October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

Gorgeous clear morning with 51*. High of 75*

 

Can I copy and paste today for a lifetime?

Perfection!!!

[jaster220]

You have to wonder if the models in the long range, especially, some of the climate models which are forecasting ZERO arctic blocking.  I mean, they have all done a terrible job in the extended bc now all of them are showing major high lat blocking to lock in for the remainder of this month and some are suggesting it roll on into November.  Looking at the 500mb maps are a thing of beauty if you ask me.  For example, can we just lock in this wave pattern throughout the cold season???  W NAMER Ridge, Slight SER, High Lat Blocking, East Asian Trough & Aleutian Low....my goodness, this is the epitome of why I seemingly believe this will become a cold season whereby..."Legends are Made"

 

 

 

 

 

The winter of 1880–1881 is widely considered the most severe winter ever known in parts of the United States.

 

 

 

IF that pattern above were to verify, one has to wonder if we might be in a league on that order of magnitude?  Whereas 2013-14 stole the crown in Detroit, it was a fairly confined region that experienced the combined record conditions. 1880-81 was historic over a much broader area, from the N Plains eastward to KBUF? (not totally sure on the far east extent tbh) it was Detroit's worst for 134 yrs until dethroned 6 yrs ago, I do know that. Another one is 1888 which ranged from the School Children's bliz to the Great New England bliz in March of that same winter. 

 

Just musings here fwiw but even my director mentioned this winter as expecting to be long and nasty this morning. First time I've heard him even speak of wx so the word's getting around I guess.  

[jaster220]

Bomb Cyclone in the NE caused a lot of power outages and uprooted trees from very strong winds and hvy rainfall. Even my area is getting some back edge showers and wind currently from this system, especially yesterday when I was receiving constant light rain and gusty winds.

 

 

Seems like this bombed slightly slower than expected? Nonetheless, a 90 mph gust from a non-tropical system is very impressive!

 

 

Due to the slower development, not sure if any pressure records were set along it's path?

[jaster220]

First sub-freezing low in my grid for tonight @ 31F   Gon' b chilly

[jaster220]

If the JMA weeklies are right, this will undoubtedly lock in a favorable pattern for our Sub Forum if your a winter wx enthusiast.  The only issue I have for our western members is having to deal with a drier than normal pattern that may set up esp when you pop the NW NAMER ridge.  It's not an ideal set up for the central/southern Plains and has been on my mind for a while now. 

 

With that being said, last weeks run was out of touch with the strength of the SER and much to strong, as well as, the western U.S. trough given the pattern which had been evolving in the N PAC that suggested otherwise  Keeping that in mind, I now see the model has flipped away from the western U.S. trough/SER and now more in line with the LR tools that I've been using this season.

 

Check out the Week 2 maps below...nice convection in the N/C PAC, Western N.A. Ridge...

 

 

 

Temps....

 

 

 

Week 3-4....convection remains in the N/C PAC along with a NW NAMER Ridge....

 

 

 

Temps...

 

 

 

Lastly, the SST's across the entire PAC are strikingly fascinating as we have a Modoki Nino developing which correlates with a Nino atmospheric response along with a Nina across the E PAC.  I haven't seen such a pattern in my years of tracking the wx as I do now.  Lets not forget, the warm blob in the NE PAC that is in a prime location, just off the western N.A. coastline.  This orientation I believe will be a saving grace from ridging being to severe later in the cold season and allow storms to form farther west across our Sub.  #insiderunners

 

 

 

JMA is a thing of beauty Tom!  Along with your other post, it's hard not to be stoked for the potential looming. 

[Tom]

JMA is a thing of beauty Tom!  Along with your other post, it's hard not to be stoked for the potential looming. 

Ya buddy!  I really believe it balances out for those who missed out the last couple of seasons.  We are overdue for a good winter around these parts.  Sure, we had an average snow season last year and the year prior, but the warm ups killed the winter mood.  You know what I'm saying!     I'd like to see it start off fast and not let go...let's push it to the max Mother Nature!  #Legendary

[Niko]

The winter of 1880–1881 is widely considered the most severe winter ever known in parts of the United States.

 

1881.jpg

 

 

IF that pattern above were to verify, one has to wonder if we might be in a league on that order of magnitude?  Whereas 2013-14 stole the crown in Detroit, it was a fairly confined region that experienced the combined record conditions. 1880-81 was historic over a much broader area, from the N Plains eastward to KBUF? (not totally sure on the far east extent tbh) it was Detroit's worst for 134 yrs until dethroned 6 yrs ago, I do know that. Another one is 1888 which ranged from the School Children's bliz to the Great New England bliz in March of that same winter. 

 

Just musings here fwiw but even my director mentioned this winter as expecting to be long and nasty this morning. First time I've heard him even speak of wx so the word's getting around I guess.  

That seemed to have been a doozy of a Winter. Repeat this year?!?! Ma Nature can do it all ova again if she wants too.

[Niko]

Seems like this bombed slightly slower than expected? Nonetheless, a 90 mph gust from a non-tropical system is very impressive!

