October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Wow, what a run at 500mb....could this be a solution???  Possibly...but man, so many pieces come together on this run as a piece of energy rounding the base of the PV near the Arctic circle that tracks due South and phases with the southern energy coming up from the S Plains into a major wound storm near the GL's/Ontario.  The GL's region has been a "hot spot" early this season and may be another magnet to attract another major storm???

[bud2380]

I wouldn't trust the GFS at all IMO.  I don't think the upgrade last year has improved it's performance or reliability much.  The Euro has been showing a storm for the past 4 to 5 runs and the Canadian is now also in agreement.  I think the Euro is much more likely to be correct with at least some storm system, but obviously placement and strength are a guess at this point.  

[Iowawx]

The Euro looks like it has a big snowstorm around here next Wednesday into Thursday. It's way too early for me to get excited or believe that. I personally have never seen a snowstorm this early in the season like what the Euro is showing around here. Ground is currently way too warm for any snow to stick as well. 

[james1976]

Ground is currently way too warm for any snow to stick as well.

Not by then. That's a powerhouse cold front on its way.

[bud2380]

Canadian still has the system, but shifted much further north this run.  

[jaster220]

Wow, what a run at 500mb....could this be a solution???  Possibly...but man, so many pieces come together on this run as a piece of energy rounding the base of the PV near the Arctic circle that tracks due South and phases with the southern energy coming up from the S Plains into a major wound storm near the GL's/Ontario.  The GL's region has been a "hot spot" early this season and may be another magnet to attract another major storm???

 

Was just looping the GEFS @ 500mb thinking the same exact thing! You beat me to the posting tho, lol

 

Meanwhile, NAM 12km getting a nice look for SMI with this weekend's system bringing the rain shield across SMI Sat night.

 

[jaster220]

Canadian still has the system, but shifted much further north this run.  

 

Canadian's had a couple systems at various runs recently. Lots to sort out yet.

[jaster220]

Wow, what a run at 500mb....could this be a solution???  Possibly...but man, so many pieces come together on this run as a piece of energy rounding the base of the PV near the Arctic circle that tracks due South and phases with the southern energy coming up from the S Plains into a major wound storm near the GL's/Ontario.  The GL's region has been a "hot spot" early this season and may be another magnet to attract another major storm???

 

I don't think I've seen a deeper 500 mb signal over the Mitt. that'd be an insane wave. 

 

EDIT- Re-watched that looping 12z GFS. Man, that's eye-popping stuff right there! 

[Stormhunter87]

If that plays out wow! That would be a pounding. My dad is saying to early but man it would be a sight!

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro with a sweet track out of TX but weak sauce at 1006mb. Precip maps still loading but I can’t imagine this run is going to show snow totals anything like the previous runs.

[MinnyLakes]

Euro so far on 12z run seems to be moving just slightly south and east. CMC has well to the north (hitting just east of the one on the 12th).

[Clinton]

12z Euro looking a lot like the CMC with the double low next week.

[St Paul Storm]

Actually a lot more snow than I thought. Jack zone just NW of Rochester. Definite jump north. But at this stage it doesn’t really matter. The storm is there. That’s what we want.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, I remember you making a comment last winter how storm systems like to "follow their tracks".  When I saw the 12z GEFS run, it reminded me of your comment.  If you go way back to Hr 84 to Hr 144, both systems that are poised to effect our region literally take the same ol' track out of the CO Rockies, down into the GOM, then due North towards the GL's!  Pretty neat stuff right there.

 

 

Looks like the 12z Euro has a secondary piece of energy that rides up the thermal boundary straight out of the GOM up towards the GL's and bombs out.  Wowza.

[james1976]

I'm loving the Euro consistency.

[Tom]

12z Euro looking a lot like the CMC with the double low next week.

 

I'm interested to see what that secondary piece does, esp when its coming out of the GOM.  The models tend to focus to much on the lead wave at this range, then begin to see the main show from the secondary piece.  We saw this happen with the models last year as they struggled with how much waves of energy dug into the South.  This set up should provide us a big clue to the pattern going forward into the cold season.

[Clinton]

I'm interested to see what that secondary piece does, esp when its coming out of the GOM.  The models tend to focus to much on the lead wave at this range, then begin to see the main show from the secondary piece.  We saw this happen with the models last year as they struggled with how much waves of energy dug into the South.  This set up should provide us a big clue to the pattern going forward into the cold season.

Can you imagine all of that moisture running into some artic air!

[Niko]

Im liking the way these storms are tracking. Great sign. As for the weekend system, if it were later in the season, (colder temps) SEMI woulda had a major snowstorm.

[Tom]

12z Euro snapshot...I still can't believe we are tracking another potential major winter storm, the 2nd in the month of October...

 

 

[gabel23]

Wow the EURO has been really consistent. This would be quiet the shock if it ends up verifying; gonna be fun watching what wins out! 

[Niko]

Can you imagine all of that moisture running into some artic air!

There would be some insane totals. Nothing like powdery snows. You usually get double the amt, ratiowise.

[gabel23]

12z Euro snapshot...I still can't believe we are tracking another potential major winter storm, the 2nd in the month of October...

