October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

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Bring it lets get this season started right!

[Grizzcoat]

Is it OK to get excited for the GFS at HR 216 or so in mid OCT?   Smacks IA with advisory level snows.

Not excited yet, but will be if its still there in 4-5 days or so.. Something tells me it will be a MN event...

[jaster220]

@ Grizz

 

Get excited at your own risk. Seemed like the storm Euro flashed for mid-week would happen, then nada..

[jaster220]

Having said that, I feel somebody in this sub scores during the end of month arctic wave. Start and end of season systems often tell the story of who got/gets the jack-zone for the winter. Not always, but often. This winter is looking to set-up with a larger than normal jack-zone tho, so heck it could be any one of us on here really. 

[OKwx2k4]

00z GFS looking more realistic on the south end this time around. Like grizzcoat said, if still there in a few days, I'd give it some credit.

 

These are still some incredible runs for October. I hope you guys up north get to see flakes fly in a few days! That would be too cool.

[Tom]

00z GFS looking more realistic on the south end this time around. Like grizzcoat said, if still there in a few days, I'd give it some credit.

 

These are still some incredible runs for October. I hope you guys up north get to see flakes fly in a few days! That would be too cool.

Ya, no joke, these are some really unusual runs off the GFS that have been coming in consistently.  It's like Winter wants to arrive not 1 month early, but 2 months early???  Pretty wild. The interesting thing about how the pattern is evolving is it sorta reminds me of last year how the cold came down out of the southwest prairies of Canada into the Upper MW/Plains states, but the Big difference this year is the lack of a very strong SER.  The cold last year was anchored over the Upper MW but this year it is penetrating south and bleeding east because of the strong high lat blocking in the right places IMHO.  

 

Last years' October temp departure...

 

 

 

 

Right now we are seeing individual Euro Op runs holding the trough/energy in the west (known bias) to long while the GFS is a little more progressive.  It'll be interesting to see how this new pattern unfolds.  Needless to say, someone will see some snowfall out of this pattern as an early season Arctic Attack is certainly a lock as it stands now.

[Tom]

The storm system that is about to begin forming on the leeward side of the Rockies today/tonight is showing some fascinating characteristics.  First off, it is once again taking a familiar storm track coming out of the N Rockies and into the Plains states, however, this one isn't cutting NW as much as there is a sufficient amount of blocking in place.  More importantly, this storm slows/explodes in strength as it enters the main region where storms have been intensifying and tracking so far this season.  Most of the models have this storm deepening into the upper 980's near MSP with another impressive wind field that'll be felt region wide.  

 

 

@ OkWx is in the Enhanced Risk region...big time boomers look likely down your way today...

 

 

 

 

Nonetheless, I'm impressed that we are seeing another highlight storm system within a weeks time of the last Blizzard that rocked the northern Sub.  Finally, it's a subtle feature, but this system also has a wave of energy rotating around the base of the trough just like the last powerful storm that hit the Upper MW.  I'm seeing some similarities of how storms are evolving this season and getting blocked up, at least the large scale storms that we are experiencing thus far.

 

 

I'd like to finish this post by commenting on a LR prediction of a storm system in and around Halloween that should have yet again another wintry/cold component to this potential system.  Is there a Veteran's Day storm lurking down the pipeline????  This one may be a big winter storm...that's my gut feeling...somewhere across the central Plains/MW....Ol' Man Winter has decided to arrive early and often this year....unprecedented!

[OKwx2k4]

@ OkWx is in the Enhanced Risk region...big time boomers look likely down your way

Definitely want to keep my eyes peeled tonight. These types of setups usually deliver in the tornadic, hail and/or damaging winds category and the fact that it will likely be dark is no small thing.

 

As you said, per the rest of it, this is a large scale setup with effects for about all of us. Exciting times ahead in the next 10-15 days.

 

The good news is that I've said many times, severe outbreaks in autumn are typically harbingers for heavy snow in winter. In 2010 and 2013, our severe outbreaks fell later in the year. I know in 2010 the similar setup to this one didn't occur until December 31, but there were atmospheric tells in October preceding it also. 2013 is a bit harder for me to recall the exactness of it, but had similarities also.

 

Disregarding the "fantasy" events down this way, the table is still set for when it counts later on. Let's enjoy these previews as October blitzes to the end.

[Clinton]

Definitely want to keep my eyes peeled tonight. These types of setups usually deliver in the tornadic, hail and/or damaging winds category and the fact that it will likely be dark is no small thing.

 

As you said, per the rest of it, this is a large scale setup with effects for about all of us. Exciting times ahead in the next 10-15 days.

 

The good news is that I've said many times, severe outbreaks in autumn are typically harbingers for heavy snow in winter. In 2010 and 2013, our severe outbreaks fell later in the year. I know in 2010 the similar setup to this one didn't occur until December 31, but there were atmospheric tells in October preceding it also. 2013 is a bit harder for me to recall the exactness of it, but had similarities also.

 

Disregarding the "fantasy" events down this way, the table is still set for when it counts later on. Let's enjoy these previews as October blitzes to the end.

 

3 km NAM with some biggies tonight, this may end up being our last chance for severe weather this year.

[Niko]

Attm, mostly cloudy w a temp of 46F.

[Niko]

Looks like some rain arriving by tomorrow followed by cooler air, drier conditions (in terms of no rainfall) and then much colder air by Halloween week.

[bud2380]

6z GFS showing a potent snow maker for parts of the sub in the day 9 ish time frame.

[Niko]

Anxious to see the model adjustments after this tropical storm clears out. Models sometime have issues when there is an increase in tropical activity for some reason. Either way, looks like someone in our region is going to get some snow in the next couple of weeks.