 

20191017 New England Peak Wind Gusts.JPG

 

Due to the slower development, not sure if any pressure records were set along it's path?

Indeed, this is an impressive Nor'easter. I can only imagine what D,J and F will be like. Heck, even March, where sometimes, proves to have the most dangerous and disruptive Nor'easters.

[Niko]

Attm, its mostly sunny and breezy w temps at 51F.

[Niko]

Danger is brewing in the GOM and its headed due NE for the EC. Another Nor'easter in the works??!!

[jaster220]

That seemed to have been a doozy of a Winter. Repeat this year?!?! Ma Nature can do it all ova again if she wants too.

 

Per the new outlook maps from NOAA, they are getting on board for the N Plains region. While other outlets such as WxBell and the Cleveland TV Channel that WMJim posted are more focusing the sweet-zone from OH on northeast. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. Perhaps the entire expanse will score big? 

[Niko]

My first Freeze Warning of the season ladies N gentlemen...here we go.....temps getting down into the upper 20s to near 30F. WHOA!!!!!!!!

 

Freeze Warning for Macomb County, Michigan

From 2:00am EDT, Fri Oct 18 until 8:00am EDT, Fri Oct 18

Action Recommended: Execute a pre-planned activity identified in the instructions Issued by: Detroit - MI, US, National Weather Service,

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures for several hours after midnight through sunrise Friday. Low temperatures near 30 occur in most areas with upper 20s possible in typically colder locations. * WHERE...All of Southeast Michigan. * WHEN...From 2 AM tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. &&

[Niko]

Per the new outlook maps from NOAA, they are getting on board for the N Plains region. While other outlets such as WxBell and the Cleveland TV Channel that WMJim posted are more focusing the sweet-zone from OH on northeast. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. Perhaps the entire expanse will score big? 

Hopefully amigo. I have a very good feeling about this Winter coming up.

[jaster220]

Hopefully amigo. I have a very good feeling about this Winter coming up.

 

SEMI scores best when we get the bitter cold temps. The marginal S Stream dominated winters like last year never work out well for Motown. 

 

Looks like I've been upgraded to the Freeze Warning as well. Might as well get these trees moving along, summer flowers "zapped" as Hawkeye says, and I might want to pull my garden hose into the garage. 

[jaster220]

Hopefully amigo. I have a very good feeling about this Winter coming up.

 

Oh, and like NOBODY west of Tom is even commenting? I mean, those NOAA updates look pretty friendly for MN and WI, not just us further east. 

[OKwx2k4]

You have to wonder if the models in the long range, especially, some of the climate models which are forecasting ZERO arctic blocking. I mean, they have all done a terrible job in the extended bc now all of them are showing major high lat blocking to lock in for the remainder of this month and some are suggesting it roll on into November. Looking at the 500mb maps are a thing of beauty if you ask me. For example, can we just lock in this wave pattern throughout the cold season??? W NAMER Ridge, Slight SER, High Lat Blocking, East Asian Trough & Aleutian Low....my goodness, this is the epitome of why I seemingly believe this will become a cold season whereby..."Legends are Made"

 

 

 

If you were to teach and explain what the precursor to a real winter in the heartland looks like, just save that image.

 

Dreamland. So beautiful.

 

Bering Sea/Aleutian low reloads to lock in and guarantee the next 21-25 days over the CONUS per the BSR also. I just wonder how long this can go on for. I don't want it wasted in Autumn.

[St Paul Storm]

Oh, and like NOBODY west of Tom is even commenting? I mean, those NOAA updates look pretty friendly for MN and WI, not just us further east.

 

Shhhhhh.....don’t jinx it!

[OKwx2k4]

Shhhhhh.....don’t jinx it!

[james1976]

I'm west of Tom and I'm very excited about this upcoming Winter!

[Grizzcoat]

Amazing that MSP still has not had an official freeze. I believe the lowest they have been is 33F.

[jaster220]

Amazing that MSP still has not had an official freeze. I believe the lowest they have been is 33F.

 

Legit freeze here tonight, followed by three days of Indian Summer. I can deal with this 

[jaster220]

Nice breakdown for any severe wx with this next strong Plains storm

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uEqvGIz9YY&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=2

[Niko]

Attm, 44F w mostly cloudy skies.

[Niko]

Oh, and like NOBODY west of Tom is even commenting? I mean, those NOAA updates look pretty friendly for MN and WI, not just us further east. 

True, wow. They look pretty good actually.

[Niko]

SEMI scores best when we get the bitter cold temps. The marginal S Stream dominated winters like last year never work out well for Motown. 

 

Looks like I've been upgraded to the Freeze Warning as well. Might as well get these trees moving along, summer flowers "zapped" as Hawkeye says, and I might want to pull my garden hose into the garage. 

Cant wait to see what our low temp will be.

[Niko]

Looks like Indian Summer will pay a visit next week as temps will get into the upper 60s. Its a 2 day warm-up followed by a cooldown and then, a major cooldown further ahead as we head into Halloween week.