 

 

This would mark the 3rd straight storm in the center part of the US since the beginning of the LRC wouldn't?! We had the Dakota monster, this weeks storms with tornadoes, and then this one next week. Not jumping to any conclusions but man we could be in for one awesome LRC ride this year! 

 

Correction: you mentioned 2nd winter storm, my bad! The one this week covered a lot of area just didn't have the snow!!

[Niko]

Attm, the weather here in SEMI is absolutely gorgeous w lots of sunshine and still breezy. Temp at 54F.

[Tom]

This would mark the 3rd straight storm in the center part of the US since the beginning of the LRC wouldn't?! We had the Dakota monster, this weeks storms with tornadoes, and then this one next week. Not jumping to any conclusions but man we could be in for one awesome LRC ride this year!

 

Correction: you mentioned 2nd winter storm, my bad! The one this week covered a lot of area just didn't have the snow!!

Your right tho, this would be the 3rd strong storm to hit the central CONUS this month alone...I wonder what Nov has in store? Think about that for a second, you typically don’t see that many in an entire season, let alone 1 month. I’m sensing some wild times ahead.

[Iowawx]

Well, one snowstorm misses to the west of Cedar Rapids, the other misses to the east of Cedar Rapids. 

[GDR]

Well, one snowstorm misses to the west of Cedar Rapids, the other misses to the east of Cedar Rapids.

way too early to make a call

[jcwxguy]

Surprised Craig hasn't posted anything yet on here

[OKwx2k4]

This one is going to be an interesting wave to follow...should be a good wintry storm in future cycles down in the south for our TX/OK members and places around our region...

I'm in the sweet spot buddy. I don't care if it's only rain. Right now the pattern is where it's at. Absolutely wonderful.

 

As close to a "phase" as you can get for Oct. Wait til December!

[OKwx2k4]

@ Jaster, I remember you making a comment last winter how storm systems like to "follow their tracks". When I saw the 12z GEFS run, it reminded me of your comment. If you go way back to Hr 84 to Hr 144, both systems that are poised to effect our region literally take the same ol' track out of the CO Rockies, down into the GOM, then due North towards the GL's! Pretty neat stuff right there.

 

 

Looks like the 12z Euro has a secondary piece of energy that rides up the thermal boundary straight out of the GOM up towards the GL's and bombs out. Wowza.

1030s HPs are big for this time of year. That's more of a December-February occurrence.

[dubuque473]

NWS has 38 for a high next Wednesday, sounds fantastic to me. Warmth had been our enemy last winter, January until it really took hold it seemed. I know on New Years I was sweating walking the trials.

[BrianJK]

Chances of this being another Dakotas special?

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

 

Model differences are starting to increase

with how that system moving through the Rockies evolves, with some

pretty big differences as we get into Monday and especially

Tuesday. The more progressive models keep the pattern more open,

bringing a chance for precip on Sunday and not a whole lot

after...compared to others which show a stronger at times, slower

pattern, bringing a better chance for accumulating snow. Will be

interesting to see how things trend in the coming days.

[St Paul Storm]

Chances of this being another Dakotas special?

I’d say quite low, given the extremely cold airmass surging southeastward. I wouldn’t expect a hard left turn with a 1040mb high in Montana.

[gabel23]

Say what?!

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ014&warncounty=TXC179&firewxzone=TXZ014&local_place1=5%20Miles%20W%20Lefors%20TX&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=35.4512&lon=-100.8865#.XbDQuCVOmEc

[MinnyLakes]

Chances of this being another Dakotas special?

Not 0, but quite low given the timing. Will be a different path from the storm around the 12th.

[jaster220]

Say what?!

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ014&warncounty=TXC179&firewxzone=TXZ014&local_place1=5%20Miles%20W%20Lefors%20TX&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=35.4512&lon=-100.8865#.XbDQuCVOmEc

 

Yep. Bastardi tweeted that while it seems far south, it's not even close to their earliest record snow date which happened in Sept! Didn't mention the year but guessing a long time back for that record. 

[jaster220]

 

Never seen such frequent AFD updates in October. Got a hunch GRR's gonna be a busy office this winter! 

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

The main challenges in the period deal with the
potential for precipitation tonight...timing of the next storm
over the weekend and the risk for perhaps some snow next week.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, I remember you making a comment last winter how storm systems like to "follow their tracks".  When I saw the 12z GEFS run, it reminded me of your comment.  If you go way back to Hr 84 to Hr 144, both systems that are poised to effect our region literally take the same ol' track out of the CO Rockies, down into the GOM, then due North towards the GL's!  Pretty neat stuff right there.

 

 

Looks like the 12z Euro has a secondary piece of energy that rides up the thermal boundary straight out of the GOM up towards the GL's and bombs out.  Wowza.

 

Haha buddy, flattered you remembered. Yeah, with these major troughs, the waves often play a game of "follow the leader". Say, that Euro map with the dbl snow swaths is quite an intrigue in it's own right. That does happen, but not too often even in true winter. Just had time to peek at TT's 500mb loop and not surface maps. The wave that lays down the 2nd swath. Any chance that could ramp up quicker down our way? I mean, verbatim an inch or two before Nov 1st is pretty historic on it's own. But just curious your thoughts?  

[Niko]

Its cloudy here at mby w temps at 48F.

[Niko]

Halloween night looks like a cold one w lows near 30F. BRRRRRR!