December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Just giving you some honest advice. It doesn't add a lot to a discussion to make the same basic point over and over about us not seeing major windstorms recently. You're free to root for what you like, but I would encourage you to do a little research or break a little new ground rather than making the same despairing posts repeatedly.

I get it, but honestly I think a stronger case could be made for TWL needing this talk.

[Gradient Keeper]

Big downturn in models due to lack of MJO signal? or? Not my field of expertise.

[Phil]

The cold that Alaska has been having over these last couple of weeks reminds me a lot of the end of January 1989. We all know what happened about 10 days after that.

 

Very promising to have all that cold air on this side of the globe. I really like our chances for next month.

Cold in Alaska doesn’t affect the PNW much without a SSW or at least a moderate stratwarm.

 

Huge SSW in late Jan 1989.

Another big league SSW in Dec 1998.

Moderate stratwarm in Jan 2012 (quick hitter).

 

Hard to get AK vortex cold to dislodge otherwise.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold in Alaska doesn’t affect the PNW much without a SSW or at least a moderate stratwarm.

 

Huge SSW in late Jan 1989.

Another big league SSW in Dec 1998.

Moderate stratwarm in Jan 2012 (quick hitter).

 

Hard to get AK vortex cold to dislodge otherwise.

 

I feel like there was a lot of cold in the late 90s up in Alaska that amounted to nothing for us down here...

[Jesse]

Nice. I got a copy myself some years ago when it was fairly new, with a 1964 flood book to pair with it (snow pic on page 8!)

 

IMG_20191229_153635.1.jpg

That’s awesome. Would love to get my hands on the 1964 book.

[TT-SEA]

I have more of a problem with it being above average, whatever that is, for the location I'm in. I would honestly feel more comfortable in 90* humidity like I do in Florida vs here because it's normal. I hate the thought of this beautiful planet burning up. I love the scenery in the PNW so much.

 

By definition... its above normal half the time.    Best get used to it happening fairly often.   And our definition of "normal" is based on a very brief time scale anyways.   The Earth adapts... life adapts.

 

The planet is not burning up.   It routinely goes through much more dramatic swings... and has done so for billions of years and will do so for billions of years into the future.   Just one asteroid of decent size would send a wave of hot air around the globe and kill most of the trees in hours... and then we would descend into nuclear winter.   That has happened before and will happen again.     

 

You are here for a brief second in time and the planet will go through endless hot and cold cycles long after you are gone.   And then end up a steamy cauldron like Venus.   The universe is inherently a harsh and unforgiving place.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 ugh

 

[Deweydog]

My #1 pet peeve is having words put in my mouth.

 

I wouldn’t get this upset typically but Flatiron does this all the time. Claiming I said things that I didn’t say, rewriting history, moving goalposts, etc. It’s so d**n annoying.

I think you need to acknowledge you might contribute quite a bit to this issue. You tend to throw a lot of spaghetti at the wall regarding timing, possible this and that based on (insert big words and acronyms) and sometimes it comes off as a convoluted mess of outcomes. Your anger makes it seem like you have no dog in the fight and are just a completely innocent victim.

 

12z Euro in eleven and a half hours!

[Cloud]

GFS may end up leading the way here ahead of the ensembles and Euro Op. 

[Jesse]

I have more of a problem with it being above average, whatever that is, for the location I'm in. I would honestly feel more comfortable in 90* humidity like I do in Florida vs here because it's normal. I hate the thought of this beautiful planet burning up. I love the scenery in the PNW so much.

Youz about to trigger some boomers.

[Winterdog]

Day 4 .... nope

 

Nearly identical to the GFS at 96 hrs

[Requiem]

Interesting how the GFS seems to be leading the way. I do think it was the same for last February down here in PDX as well. We think of EURO as the king, but it might be time to see whether the GFS can really hold its own on a more consistent basis.

[Gradient Keeper]

One glimmer of hope.... Canadian ensembles Day 11

 

[Deweydog]

Maybe if October hadn’t been so cold this might have played out differently...

[TT-SEA]

We were PROMISED this would never happen.   

 

 

 

 

Here was the 00Z ECMWF last night at the same time:

 

 

 

Score one for the GFS.

[Phil]

I seem to remember you telling people to watch for things to turn blocky and cold around the holidays. But it’s possible that you were referring to your thoughts for other parts of the country because sometimes you just seem to throw all your ideas in the PNW thread and it gets confusing.

I did predict a flip to cold/blocky in late December and was too fast, but I wasn’t referring to the West specifically. The timing fail was due to a fluky TPV location..got stuck in no man’s land over the Beaufort..no way to see that in advance (I would bust all over again if this situation were to unfold again in the future).

 

I did mention a low-likelyhood backdoor event window brief during the transition, but that wasn’t a *prediction*. It was more of a subtext/possibility..I didn’t think it would actually happen.

