October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Euro showing the storm next week.  Hard to know exactly looking at weather.us, but looks to lay down a nice snow from Nebraska and points northeast through NW Iowa, Eastern South Dakota, into Minnesota.  If someone has a better snow map and could post it I'd appreciate it.  Thanks

[westMJim]

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
252 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2019  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2019  
 
- WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
- BIG WAVES ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL  
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.  
 
- COLDER WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

[Iowawx]

I love everything about this satellite image...very impressive mid lat cyclone...I think we are going to get used to seeing images like these...#CentralCONUSShow

 

SLP in the 980's and knocking on MSP's doorstep...

 

 

 

 

EDIT: Pressures just dropped to 986mb!

 

NWS in Des Moines is saying some areas of northern Iowa may have wind gusts as high as 60-70mph! 

[Tom]

NWS in Des Moines is saying some areas of northern Iowa may have wind gusts as high as 60-70mph! 

Yikes!  Hold onto your hats!

[westMJim]

LMAO at "up north". What is that, a 15 min drive from Macomb??  "Up north" starts at Michigan state hwy 55. That's about 100 miles north of yby. I had an uncle, my dad's older brother, who was born and raised in Detroit. Furthest north he ever ventured during his entire lifetime was Flint. And that was for his honeymoon! You mentioned "ghost towns" north of Detroit. Cracked me up since I go outta my way to take the most off the beaten track back-roads whenever I can. Makes me remember a Purer Michigan before all the national chain stores & eateries made every town look the same. It feels closer to the Michigan I grew up with. Anyways, trains are cool. Sounds like a great cider orchard. Used to do that when the kids were young. Fresh cider, donuts, and a hay-wagon ride. An autumn tradition in SMI that I do miss.. 

To me "Up north" has M 55 as a good starting point. Even a  more south conservative starting point would be M 20.

[St Paul Storm]

Euro showing the storm next week.  Hard to know exactly looking at weather.us, but looks to lay down a nice snow from Nebraska and points northeast through NW Iowa, Eastern South Dakota, into Minnesota.  If someone has a better snow map and could post it I'd appreciate it.  Thanks

The GEM flashed this on last nights 0z run as well. Poor kids would have the wear snowsuits instead of Halloween costumes.

[jaster220]

I love everything about this satellite image...very impressive mid lat cyclone...I think we are going to get used to seeing images like these...#CentralCONUSShow

 

SLP in the 980's and knocking on MSP's doorstep...

 

 

 

 

EDIT: Pressures just dropped to 986mb!

 

 

  Beat me to it - again!  Nice that not all the strong ones are over New England. That gets OLD. If the snow-maker on the 12z GFS were to hit the Mitt, it'd be the 1-2-3 knock-out punch for the shoreline. Yikes! 

[CentralNebWeather]

Halloween was postponed in Nebraska in 1991 by a large blizzard that hit the Central Plains.  Not saying it will be anything near that strength, but it is not unprecedented to see snowstorms this time of year.  Will be fun to track the future runs.  

[jaster220]

Halloween was postponed in Nebraska in 1991 by a large blizzard that hit the Central Plains.  Not saying it will be anything near that strength, but it is not unprecedented to see snowstorms this time of year.  Will be fun to track the future runs.  

 

Was aware of the late Oct '97 bliz. Got any link to details on that one in '91?

[jaster220]

The GEM flashed this on last nights 0z run as well. Poor kids would have the wear snowsuits instead of Halloween costumes.

 

Saw that once in a video about Churchill, MB way up on Hudson's Bay. Kiddies trick-or-treating in sideways snow! Crazy. All what you're used to I suppose. Florida peeps have Christmas in their swimming pools some years I'm sure. 

[jaster220]

Man, these system trends are like unreal! 

 

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
318 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-212200-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, Hart,
Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, Alma,
Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, Holland,
Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek,
and Jackson
318 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

...High Wind Gusts and Scattered Power Outages...

