December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z EPS at day 8... 

 

 

Okay, so that is bad...

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, my wife did about five years in the ER so she’s cool as a cucumber when it comes to just about anything health related. Unless it’s happening to me I’m a basket case. She always gives me s**t when one of the kids gets sick and I go nuclear over it. She and another vacationing nurse did CPR on a guy at Disneyland back in 2009. He didn’t make it. She’s a failure.

 

That sucks... no idea how they can handle people dying.    I can't handle anything like that.   Thankfully there are people like that in the world.

[Gradient Keeper]

Clown range, but better than I was expecting

 

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Yeah. That's not great and compared to the previous 3-4 runs a step backwards, but it's a lot better than I expected. This isn't over yet folks!

[Jesse]

Don’t worry about climate change guys, worry endlessly about something that you can actually have some sort of impact on instead...like getting sunny weekends in North Bend.

 

[TT-SEA]

Day 10:

 

[MossMan]

Clown range, but better than I was expecting

 

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I’m thinking we just need to get through this “false start” and things will look much more favorable after the 10th.

[Phil]

FWIW, the Canadian ensembles tend to bias towards the Indo-Pacific type convection and often default to a stable Niña/SE-ridge look in the clown range as a result.

 

The EPS is less robust with said bias when the MJO is not initialized from the IO domain, but also deals with the MC barrier effect in the mean(s) to some extent.

 

The GEFS might have an inverted bias especially during boreal summer/autumn, and tend to the WHEM/W-IO style tropical forcing.

[Deweydog]

That sucks... no idea how they can handle people dying. I can't handle anything like that. Thankfully there are people like that in the world.

Then again if there’s a spider in the house she loses her mind...

[Phil]

I don't make stuff up. Never have, never will. And I'm cursed with a very good memory.

Your memory isn’t as good as mine.

 

I know exactly what I said. Just stop.

[TT-SEA]

Don’t worry about climate change guys, worry about something that you can actually have some sort of impact on...like getting sunny weekends in North Bend.

 

 

That is all about planning.   Nature is going to do what its going to do.   But we can be mobile when necessary. 

 

I just appreciate the hell out of any sunny weekend nature throws my way during my short stay on this planet.  

[Weiner Warrior]

Just checked my Accuweather app. Says snow mixed with rain in the morning of January 23rd in Seattle. At least something to be excited about!

[Gradient Keeper]

That is all about planning.   Nature is going to do what its going to do.   But we can be mobile when necessary. 

 

I just appreciate the hell out of any sunny weekend nature throws my way during my short stay on this planet.  

No one lives forever. No one. But with advances in modern science, and my high level of income, I mean, it's not crazy to think I can't live to be 245, maybe 300.

[TT-SEA]

Day 13:

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS Day 12+ improves. Backdoor chilly air. YAY!

[Gradient Keeper]

Tilt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully the rug can be pulled quicker this next time.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hopefully the rug can be pulled quicker this next time.

What if I don't own a rug? .... Do I throw blankets in a fit or rage, or perhaps rip my curtains off the wall?

[Deweydog]

We’re quickly running out of people who have a memory of January 1950.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That sucks... no idea how they can handle people dying.    I can't handle anything like that.   Thankfully there are people like that in the world.

 

First person I saw die was about 11 years ago now, a couple months after December 08'. I had been caregiving for a guy with end stage metastasized lung cancer for a few months. When he went it was so peaceful and and end to unimaginable suffering. He was on hospice so there was no life saving effort or anything like that, but in that setting, death is not really frightening at all..  

[TT-SEA]

EPS Day 12+ improves. Backdoor chilly air. YAY!

 

Trend is not our friend though...

 

Day 9-14 mean on the 00Z EPS last night:

 

 

And on the new 00Z run:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Not great, but not awful. I guess. 500mb pattern much like the Canadian is not far off from being significantly better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We’re quickly running out of people who have a memory of January 1950.

 

When I worked up the Mt. Angel Abbey about 15 years ago there was a Russian Orthodox monk who lived on the hill apart from the Benedictine community. He had been up there since 1948. I asked him how epic January 1950 was and he just stared at me like I was crazy...But I wasn't the one who had been living in a relic museum for 56 years...

 

I will never get a chance to re-approach that question, he is gone now...

[Deweydog]

When I worked up the Mt. Angel Abbey about 15 years ago there was a Russian Orthodox monk who lived on the hill apart from the Benedictine community. He had been up there since 1948. I asked him how epic January 1950 was and he just stared at me like I was crazy...But I wasn't the one who had been living in a relic museum for 56 years...

 

I will never get a chance to re-approach that question, he is gone now...

My dad was born in ‘46. No good.

 

He was a linesman in Seattle in January 1969. Said it was snowy.

[TT-SEA]

Cold signal in the long range is gradually getting weaker on the EPS.

