Freaky close. Another Halloween Blizzard in the making?

[jaster220]

Sooo much to follow - on overload (while @ work no less)

 

Weekend system ingests a late-blooming tropical cyclone! The truest of GOMEX lows 

 

24/12z GEM

 

[jaster220]

The Euro's delayed wrap-up (compared to the ICON) keeps the wind over Iowa reasonable.  However, it shows 80 mph gusts over the open Great Lakes.

 

I'm hearing 12z GEM goes nuclear over SMI with 75 mph winds at 850 mb (likely to mix down due to bombing 24mb in 12 hrs) 

 

EDIT: Correction, it was the 12z Euro, not the GEM

[bud2380]

Timing wise on the Euro right now, the first wave looks to hit Iowa late Monday night into Tuesday the 29th (roughly 114 hours out for the start time on the 12z run), and then wave 2 moves in on Halloween morning (roughly 168 hours out from the start time).  So obviously a long ways to go here, but starting to get real interesting. 

[jaster220]

Timing wise on the Euro right now, the first wave looks to hit Iowa late Monday night into Tuesday the 29th (roughly 114 hours out for the start time on the 12z run), and then wave 2 moves in on Halloween morning (roughly 168 hours out from the start time).  So obviously a long ways to go here, but starting to get real interesting. 

 

Inside of h120 for storm initiation is traditionally thread trigger time (fwiw)

[jaster220]

I'm hearing 12z GEM goes nuclear over SMI with 75 mph winds at 850 mb (likely to mix down due to bombing 24mb in 12 hrs) 

 

EDIT: Correction, it was the 12z Euro, not the GEM

 

This guy..

 

[jaster220]

/\ Funny thing, last evening I had thoughts this could be the classic Straights of Michigan autumn bomb

[james1976]

I guess I shouldn't be surprised at a boring DMX discussion this far out

[jaster220]

Sooo much to follow - on overload (while @ work no less)

 

Weekend system ingests a late-blooming tropical cyclone! The truest of GOMEX lows 

 

24/12z GEM

 

20191024 12z GEM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh36-56.gif

 

Per a Met in the LOT office on the weekend system. Interesting that this shoots north right on the heals of a cold morning (31F here)

 

"Can easily see the tropical connection on the pwat plume on the 12z Euro. Intense 850 mb LLJ in the warm conveyor. Impressive rain event locally modeled by the 12z Euro. Would imagine with the magnitude of the WAA and near record high pwats that embedded thunderstorms could occur due to slantwise instability in the comma head."

[jaster220]

I guess I shouldn't be surprised at a boring DMX discussion this far out

 

CPC not biting on the snowiest solutions at this range either. (SPS is closest to scoring with today's map)

 

[jaster220]

/\ Heck, they even lost the winds around the GL's 

[St Paul Storm]

Some good info: MPX

 

a potent northern stream shortwave will dive down from

Manitoba and could phase with the leading trough to its

southeast. The previous ECMWF had shown this, resulting in heavy

snow Tuesday. The 12Z has shifted a bit toward the GFS, which has

been very progressive with the base of the southwestern trough and

essentially shears it out before it can become negatively tilted

with the Canadian shortwave. The GFS is notorious for being too

progressive, while the ECMWF can be too deep and slow with strong

troughs. The EPS is usually some of the best guidance in patterns

such as these. Therefore, we and WPC went with the 00Z EPS mean. The

12Z ensemble guidance is not available for the dayshift forecast.

[Iowawx]

I forgot to post that I got 0.18" of rain yesterday. That may not sound like much, but with that rain, my October rainfall total so far is 6.00".  We will likely add to that total next week as well. 

[Niko]

Sooo much to follow - on overload (while @ work no less)

 

Weekend system ingests a late-blooming tropical cyclone! The truest of GOMEX lows 

 

24/12z GEM

 

20191024 12z GEM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh36-56.gif

How sweet that looks.

[Niko]

I would take that and run with it for sure!! Not the big totals; tell you the truth I would rather save the big totals for later in the year. Would had to see damage done to trees with leaves on them. I'm still in shock though that the GFS still doesn't have anything for snow. As someone mentioned before; lots of things can happen between now and next week. 

Makes me wonder why the GFS is being so stubborn w this system. Maybe its on to something or seeing something differently. Not sure why, buy I've always respected the GFS for some reason.

 

Watch next week GFS shows a monster blizzard outta nowhere for someone on here

[Niko]

Attm, its 45F and cloudy skies.

