October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

It is 48F under partly cloudy skies. Winds are still gusty at times. Wcf is not an issue for now. Thankfully the winds have subsided somewhat.

[Niko]

On what page was it posted? Thanks ahead of time.

 

I got behind in following that thread and probably read only the first page yet! It’s hard to catch up when I’m that far behind!

Tbh, I have no idea amigo.....   I will try to go back and find it for ya. 

[jaster220]

BAM noting quite a model difference for this weekend..

 

[Niko]

  Indeed my friend. After the Polar Vortex winter, I just couldn't take the bone chilling cold and 2 week summers anymore. Not to mention getting Big Snowstorms there are as common as the Lions winning divisions =-(    I still root from afar as you can see!

I hear ya, yep, that was a rough Winter we had that year. 

 

Good luck down there

[Niko]

/\  Hello 2013-14

It kinda feels like it right

[Niko]

The 6 to 10 day temp outlook is insane!

 

Alaska is baking....

[jaster220]

 Got windy in the Dakotas!

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

 Got windy in the Dakotas!

 

20191022 SD Windstorm.jpg

Hope they were okay!

[Niko]

Lakeshore Flood Warning

Coastal Hazard MessageNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI1027 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019MIZ063-070-231030-/O.EXT.KDTX.LS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-191023T2000Z/St. Clair-Macomb-1027 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...* Lake Shore Flooding...Southwest wind gusts near 30 mph continue  tonight and especially again by late morning Wednesday into  Wednesday afternoon. The strong wind and high waves cause water  level to remain enhanced along the north shore of Lake St Clair,  especially through Anchor Bay.* Impacts...Shoreline erosion, damage to docks, and additional  flooding along the shore can be expected.

My in-laws live there and they told me that there were some damage on the dock.

[jaster220]

Lakeshore Flood Warning

Coastal Hazard MessageNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI1027 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019MIZ063-070-231030-/O.EXT.KDTX.LS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-191023T2000Z/St. Clair-Macomb-1027 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...* Lake Shore Flooding...Southwest wind gusts near 30 mph continue  tonight and especially again by late morning Wednesday into  Wednesday afternoon. The strong wind and high waves cause water  level to remain enhanced along the north shore of Lake St Clair,  especially through Anchor Bay.* Impacts...Shoreline erosion, damage to docks, and additional  flooding along the shore can be expected.

My in-laws live there and they told me that there were some damage on the dock.

 

 

This storm will still be a 990mb tomorrow morning. Getting occasional rain here in Marshall as the winds go more westerly. Will be an amazing 40+ hours under the influence of this cyclone. Again, if this repeated during winter, WMI would be digging out for days. 

 

Meanwhile, lest we should get "bored", the GEM and Euro want to sneak a system coming up from the Gulf in here over the weekend..incredibly active if it were to happen. A Detroit guy at Amwx commented that this winter might put 2013-14 "to shame". That's a mouthful for anyone in SMI.

 

[Niko]

This storm will still be a 990mb tomorrow morning. Getting occasional rain here in Marshall as the winds go more westerly. Will be an amazing 40+ hours under the influence of this cyclone. Again, if this repeated during winter, WMI would be digging out for days. 

 

Meanwhile, lest we should get "bored", the GEM and Euro want to sneak a system coming up from the Gulf in here over the weekend..incredibly active if it were to happen. A Detroit guy at Amwx commented that this winter might put 2013-14 "to shame". That's a mouthful for anyone in SMI.

 

CMC_mslp_hght_anoms_us_fh90-120.gif

That would be incredible. I have a strong feeling that this Winter will be memorable.

 

Man, that system looks sweet coming outta the gulf.

[Niko]

Jaster- hows this for ya.....

 

2/18/14

 

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/m/MichiganSnowLvr/3932-800.jpg

[gabel23]

Halloween '91 repeat lol

The crazy part about that 1991 storm was the fact that Mount Pinatubo erupted and might have played a role in the weather pattern at that time. I’m excited to see how this upcoming winter will compare if the long range models have any merit!

[Tom]

First time this season I have "Snow" in the forecast for early next week....

 

 

 

 

 

Gettin' prepared for a LONG stretch of sub normal temps as the pattern has flip hard since the beginning of this month as the new LRC began.  What an incredible feat, esp the trends in the models and the potential "hyper" active central CONUS over the next 1-2 weeks!  Lovin' it.  #CutterSeason

 

[Tom]

IMO, it's not a question that Low Solar is having a big impact this year with blocking in the high latitudes and this year may end up being one of the lowest Solar Minimum's in 100's of years.  This year, sunspots have been rare, in fact, we are ahead of the 2008-2010 era...could we push 270 days or more this year????

