October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Stormy]

I live in IA. But got Serious roots in MN. reason why i know my MN stats. Anything you wanna know about MN Weather - I can hammer it out. (MN CLIMO working group is aweseome) Been in IA for 20+ years- I know of no site for IA similalr?

 

Do you have a link to the Mn. climate site? I like looking at climate history, if I have time.

 

The IEM has tons of archived data, but I don’t know how that compares to the site you’re talking about.

[westMJim]

Good morning here at my house I recorded 0.21” of rain yesterday and overnight. At the Airport they reported 0.36” for yesterday. The H/L at GRR yesterday was 62/48. At this time it is 48 both here at my house and the airport. The sky is cloudy and there is not much wind at this time.  For today the average H/L is 58/40 the record high is 83 in 1953 and the record low is 20 in 1895. Last year the H/L was 46/35.

[Niko]

Attm, at 52F under mostly sunny skies. A few clouds here and there blocking the sun from time to time. Its breezy as well.

[Niko]

Lakeshore Flood Warning

Coastal Hazard MessageNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI318 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019MIZ063-070-222000-/O.CON.KDTX.LS.W.0015.191022T1400Z-191023T0400Z/St. Clair-Macomb-318 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THISMORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...* Lake Shore Flooding...Southwest winds will increase  significantly on Tuesday with gusts to 30 mph by midday. This  will lead to high water levels along the north Lake St Clair  shoreline, especially through Anchor Bay.* Impacts...Shoreline erosion, damage to docks, and minor flooding  along the shore can be expected.

That south wind will do some damage to property, that's for sure.

[Niko]

I got just 0.32” of rain today while my sister around 7 miles southeast reported 0.80”. Was nice to see and hear some decent lightning/thunder again, but it seems I rarely get a solid hit since June.

 

I netted just 0.11” from the previous rain a few days ago.

Same here, very little. At .36" total rainfall.

[Andie]

It sounded like a sonic boom, and then the house started shaking,” Keith Krayer, a local resident who felt the effects of the quake, told RT.

 

The quake was sparked by fracking. “When they frack, they inject all that water and chemicals into the ground, then they pump it back up and separate the gas from the water, then they have to dispose of that water 13,000 feet down. It causes the plates to slip, the lubrication from the water.”

 This is cause due to a sudden release of energy in the Earth’s crust. While rare in Texas, earthquakes have been recorded recently, but not frequently.

I can accept the reason for the quakes in the eastern half of the state as fracking. But the west in congress with the east is puzzling. Yes they do oil and gas work out there but it's traditional technology. Some of these were on the southern border and up in the Panhandle. Very very odd to see this mass cluster.

Thanks for the info. I'll keep an eye on this. We aren't in danger, it's just that it is an odd cluster of quakes. Very rare.

[Beltrami Island]

In one of the articles about the Halloween Blizzard of 91' ;

 

"Duluth wound up with 36.9 inches of snow from this storm and was the largest single snowstorm total for Minnesota until 46.5 inches fell from January 6-8, 1994 near Finland in Cook County."

 

 

 

As an aside, I believe that weather station near Finland, MN is called Wolf Ridge.  It is pretty much in the snowiest location in Minnesota.  It is the confluence of cold air in northern minnesota and lake effect/enhanced snowfall when storms bring east winds off lake superior.  Its about 600' above the lake but less then a mile from it supporting strong orthographic lift by Minnesota standards.

[bud2380]

Trick or treat on the Euro.  Halloween night, this is snow falling on the backside in Iowa.

 

[jaster220]

Tom said:

 

I'm finding some similarities to a pattern which I've seen before that produced some memorable Winter Storms/Blizzards in year's past.  Since the beginning of this year's LRC, it's been clear that we have been seeing systems sliding S/SE into the N Rockies.  As the -EPO grows stronger, these systems in future cycles will eventually dig deeper into the S Plains as the energy ejects out in the Plains states.  With that being said, the potential Halloween system has an eerily similar look across N. A.  Check out what the models are showing and compare it to the pattern back on Jan 30th - Feb 2nd 2011.

 

Nice analog find Tom. Models indeed are recognizing the set-up and keep flashing various possible outcomes such as this beauty. It all comes down to "realizing the potential" and how any given wave takes advantage of the trough.