[Andie]

Low of 23* tonight! And snow.

 

[Niko]

Halloween nite kids will definitely need to bundle up and who knows, maybe encountering some snowshowers as well.

[Niko]

A ton of rain coming w the weekend system. Locally more than 3" possible for mby.

[jaster220]

A ton of rain coming w the weekend system. Locally more than 3" possible for mby.

 

GRR playing catch-up as usual. They've gone from nada to sprinkles to passing showers to suddenly a full-on event. 

 

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)

Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

 

Weak ridging should keep us dry through Saturday morning, and

temperatures should bottom out near or below freezing Saturday

morning with clear skies. A potent upper level low will lift north

up the Miss. River valley on Saturday, with a strengthening

surface low expected to pass through Michigan Saturday night. Rain

is likely from Saturday afternoon or evening into part of Sunday

morning. Precip amounts have trended upward; now about an inch is

possible over much of the area.

 

The kind of trend you love to see in winter. 

[jaster220]

Gotta love the wording, lol

 

 

A nontrivial number of ensemble
members are also putting down some accumulating snow amounts over
an inch during the latter half of the week. Of course,
accumulating snow would not be atypical for the time of year.

 

(I think this was written by that new guy from down south)

[Niko]

GRR playing catch-up as usual. They've gone from nada to sprinkles to passing showers to suddenly a full-on event. 

 

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)

Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

 

Weak ridging should keep us dry through Saturday morning, and

temperatures should bottom out near or below freezing Saturday

morning with clear skies. A potent upper level low will lift north

up the Miss. River valley on Saturday, with a strengthening

surface low expected to pass through Michigan Saturday night. Rain

is likely from Saturday afternoon or evening into part of Sunday

morning. Precip amounts have trended upward; now about an inch is

possible over much of the area.

 

The kind of trend you love to see in winter. 

Now, can you imagine what snowfall amts we would be talking here tanite, had this been later in the season?! Probably very healthy accumulations, that's for sure. Probably need 2 snowblowers.

[jaster220]

A ton of rain coming w the weekend system. Locally more than 3" possible for mby.

 

What source is showing THAT much?  Needless to say, in winter this would be a serious thumper scenario.

 

[Niko]

What source is showing THAT much?  Needless to say, in winter this would be a serious thumper scenario.

 

20191024 12z GEM Gomex rainstorm.JPG

https://www.wunderground.com/hourly/us/mi/macomb%20township/48042/date/2019-10-26   2 to 3 inches is not outta the question. We will see.

 

Tbh, this is a great sign. Maybe this will be the storm track this upcoming Winter that we have been missing lately.

[Stormhunter87]

Gfs finally coming around but misses Omaha. Lame.

[GDR]

Wagons north on the runs tonight

[GDR]

Well the icon is way north and weak

[Grizzcoat]

Euro still interesting for many on this board  for early next week but the focus of this post is late next week around Halloween.

What you get when you have a hydrologist write the AFD from DMX-

 

on the early week system-

 

"Precip chances begin Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday night as surface
low pressure lifts northeast from the southern U.S. Precipitation
types will be a challenge due to the cold temperatures. Depending
on time of day and temperatures, rain, rain/snow mix or snow will
be possible. Confidence in precip types will increase as time goes
on."

 

 Could he be anymore bland and dull stating the obvious? My 8th Grade kid can write that from what he has learned in Earth Science and the semesters not even over yet....

 

"The balance of the long term period beyond Tuesday night looks dry."  

Long Term- ZOGG

 

  Really - that's all you got?

 

MPX take on things beyond Tuesday;

 

"Following this energy, the GFS may move the trough too fast
eastward, with the ECMWF slower, holding back the trough and
driving cold air well into Texas by Wednesday as a strong 130kt
300mb jet drops to the base of the trough. We will need to watch
the evolution of this trough into midweek, as the ECMWF moves
strong height falls east/northeast toward the western Great Lakes
by Halloween/Thursday. The southeast CWA could once again be
affected by this system. The 00z Canadian did develop a surface
low and lifted northeast across eastern Iowa into central
Wisconsin by Friday morning. It produced a stripe a snow across
much of the MN portion of the area. The 00z ECMWF was farther to
the east with its surface low development. Confidence is
increasing that indeed there well may be secondary, stronger
surface low development. Low end confidence on where this
eventually does develop and tracks however."

[GDR]

Looks like the Canadian went well nw also. This could turn out too be a Dakota special yet if trends continue.

[Clinton]

The overnight Euro still looks good for many.