 

 

 

Edit: During the Severe Wx Outbreak last Sunday, nature put on a show down in OK where it's dubbed "Sprite Alley"...

 

 

 

 

"These were some of the largest spanning multi-events I have personally seen, with sometimes five or six sprites sequentially firing along the line of the storm for what must have been more than one hundred miles," says Smith. "It was a very strong and fast moving cold front with strong winds, large hail, tornadoes--perfect conditions for sprites."

 

 

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 20 days
2019 total: 219 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)

[Tom]

I can't help but express my excitement of how this pattern is evolving and trending in the model world.  If the models are right, we may be on the verge of yet another Historic period of cold and snow to finish off the month.  Just incredible.  By by looking at the 500mb pattern across N. A. one will quickly notice an anchor trough is forecast for our entire Sub Forum keeping the majority of the cold and storminess smack dab across our Sub. 

 

As the saying goes, "A Thing of Beauty is a Joy Forever"....

 

 

 

 

As I analyze this pattern, I'll be honest with ya'll, this is a pattern that will have an opportunity to surpass last year's pattern in terms of persistent cold, storm track/intensity and more importantly, significantly more High Blocking in all the right places.  The lack of a strong SER is going to be, in my opinion, one of the more important pieces to this puzzle as we move along. 

 

Let's dive in....

 

Last night's 00z Euro continues to show a fascinating pattern and has been the best model handing the system that will dig into the deep South later this week/weekend.  This system will eventually eject N/NE towards the Lower GL's and deliver abundant moisture.  I know our friends down south love this storm track as well as our eastern Sub. 

 

Then, we will likely focus our attn to the Halloween system that I've been predicting by using the BSR.  The Euro still wants to lay down a Historic snowstorm across the Plains/MW/GL's (1-2 Feet) for parts of NE/IA/WI.  Incredible to see the model showing the consistency run to run.  Let's see if it holds over the next few days.

[Clinton]

Tom, looks like a full blown model war to close out the month.  Great job using the BSR to predict the Halloween storm and it sure looks like it will verify as the Canadian has joined the Euro.  Those who get the snow will have it stay around for awhile, very exciting for this time of year!

[Tom]

Tom, looks like a full blown model war to close out the month.  Great job using the BSR to predict the Halloween storm and it sure looks like it will verify as the Canadian has joined the Euro.  Those who get the snow will have it stay around for awhile, very exciting for this time of year!

I'm stoked where the pattern is heading and I'm sure you are also.  This is an LRC pattern that can deliver a "Legendary" winter for our Sub.  I wasn't exaggerating when I said this in a previous post.  My gut feeling may be on the right track.  I hope I'm right about this!

[Clinton]

I'm stoked where the pattern is heading and I'm sure you are also.  This is an LRC pattern that can deliver a "Legendary" winter for our Sub.  I wasn't exaggerating when I said this in a previous post.  My gut feeling may be on the right track.  I hope I'm right about this!

My early impressions of this years LRC that we have seen so far is that there are a few less systems overall but more in the way of big systems that will produce big snows and MUCH more colder air and blocking.  Can't wait to see what Nov has to offer!

[Stormy]

Tbh, I have no idea amigo.....   I will try to go back and find it for ya.

 

Thanks for the offer, but don’t bother if you don’t remember! You just made me curious,but that’s ok! Lol

[james1976]

While the main focus has been on the bigger wound up systems, there have also been a couple clipper-like systems. One of which will swing through today. DMX is lowering highs and with CAA kicking in this afternoon there could be snow mixing in across N IA. Will this be the 3rd time I've seen flakes already this season?

 

Love seeing the Euro holding onto the big storm idea for next week!

[jaster220]

While the main focus has been on the bigger wound up systems, there have also been a couple clipper-like systems. One of which will swing through today. DMX is lowering highs and with CAA kicking in this afternoon there could be snow mixing in across N IA. Will this be the 3rd time I've seen flakes already this season?

 

Love seeing the Euro holding onto the big storm idea for next week!

 

Glad you pointed this out. And they seem to scoot in right on the heels of the departing wound-up cyclones. Kinda like a sucker-punch while you're still down, lol. Should be an interesting feature for the winter. I love frequent snow-globe type winters like I remember with 13-14 and way back to 81-82. 

 

Meanwhile, bye-bye lakeshore if anything like this verifies..

 

[westMJim]

Good morning. The sun is coming up and at this time here at my house the sky is partly cloudy and the temperature here is at 43. I had 0.18” of rain here up to 8 am. The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 53/45. For today the average H/L is 58/40. The record high is 83 set in 1963 and the record low is 19 set in 1969. Last year the H/L was 54/37.