[Jesse]

I think you need to acknowledge you might contribute quite a bit to this issue. You tend to throw a lot of spaghetti at the wall regarding timing, possible this and that based on (insert big words and acronyms) and sometimes it comes off as a convoluted mess of outcomes. Your anger makes it seem like you have no dog in the fight and are just a completely innocent victim.

 

12z Euro in eleven and a half hours!

Yeah, only Tim gets that pass.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, only Tim gets that pass.

Simmer down.

 

Tim’s a d*uche. He knows I know that.

[TT-SEA]

Simmer down.

 

Tim’s a d*uche. He knows I know that.

 

 

Applies to most of us it seems.  

 

But someone is very worried about what you post, Matt!   

[BLI snowman]

I get it, but honestly I think a stronger case could be made for TWL needing this talk.

 

BSF and zero white Christmases there since 1990 both directly contributed to the February 25 Eugene snowstorm.

[Deweydog]

One glimmer of hope.... Canadian ensembles Day 11

 

Looks pretty similar to the GFS. De-amplified, generally -PNA pattern.

[TacomaWaWx]

Jesus h Christ is this place even a weather forum anymore?

[MossMan]

One glimmer of hope.... Canadian ensembles Day 11

 

That looks nice!

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles on the cusp of arctic wonderland. 904 times better than the GFS even if it were blindfolded.

[Deweydog]

 

Applies to most of us it seems.

Except for Jesse. He’s just desperately trying to keep us all honest with TOUGH love.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Deweydog]

Canadian ensembles on the cusp of arctic wonderland. 904 times better than the GFS even if it were blindfolded.

Wtf?

[Winterdog]

Canadian ensembles on the cusp of arctic wonderland. 904 times better than the GFS even if it were blindfolded.

But it’s the GEM

[Gradient Keeper]

Jesus h Christ is this place even a weather forum anymore?

I'm trying to maintain that. A lot of people get real testy when the models take a .

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF completely caved.   I am happy Jim is going to win the lottery... but I am worried about the impending lightning strike.

[Jesse]

Except for Jesse. He’s just desperately trying to keep us all honest with TOUGH love.

At least SOMEONE understands.

[BLI snowman]

I feel like there was a lot of cold in the late 90s up in Alaska that amounted to nothing for us down here...

 

I remember the February 1999 mega-cold up there having some hype. It mostly washed out and gave us some chilly SW flow snow showers around the 9th-10th.

[Gradient Keeper]

But it’s the GEM

Yep true. If it were just a nad more amplified we would score nicely. 500mb pattern is close to sexy.

[Phil]

I think you need to acknowledge you might contribute quite a bit to this issue. You tend to throw a lot of spaghetti at the wall regarding timing, possible this and that based on (insert big words and acronyms) and sometimes it comes off as a convoluted mess of outcomes. Your anger makes it seem like you have no dog in the fight and are just a completely innocent victim.

 

12z Euro in eleven and a half hours!

I’m not an innocent damsel in distress by any means, but you can’t be too concrete with long range stuff. There are a number of “forks in the road” as the system evolves and those aren’t always decipherable to me.

 

We both know Flatty takes advantage of these obscurities and uses them to start s**t, warp reality, move goalposts, and cover his own failings.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jesus h Christ is this place even a weather forum anymore?

 

What were conditions in Tacoma today? We had a very dull 46/36 here in the foothills of the Oregon Cascades. 

[El_Nina]

By definition... its above normal half the time.    Best get used to it happening fairly often.   And our definition of "normal" is based on a very brief time scale anyways.   The Earth adapts... life adapts.

 

The planet is not burning up.   It routinely goes through much more dramatic swings... and has done so for billions of years and will do so for billions of years into the future.   Just one asteroid of decent size would send a wave of hot air around the globe and kill most of the trees in hours... and then we would descend into nuclear winter.   That has happened before and will happen again.     

 

You are here for a brief second in time and the planet will go through endless hot and cold cycles long after you are gone.   And then end up a steamy cauldron like Venus.   The universe is inherently a harsh and unforgiving place.

There used to be 14 billion trees, now there's 7. The carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have increased 140% since 1950( https://www.google.com/amp/s/climate.nasa.gov/evidence.amp). I dont see how theres a single way this isn't accelerating right now during our lifetime. And must I remind you what side of the isle I'm on?

[MossMan]

Canadian ensembles on the cusp of arctic wonderland. 904 times better than the GFS even if it were blindfolded.

Good to hear! Wasn’t there a time where the Canadian led the way?

[Phil]

Yeah, only Tim gets that pass.

I was going to “like” this post but I’ve lost that ability.

[Deweydog]

I’m not an innocent damsel in distress by any means, but you can’t be too concrete with long range stuff. There are a number of “forks in the road” as the system evolves and those aren’t always decipherable to me.

 

We both know Flatty takes advantage of these obscurities and uses them to start s**t, warp reality, move goalposts, and cover his own failings.

Well, let’s be honest. You’ve done some reality warping of your own. At the end of the day you both suck just like the rest of us.

 

One model run at a time, baby.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 EURO I hope you have a barf bag handy. How the hell did we go from nice/good, to THIS?