True. Once Nestor leaves the picture, models will definitely have an better overall idea of temps and precipitationwise. TS systems tend to stir up the upper winds, which causes models confusion in forecasting future weather.

[Niko]

6z GFS showing a potent snow maker for parts of the sub in the day 9 ish time frame.

End of October is looking stormy and cold for a lot of our sub members. I just hope I get no snow. I prefer my first snows to happen on Thanksgiving week and continue till march.

[Niko]

OKwx2k4- Look out today....severe weather will be bad in your area. As you said, hopefully, this means a harsh Winter for ya.

[jaster220]

OKwx2k4- Look out today....severe weather will be bad in your area. As you said, hopefully, this means a harsh Winter for ya.

 

OKwx2k4 weather..  

 

[Niko]

OKwx2k4 weather..  

 

2014 TORS..PNG

[jaster220]

Prolly just a phantosy run based on that model's eagerness to over-phase systems, but woah at Lwr Lakes bombing flashed on GFS. Could be a great sign going forward. 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Prolly just a phantosy run based on that model's eagerness to over-phase systems, but woah at Lwr Lakes bombing flashed on GFS. Could be a great sign going forward. 

 

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Tbh, a little more due ENE movement and that would be perfect. Great sign though!

[Tom]

Prolly just a phantosy run based on that model's eagerness to over-phase systems, but woah at Lwr Lakes bombing flashed on GFS. Could be a great sign going forward. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh276-306.gif

I've got this feeling there will be plenty energized systems this season...you can just feel the atmosphere is primed up! 

[St Paul Storm]

A perfect morning for a bonfire and wood splitting. Happy Sunday to everyone.

[Tom]

A perfect morning for a bonfire and wood splitting. Happy Sunday to everyone.

 

Your backyard has the perfect set up...my kind of yard that has a gorgeous back drop of the lake, trees, colorful landscape, fire pit...and crystal clear blue skies!

[Hawkeye]

And now the GFS is backing off the cold blast at the end of the month, following the Euro.  Models are now trying to split the energy and hold a piece over the west.

[OKwx2k4]

Hawkeye beat me to it. 12z up to the shenanigans I was talking about. Complete with a moisture glitch at 228ish hours or so. We'll wait for ensembles on this round.

 

Edit: and no, I never did believe it would snow down here before Halloween. That's not what I'm looking for and still don't want it to.

[OKwx2k4]

RH and DP rising as we go today. 62 and 58 respectively. Just adding fuel to the severe weather fire. Lol.

[westMJim]

Very nice October day today the official temperature at GRR is now at 65 and it is now 67 here with full sunshine.

I recorded 0.07" of rain over night. The H/L yesterday was 61/38. For today the average H/L is 59/41. The record high is  83 set in 1953 and the record low is 22 set in 1974. Last year the H/L was 54/37.

[Niko]

Attm, gorgeous, sunny day w temps in the mid 60s. Spectacular day!

[Andie]

Well, I’ll enjoy the thunderstorms tonight. Windy currently. 88*.

Front will drop us to a 74* high tomorrow. Lovin’ it!

[Andie]

Currently 80* and rain. Not a wide set of storms but still a nice couple of cells that are going over. More in the forecast, so it's a nice beginning.

The high tomorrow will be 74* so that will be a nice change.

[Niko]

Its a crystal clear evening w temps at 45F. Splendid.

[OKwx2k4]

Lol. Anyone reckon there's any severe weather out there?

Looks more like geometry than a map.

[OKwx2k4]

As I write, there's a tornado outbreak starting as well.

[jaster220]

As I write, there's a tornado outbreak starting as well.

 

Was a TOR OTG at the airport in Dallas a bit ago. Not sure about size/strength?

[jaster220]

20/18z GFS takes this new Plains system down to 985mb in S MN. That's impressive for no cold air connection. love the trends so far..

[jaster220]

2nd one of these in (4) days! Talk 'bout active.

 

 

Today was the nicest "Indian summer" day I can remember since maybe Oct '07

 

And now, immediately we return to stormy autumn wx. Fantastic pattern if you ask me. 

[Niko]

2nd one of these in (4) days! Talk 'bout active.

 

20191020 GRR Gales Graphic.png

 

Today was the nicest "Indian summer" day I can remember since maybe Oct '07

 

And now, immediately we return to stormy autumn wx. Fantastic pattern if you ask me. 

Could not agree more. It was beautiful outside. Indian Summer 100%.

[Niko]

Just saw my extended forecast and boy o boy. It gets quite cold by months end. Looks like that Greenland block will be taking shape.

[jaster220]

20/18z GFS takes this new Plains system down to 985mb in S MN. That's impressive for no cold air connection. love the trends so far..

 

Can't help but notice that despite the SLP being centered well west in MN, the effects are covering the Mitt like a big circular spiral. I mentioned in my post about the sky conditions I photographed yesterday that they indicated a good scenario. Just imagine this a bit east during winter. Watch out! if that happens like it did back in Feb of '85. 24+ inches of LES in Battle Creek per the data. 

 

[Niko]

Can't help but notice that despite the SLP being centered well west in MN, the effects are covering the Mitt like a big circular spiral. I mentioned in my post about the sky conditions I photographed yesterday that they indicated a good scenario. Just imagine this a bit east during winter. Watch out! if that happens like it did back in Feb of '85. 24+ inches of LES in Battle Creek per the data. 

 

20191020-18z gfs_mslpa_us_7.png

[Niko]

A lot of wind coming w this LP area to my west for Monday and some moderate rainfall as well. I could receive wind gusts to 30+mph. Heaviest of the rain should be tomorrow nite b4 ending very late. Winds continue till at least Wednesday. A wind maker for sure.