[Tom]

Overnight model runs are showing a thing of beauty at 500mb with major High Latitude Blocking, re-surging lobes of cold air into the central CONUS, Cross Polar Flow towards the last week of the month, storm track right through our Sub....what more can you ask for????  IMO, as this pattern sets up, one of the more important features I'm looking for at this stage is the location of the Blocking patterns that are forecast to set up. 

 

1) West-Based Greenland Block (features a pattern conducive for more cutters) 

2) S Cali/SW Ridge (Inside Runners) 

3) NW NAMER Ridge/AK Ridge (Polar Flow)

4) Arctic Block

 

 

 

 

 

It's been a while since I've seen a temp departure as such...Nation under siege of cold....#SolarMin

 

 

[Tom]

Oh, let's not forget the snowstorm the 00z Euro is showing Day 6-7 across N IA/SD/MN/WI...boy, this pattern is loaded across our Sub Forum.  Before we get there, I've been predicting a tropical system to come out of the GOM during the week of the 20th, might be a day or so early, but the long standing idea had merit as we have a Tropical system forming in the GOM that could be our next named storm (Nestor).  I gotta tell ya guys, there is so much I wanna discuss here in the LR but I really don't have the time to today.  All I gotta say, this is going to be one of the most incredible LRC patterns I've been following to date.  Really fascinating stuff.

 

 

Should we start a storm thread for the 20th/21st storm???  Or just keep it in our general discussions???

[Tom]

If there were a Snow Advance Index for Canada, it would be off the charts to close out the month.  This is a BIG clue for North America and the lower 48 as we head deeper into the cold season.  In fact, the chart below shows the entire N. Hemisphere is on a "rocket" start in the snow dept.  We are seeing something truly spectacular unveiling from Mother Nature as Ol' Man Winter is out of hibernation early and making its presence felt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

DMX morning discussion was a pretty detailed write up and started with "We have much to discuss". Haha gotta love it. Things are revving up my friends!

[jaster220]

Good write-up from NWS on the storm for Lake/West Mich.

 

https://www.weather.gov/grr/20191016_WavesAndWind

 

 

 

[jaster220]

DMX morning discussion was a pretty detailed write up and started with "We have much to discuss". Haha gotta love it. Things are revving up my friends!

 

#goodtimes!

[westMJim]

I had my first freeze of the season this morning with a low of 30° and there was ice in the bird bath. The official low at GRR was 32 so once again it was warmer at the airport then here at my house. The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 51/40. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 60/41. The record high was 84 set in 1950 and the record low is a cold 19 set in 1976.

 

Here is the latest fall color report

2019

https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-northeast-us/foliage-reports-northeast-us-archive/foliage-reports-northeast-us-archive-2017/129-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-current-season/902-mw-foliage-report-12-2019

and for comparisons last year

https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/175-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2018/843-mw-foliage-report-13-2018

[jaster220]

KRMY bottomed at 31F just about 8 am this morn. Nice solid freeze in the bag. First time since (can't remember when) last spring I stepped out and there was a solid thick batch of frost on my deck railing. Trees are lighting up like Christmas lights at Thanksgiving around the region as well. Better color than I expected with all the dryness we had for a while. Still can't hold a candle to NMI, but pockets around marshlands especially are looking good attm. Should be a stellar Oct weekend. Enjoy everybody!

[Niko]

 For some reason, this is turning out to be one heck of a color season and also leaves are starting to fall now as well. Whereas, last year and the year b4 that, the colors were not as noticeable.

 

KRMY bottomed at 31F just about 8 am this morn. Nice solid freeze in the bag. First time since (can't remember when) last spring I stepped out and there was a solid thick batch of frost on my deck railing. Trees are lighting up like Christmas lights at Thanksgiving around the region as well. Better color than I expected with all the dryness we had for a while. Still can't hold a candle to NMI, but pockets around marshlands especially are looking good attm. Should be a stellar Oct weekend. Enjoy everybody!

[Niko]

My grass this morning had white ice crystals. Temps made it down to 30F. Sweet.

[Niko]

Man, towards the end of the month and into November, it really starts cooling off. Hope it does not mock up December.

[Jaycee]

Driving to Madison this morning! I left extra early so I could take the backroads up to Kenosha. The autumn scenery is so GORGEOUS! Absolutely love this weather. Though this month has been dry, the temperatures are something I definitely can’t complain about. I’m here for it!

[Tom]

Driving to Madison this morning! I left extra early so I could take the backroads up to Kenosha. The autumn scenery is so GORGEOUS! Absolutely love this weather. Though this month has been dry, the temperatures are something I definitely can’t complain about. I’m here for it!

Those kind of drives are some of the best in the back country. Did you see a lot of Frost? I’m sure he colors were splendid. Have fun!

[Tom]

My temp dropped to 34F with a little more Frost than the other day this week. Low lying areas had a thick layer of Frost. Looking forward to a warmer weekend and finish up some more out door winterizing and cleaning. During the last storm that hit the Upper MW, a large 6” branch fell on my wood fence so I have to nail some boards back up. Have a Fantastic Friday!