Southeast winds may occasionally gust to around 50 mph at times
through early evening, mainly as heavier rain showers are passing
through. Winds this strong could bring down tree limbs and result in
scattered power outages. Travel may be difficult for those driving
high profile vehicles.

[gabel23]

Was aware of the late Oct '97 bliz. Got any link to details on that one in '91?

 

 

Halloween was postponed in Nebraska in 1991 by a large blizzard that hit the Central Plains.  Not saying it will be anything near that strength, but it is not unprecedented to see snowstorms this time of year.  Will be fun to track the future runs.  

I remember that storm, we set numerous records for coldest temps following that blizzard. That was one for the record books. I haven't found any info for our area but this link gives you a general idea of the storm. 

[Stormy]

I got just 0.32” of rain today while my sister around 7 miles southeast reported 0.80”. Was nice to see and hear some decent lightning/thunder again, but it seems I rarely get a solid hit since June.

 

I netted just 0.11” from the previous rain a few days ago.

[james1976]

[bud2380]

Here is the Euro.

 

[St Paul Storm]

Was aware of the late Oct '97 bliz. Got any link to details on that one in '91?

I don’t have any links to the effects in NE, but here’s the link to the story about the 1991 Halloween blizzard here in the TC. The all-time biggest storm. Not many people remember this storm as there were 2 storms in the Atlantic at the same time that converged into one. That’s the basis for the movie Perfect Storm.

 

https://www.kare11.com/mobile/article/weather/halloween-blizzard-of-91-by-the-numbers/344986128

[Stormhunter87]

Love seeing this trend! Went camping over the weekend and the days were amazing but man it got cold during the night. Also interesting they released a bunch of pheasants for the youth hunt weekend where we were and saw tons of them in the park. A bunch of them did not want to cross the road into the public hunting areas.

[Northland09]

Was aware of the late Oct '97 bliz. Got any link to details on that one in '91?

 

Jaster, here you go!: http://climateapps.dnr.state.mn.us/doc/journal/halloween_blizzard.htm  Everyone who was living in Minnesota at that time remembers the Halloween blizzard.  Every year it gets brought up I swear to this day!  It's one of those days you'd remember what you were doing.  I was 7, so my memory is kind of vague.  I remember going to a few houses but the weather was too bad.  Not a whole lot of kids out that night, at least in our neighborhood!

[Andie]

This is how close the Tornado came to my cousins house in Dallas...it was less than a mile from his place...he's counting his blessings this morning as nothing happened to his home.

It started in the heart of the City. Very rare for Texas. I got a local news report that it was upgraded to a F3. 140 mph.

[westMJim]

Saw that once in a video about Churchill, MB way up on Hudson's Bay. Kiddies trick-or-treating in sideways snow! Crazy. All what you're used to I suppose. Florida peeps have Christmas in their swimming pools some years I'm sure. 

I have been in south Florida many years at Christmas. While cook outs are common and pool side might work but in the pool might be pushing it a little. The last time we were down there at Christmas in 2015 it was in the low 70's on Christmas day. The warmest was in the upper 70's (on Christmas day) it had been in the 80's but not on Christmas when I was there it was in the 80's on other days.

[CentralNebWeather]

Was aware of the late Oct '97 bliz. Got any link to details on that one in '91?

I’ll do some looking

[Andie]

A shameless advert........

 

Check out Earth Sci. Texas had 4 more quakes.

 

Anybody know what's going on here? That's 7 in almost as many days.

[jaster220]

Lake Superior upgraded. Serious waves out there with winds running the length of it.

 

 

 

Storm Warning

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
851 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

LSZ263>266-220400-
/O.CON.KMQT.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-191022T0400Z/
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
851 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

A Storm Warning remains in effect until midnight EDT tonight.

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE STORM WARNING...Expect sustained
winds of up to 40 knots from the east, with gusts up to 56
knots. The largest expected significant waves will be 20 feet
with a maximum wave height of up to 30 feet possible.

* TIMING...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EDT Monday
with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Monday.

 

[Niko]

Attm, a mild, balmy 59F w rain.