 

[jaster220]

/\ That btw, looks eerily close to the Nov 16, 1989 bliz scenario. Earliest bliz for the Mitt that I personally experienced.

 

The Nov 2-3, 1966 bliz happened when I was too young to be aware it was even happening. 

[james1976]

Trick or treat on the Euro. Halloween night, this is snow falling on the backside in Iowa.

 

euro.PNG

Bring that baby a bit more NW!

[Niko]

it is a windy day today. Getting wind gusts of 40mph.

[jaster220]

Take 2!

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/halloween-blizzard-1991

 

Now I see, thx. It indeed clocked NE in addition to the well-known impacts further north. (the Oct '97 storm focused more east towards OMA if my memory is intact). 

 

 

In '91 I was living in NMI where the map shows 2-6". I do remember some snow on the order of 4" so that seems right. I never knew that SWMI did even better with the cold arctic air on the heels of the bliz. 

[jaster220]

it is a windy day today. Getting wind gusts of 40mph.

 

With a 29.61" baro, the wind and squalls are hitting and it's pretty raw out there attm. 48F windchill

 

[Niko]

With a 29.61" baro, the wind and squalls are hitting and it's pretty raw out there attm. 48F windchill

 

20191022 1307 Nexrad.png

 Wcf not so bad, mostly the wind. Bins are all ova the pl. in my sub.

 

B4 ya know it, those squalls will be snow

[Niko]

Potential exists to experience highs in the 30s as that cold air filters in months end. That Greenland Block means business y'all.

[St Paul Storm]

41F with a wind chill of 32F. Cold light rain most of the morning. I’d say about a third of my trees are almost bare already after the howling winds last night and this morning. The yard is a leaf disaster. Good thing the models have backed off on any snow potential. Need a few weekends to get the mess cleaned up.

[CentralNebWeather]

Now I see, thx. It indeed clocked NE in addition to the well-known impacts further north. (the Oct '97 storm focused more east towards OMA if my memory is intact). 

 

october-31-november-4-1991-regional-snowfall-index-map.png

 

In '91 I was living in NMI where the map shows 2-6". I do remember some snow on the order of 4" so that seems right. I never knew that SWMI did even better with the cold arctic air on the heels of the bliz. 

 

Now I see, thx. It indeed clocked NE in addition to the well-known impacts further north. (the Oct '97 storm focused more east towards OMA if my memory is intact). 

 

october-31-november-4-1991-regional-snowfall-index-map.png

 

In '91 I was living in NMI where the map shows 2-6". I do remember some snow on the order of 4" so that seems right. I never knew that SWMI did even better with the cold arctic air on the heels of the bliz. 

I am one of those dots in Central Nebraska that measured between 12-18".  Winds were the big deal, many large drifts.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and Euro have diverged at the end of the month.  The GFS has gone to just a dry northwest flow, with no energy digging farther west and developing a storm, while the Euro continues to show digging energy and a big storm.

[Tom]

The GFS and Euro have diverged at the end of the month.  The GFS has gone to just a dry northwest flow, with no energy digging farther west and developing a storm, while the Euro continues to show digging energy and a big storm.

 

This next 5-10 day period reminds me so much of last year how bad the models handled western energy.  As it stands now, the models are now starting to see the energy "kick" out a little faster each day.  Our pattern has been pretty much progressive as systems continue to march on through our Sub, except for when they blow up and occlude.  Should be a fun couple of days seeing which model figures this pattern out.

[bud2380]

12z Euro blasts the Twin Cities with a huge snowstorm next week. 

[Clinton]

That could be a biggie!

[Niko]

That could be a biggie!

WHOA!

[james1976]

Halloween '91 repeat lol

[Niko]

I just had wind gusts to 45 mph. Dang! Skies are mostly cloudy. Bins are all flying away.

[St Paul Storm]

I guess I should have waited for the Euro before I opened my mouth about the models backing off on the snow. Dream run, but anyone that digs in on 200 hour snow maps in October is setting themselves up for disappointment. Eye candy yes. Chances of verifying...5%.

[Andie]

Dallas had 2 tornados Sunday pm. F3 and this, a F1.