[james1976]

The sky cleared just long enough to get me down to 30° and now as the sun rises the stratus from the approaching clipper system is moving in. Definite winter vibes!

[Andie]

We have a nice front coming in tomorrow mid day that will deliver some heavy rain. No violent weather this time. Rain will linger into Friday. Really looking forward to this.

Temps will be in the high 60's and 70's. Lows in the upper 40's.

So a nice cool down about on time for us.

 

 

[Niko]

First time this season I have "Snow" in the forecast for early next week....

 

 

 

 

 

Gettin' prepared for a LONG stretch of sub normal temps as the pattern has flip hard since the beginning of this month as the new LRC began.  What an incredible feat, esp the trends in the models and the potential "hyper" active central CONUS over the next 1-2 weeks!  Lovin' it.  #CutterSeason

 

Highs in the 30s next week for ya....dang, this looks like a real cold airmass coming, especially for October standards.

[Niko]

Currently at 44F under deep blue skies. Winds are still a little gusty, but will diminish as the day wears on.

[bud2380]

Euro continues to show a huge snowmaker next week.  Shifted further south overnight.

 

[bud2380]

Canadian very much in line with the Euro.  GFS is the only one out to lunch. 

 

[Niko]

Thanks for the offer, but don’t bother if you don’t remember! You just made me curious,but that’s ok! Lol

Here ya go bud...enjoy!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lBszt0Egvk&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=3&t=0s

[james1976]

Thanks for the maps, Bud. I'm right in the path 8-9 days out. What could go wrong? Lol

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS North Platte Nebraska Twitter Page says much below normal temps and above average precip. in the 6-10 day.

https://twitter.com/NWSNorthPlatte/status/1187002994358751238?s=20

[OKwx2k4]

Feb 2011 was a wild month which included the largest snowstorm in history for me. If I remember right we had 40 inches of snow that month including a 26 in blizzard.

It's pretty crazy that I had that 12-31-10 pattern etched in to my head. Lol. I guess a New Year's tornado outbreak will d ok that to you. Lol.

 

It's the same exact pattern from 2010-11 almost to a T.

[Niko]

Its a blustery day outside w temps holding in the upper 40s. Leaves are starting to fall off trees. I even saw some trees that are bare.

[Clinton]

It's pretty crazy that I had that 12-31-10 pattern etched in to my head. Lol. I guess a New Year's tornado outbreak will d ok that to you. Lol.

 

It's the same exact pattern from 2010-11 almost to a T.

If that's the case I may need a snowblower lol.

[CentralNebWeather]

If that's the case I may need a snowblower lol.

I'm with you.  Had my snowblower for about 10 years and last year took it's toll.  Might be looking to trade in the next few days.

[Tom]

/\      forgot about that one. It is a good watch btw

This one is going to be an interesting wave to follow...should be a good wintry storm in future cycles down in the south for our TX/OK members and places around our region...

[jaster220]

This one is going to be an interesting wave to follow...should be a good wintry storm in future cycles down in the south for our TX/OK members and places around our region...

 

Love the look of that baby! She digs very nicely.

 

GRR..

 

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Tuesday)

Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

 

Fair wx will briefly return for most of the day today but it will

remain breezy with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with some

higher gusts particularly near the Lake MI shoreline. A sfc trof

and upper level system will combine to bring some rain showers

late this afternoon and tonight.

 

The wx pattern will finally become more tranquil as a broad sfc

ridge takes hold of our wx pattern Thursday through Friday into

Saturday. This will result in partly cloudy skies and seasonable

temps for this time of year.

 

Clouds will be on the increase Saturday out ahead of a southern

stream system that will move ne from the southern CONUS. This

system will bring some showers into our fcst area late Saturday

into Sunday. An overall medium range guidance consensus suggests

that the most significant rainfall will stay se of our fcst area.

Nevertheless some steadier rain showers could arrive by Saturday

night.

 

Longer range computer model guidance shows potential for a cold

and very unsettled wx pattern to develop toward the very end of

the month as a high amplitude upper trough will amplify over the

Great Lakes region. In fact 00Z GFS ensembles indicate the high

temp at KGRR may struggle to reach the 40 degree mark by the

30th/31st and the deterministic max/min numbers are not

surprisingly even colder then the ensemble mean temps.

[jaster220]

NWS North Platte Nebraska Twitter Page says much below normal temps and above average precip. in the 6-10 day.

https://twitter.com/NWSNorthPlatte/status/1187002994358751238?s=20

 

Such an awesome "hook-up" for winter and the new LRC   ;-)  

[snowstorm83]

GFS still like "lol what storm?" It'll be interesting to see who wins out.