[Niko]

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

356 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019
 

MIZ049-055-063-070-220900-

Huron-Sanilac-St. Clair-Macomb-

356 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
 

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory is in effect today and tonight along the

Lake Huron shoreline.
 

Gusty southeast winds of 25 to 35 mph will develop today in response

to the strong storm system over the upper Mississippi River Valley.

Thunderstorm development will be possible between 9 pm and 1 am

tonight along and ahead of a cold front. The potential exists for

isolated wind gusts of up to 45 mph with any shower or thunderstorm

activity along the front. Storm movement this evening is expected to

be to the north northeast at approximately 60 mph.
 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
 

A Lakeshore Flood Warning is in effect Tuesday along the northern

Lake St Clair shoreline.

 

[Niko]

Went out to dinner tanite and because of the rain, it felt like a ghost town out there. Nothing like a city nightlife.

[MarcusBeier]

A shameless advert........

 

Check out Earth Sci. Texas had 4 more quakes.

 

Anybody know what's going on here? That's 7 in almost as many days.

 

 

FRACKING!!

[Niko]

Halloween nite looks crazy weatherwise. Someone here is going to experience some real, wacky weather. Mine forecast saids rain/snow mix changing to all snow w windy conditions. Temps falling to near freezing. Hope it does not verify for my area. I can wait for Thanksgiving week. That outta be a perfect timing.

[Niko]

A shameless advert........

 

Check out Earth Sci. Texas had 4 more quakes.

 

Anybody know what's going on here? That's 7 in almost as many days.

It sounded like a sonic boom, and then the house started shaking,” Keith Krayer, a local resident who felt the effects of the quake, told RT.

 

The quake was sparked by fracking. “When they frack, they inject all that water and chemicals into the ground, then they pump it back up and separate the gas from the water, then they have to dispose of that water 13,000 feet down. It causes the plates to slip, the lubrication from the water.”

 This is cause due to a sudden release of energy in the Earth’s crust. While rare in Texas, earthquakes have been recorded recently, but not frequently.

[jaster220]

I remember that storm, we set numerous records for coldest temps following that blizzard. That was one for the record books. I haven't found any info for our area but this link gives you a general idea of the storm. 

 

Awesome and thx (only link is not taking me anywhere?)

 

I don’t have any links to the effects in NE, but here’s the link to the story about the 1991 Halloween blizzard here in the TC. The all-time biggest storm. Not many people remember this storm as there were 2 storms in the Atlantic at the same time that converged into one. That’s the basis for the movie Perfect Storm.

 

https://www.kare11.com/mobile/article/weather/halloween-blizzard-of-91-by-the-numbers/344986128

 

Awesome storm and a major surprise (back when that still happened at times)

 

Jaster, here you go!: http://climateapps.dnr.state.mn.us/doc/journal/halloween_blizzard.htm  Everyone who was living in Minnesota at that time remembers the Halloween blizzard.  Every year it gets brought up I swear to this day!  It's one of those days you'd remember what you were doing.  I was 7, so my memory is kind of vague.  I remember going to a few houses but the weather was too bad.  Not a whole lot of kids out that night, at least in our neighborhood!

 

Great article - thx!  Yeah, the 3 largest storms here also hit when I was young so I know what you mean!

 

I’ll do some looking

 

Thx. Was it the same storm that hit MN or different? Same Halloween right?

[jaster220]

  1st flake icon of 2019-20 season in my grid

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Yesterday was so calm, a beautiful 70F and sunny. Truly an amazing flip of a switch.

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
405 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW BATTLE CREEK 42.31N 85.20W
10/21/2019 CALHOUN MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

REPORTS OF A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
AROUND BATTLE CREEK. PER CITY OF BATTLE
CREEK TWITTER FEED. TRAFFIC SIGNAL OUTAGES.
PICTURE OF A LARGE TREE DOWN ON SONOMA RD.

 

 

0237 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE SPRINGFIELD 42.32N 85.23W
10/21/2019 M53 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

ASOS STATION KBTL BATTLE CREEK.