 

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth confirms and EF-1 tornado touched down in Rockwall Sunday night.

 

The NWS said video footage made available by the city helped estimate the winds at 90 mph, giving the tornado an EF-1 rating.

[jaster220]

I guess I should have waited for the Euro before I opened my mouth about the models backing off on the snow. Dream run, but anyone that digs in on 200 hour snow maps in October is setting themselves up for disappointment. Eye candy yes. Chances of verifying...5%.

 

Get those leafs raked! 

[Stormy]

Sparky-go and see that vid Jaster posted on "Autumn/Winter discussions" You will like it. I promise!

On what page was it posted? Thanks ahead of time.

 

I got behind in following that thread and probably read only the first page yet! It’s hard to catch up when I’m that far behind!

[jaster220]

Gonna be a long night for some..

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
257 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM LAKESHORE FLOOD 4 WNW ROOSEVELT PARK 43.23N 86.34W
10/22/2019 MUSKEGON MI NWS EMPLOYEE

RESTAURANT ON BEACH STREET FLOODED.

0245 PM LAKESHORE FLOOD 1 ESE MONTAGUE 43.41N 86.35W
10/22/2019 MUSKEGON MI NWS EMPLOYEE

GAS DOCK AND PARKING LOTS FLOODED AT MARINA
ON WHITE LAKE.

[jaster220]

I guess I should have waited for the Euro before I opened my mouth about the models backing off on the snow. Dream run, but anyone that digs in on 200 hour snow maps in October is setting themselves up for disappointment. Eye candy yes. Chances of verifying...5%.

 

Obviously, your region would be favored for anything strong just based on climo/history/earliness. I think there's 2 scenarios. A progressive flow and development is further NW storm as shown on that Euro outcome. A slower later development might be further east. Question is as always for this SMI region - can the cold get in here to make it more than a chilly rainer? 

[jaster220]

Halloween '91 repeat lol

 

Was thinking the same

[GDR]

What does the gfs look like?

[St Paul Storm]

What does the gfs look like?

The 12z op run showed a 1036mb high instead. Some of the ensembles show a storm however.

[Minny_Weather]

The temperature had been pretty steady throughout the day but is now starting to drop. Very breezy. 52.9*F.

[Andie]

Dallas had 2 tornados Sunday pm. F3 and this, a F1.

 

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth confirms and EF-1 tornado touched down in Rockwall Sunday night.

 

The NWS said video footage made available by the city helped estimate the winds at 90 mph, giving the tornado an EF-1 rating.

They just updated tornados again. Wow

 

EF3 and EF2 (upgraded)

 

Edit:

 

The National Weather Service has, so far, confirmed nine tornadoes to have touched down in North Texas on Sunday including an EF-3 that ripped through North Dallas with maximum wind speeds of 140 mph, an EF-2 that hit the southwestern side of Garland, an EF-1 confirmed Tuesday in Rockwall, an EF-1 confirmed Monday in Rowlett, an EF-1 confirmed Tuesday in Midlothian, an EF-1 confirmed Tuesday in Kaufman County, an EF-0 confirmed Tuesday in Kaufman County, an EF-0 confirmed Tuesday in Ferris and and EF-0 confirmed Monday in Wills Point.

[MarcusBeier]

 Are ya currently situated in FL. I remember you used to live in MI.

  Indeed my friend. After the Polar Vortex winter, I just couldn't take the bone chilling cold and 2 week summers anymore. Not to mention getting Big Snowstorms there are as common as the Lions winning divisions =-(    I still root from afar as you can see!

[jaster220]

  Indeed my friend. After the Polar Vortex winter, I just couldn't take the bone chilling cold and 2 week summers anymore. Not to mention getting Big Snowstorms there are as common as the Lions winning divisions =-(    I still root from afar as you can see!

 

Some be jelly of your move. Agree on the Big Dog to Lion Champs ratio, lol but 2 wk summer? Motown's the banana belt of the Mitt. Houghton or the Sault? yeah, 2 decent weeks of true warmth. Best of wishes down there. Niko and I will be rocking the storms this winter on your behalf.    

[Thunder98]

The 6 to 10 day temp outlook is insane!

 

[jaster220]

/\  Hello 2013-14