 

And the EPS completely caved to the GFS in the mid range... so now I am even more skeptical about the long range stuff.

[BLI snowman]

We’re quickly running out of people who have a memory of January 1950.

 

I got a little wave of sadness when I realized that the 100 year anniversary of December 1919 had passed.

 

Now one less awesome event in the last century 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My dad was born in ‘46. No good.

 

He was a linesman in Seattle in January 1969. Said it was snowy.

 

My Dad is sort of a weenie too, born in 1952, but he grew up in Eastern Kentucky on the Ohio River. So he talks about big events back there growing up, but they  kind of mean nothing to me. 

[Deweydog]

Trend is not our friend though...

 

Day 9-14 mean on the 00Z EPS last night:

 

 

And on the new 00Z run:

 

Nice try!

 

The first one is the 12z!

[TT-SEA]

My dad was born in ‘46. No good.

 

He was a linesman in Seattle in January 1969. Said it was snowy.

 

 

My parents say that every winter featured snow to the rooftops in northern Wisconsin back in the 1940s and 50s.    I went through the historical data and found some winters that were not very snowy... they said I was wrong.    

[TT-SEA]

Nice try!

 

The first one is the 12z!

 

My mistake.

 

Even worse then.   The 00Z run last night was colder than the 12Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My parents say that every winter featured snow to the rooftops in northern Wisconsin back in the 1940s and 50s.    I went through the historical data and found some winters that were not very snowy... they said I was wrong.    

 

My wife is like that. She acts like it was pretty normal to go through the winter with 2-3' of snow on the ground in Klamath Falls. The 90s were definitely not that snowy there. 

[TT-SEA]

My wife is like that. She acts like it was pretty normal to go through the winter with 2-3' of snow on the ground in Klamath Falls. The 90s were definitely not that snowy there. 

 

 

You are wrong.   She was there.  

[Deweydog]

Speaking of 1968-69, right now that winter was....... active.

[Phil]

First person I saw die was about 11 years ago now, a couple months after December 08'. I had been caregiving for a guy with end stage metastasized lung cancer for a few months. When he went it was so peaceful and and end to unimaginable suffering. He was on hospice so there was no life saving effort or anything like that, but in that setting, death is not really frightening at all..

Again with this cancer stuff. Been dominating my emotions today.

 

One of my sister’s close friends died just this morning from stomach cancer. He was only 23 or 24 and it came as a huge shock since he was in the hospital for just a week and was working out a treatment plan with the doctors when he passed. She has to cut her Miami trip short now to attend his funeral. I just saw him a few months ago and he was just fine. Must have hit very fast.

 

Then a few hours after I read that news I saw John Lewis was diagnosed with stage-4 pancreatic cancer. This all coming after my grandmother needed an ER trip the day before I left town.

 

Like what the hell. I feel like I’m surrounded by death and mortality.

[Deweydog]

No matter what the EPS says, we are ALL going to die. Some much sooner than others.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

No matter what the EPS says, we are ALL going to die. Some much sooner than others.

[Deweydog]

Some will die between now and the next top tier Arctic outbreak.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Again with this cancer stuff. Been dominating my emotions today.

 

One of my sister’s close friends died just this morning from stomach cancer. He was only 23 or 24 and it came as a huge shock since he was in the hospital for just a week and was working out a treatment plan with the doctors when he passed. She has to cut her Miami trip short now to attend his funeral. I just saw him a few months ago and he was just fine. Must have hit very fast.

 

Then a few hours after I read that news I saw John Lewis was diagnosed with stage-4 pancreatic cancer. This all coming after my grandmother needed an ER trip the day before I left town.

 

Like what the hell. I feel like I’m surrounded by death and mortality.

 

Sorry about that. Life is full of heavy moments. My parents were both the youngest children in their families and had kids a little later, so just in the family I've had to deal with a lot of loss over the years. I think about it a lot. We never know what the road holds for us, I am 35, now I realize nothing is promised. I could live to be 90-100 like some of my family members, or be cut down much sooner, like my paternal grandfather (48) or my mom (55). You just never know. My grandmother is 95 and has outlived both her daughters. My uncle who has battled obesity and diabetes his entire life has outlived his younger sisters and his wife. 

[ShawniganLake]

Speaking of 1968-69, right now that winter was....... active.

Abbotsford was 5F / -4F with windchills approaching -30F on Dec 29/1968. Fairly chilly.

[Deweydog]

Abbotsford was 5F / -4F with windchills approaching -30F on Dec 29/1968. Fairly chilly.

The GFS a couple days ago said that is WEAK SAUCE.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Abbotsford was 5F / -4F with windchills approaching -30F on Dec 29/1968. Fairly chilly.

 

Fairbanks, AK would close that month with a -47/-53 day.