 

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
408 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0346 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE EDGEMONT PARK 42.78N 84.58W
10/21/2019 M45 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

ASOS STATION KLAN LANSING.

[Niko]

Rain is about to end. Looks like .25" to .30" outta be it. Winds are not that bad, but will get gusty tomorrow. Temp at a balmy 59F.

[Niko]

 

 Are ya currently situated in FL. I remember you used to live in MI.

[gabel23]

Awesome and thx (only link is not taking me anywhere?)

 

 

Awesome storm and a major surprise (back when that still happened at times)

 

 

Great article - thx! Yeah, the 3 largest storms here also hit when I was young so I know what you mean!

 

 

Thx. Was it the same storm that hit MN or different? Same Halloween right?

Take 2!

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/halloween-blizzard-1991

[Grizzcoat]

Was my senior year of HS in 1991 living in the N Metro of the Twin Cities. Long story short - and I have mentioned this before here - my buddies and  I drove our snowmobiles down I-35 past the Dome than back around I-94 to I-694.  Only traffic was snowmobiles-- it was awesome!! After it stopped  snowing the roads  ( including freeways) were like washboards for days due to the initial slop freezing and turning into ruts.

[Grizzcoat]

In one of the articles about the Halloween Blizzard of 91' ;

 

"Duluth wound up with 36.9 inches of snow from this storm and was the largest single snowstorm total for Minnesota until 46.5 inches fell from January 6-8, 1994 near Finland in Cook County."

 

That's more than many on this board see in a season.

[Tom]

It's been a windy night with temps holding steady around 50F since about midnight.  I love seeing Wind Warnings/Advisories hoisted for our region.  It certainly makes it feel like real Autumn is here to stay as another October goes on by where our Sub is enduring most of the action this Fall season thus far.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

I'm finding some similarities to a pattern which I've seen before that produced some memorable Winter Storms/Blizzards in year's past.  Since the beginning of this year's LRC, it's been clear that we have been seeing systems sliding S/SE into the N Rockies.  As the -EPO grows stronger, these systems in future cycles will eventually dig deeper into the S Plains as the energy ejects out in the Plains states.  With that being said, the potential Halloween system has an eerily similar look across N. A.  Check out what the models are showing and compare it to the pattern back on Jan 30th - Feb 2nd 2011.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VS........Notice the key features: 1) NE PAC Ridge, SW Trough, Hudson Bay Vortex....

 

Jan 31st 2011...

 

 

 

 

 

Feb 1st 2011...

 

 

 

 

 

As we progress through this month and into November, it looks to me like the -EPO will be a big player that'll allow those cold Canadian HP's to form out of western Canada where our source region of Arctic air will come from and drive deep into the southern Plains.  These patterns are very favorable for enhanced activity across our central/southern Sub Forum.  

[Clinton]

I'm finding some similarities to a pattern which I've seen before that produced some memorable Winter Storms/Blizzards in year's past.  Since the beginning of this year's LRC, it's been clear that we have been seeing systems sliding S/SE into the N Rockies.  As the -EPO grows stronger, these systems in future cycles will eventually dig deeper into the S Plains as the energy ejects out in the Plains states.  With that being said, the potential Halloween system has an eerily similar look across N. A.  Check out what the models are showing and compare it to the pattern back on Jan 30th - Feb 2nd 2011.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VS........Notice the key features: 1) NE PAC Ridge, SW Trough, Hudson Bay Vortex....

 

Jan 31st 2011...

 

 

 

 

 

Feb 1st 2011...

 

 

 

 

 

As we progress through this month and into November, it looks to me like the -EPO will be a big player that'll allow those cold Canadian HP's to form out of western Canada where our source region of Arctic air will come from and drive deep into the southern Plains.  These patterns are very favorable for enhanced activity across our central/southern Sub Forum.  

Feb 2011 was a wild month which included the largest snowstorm in history for me.  If I remember right we had 40 inches of snow that month including a 26 in blizzard.