12/15 - 12/17 Plains/OHV Slider

[Money]

Lol at believing the Nam

[bud2380]

Canadian further north than gfs but heaviest band still in northern MO

[Clinton]

CMC like the Euro with the 2 waves only shares the wealth better.

[jaster220]

Lol at believing the Nam

 

That's so yesteryear

[jaster220]

CMC like the Euro with the 2 waves only shares the wealth better.

 

That's looking pretty steady amigo. I'd say the swath isn't that different between northern solutions and GEM/Euro, just the focus of where the heaviest ends up is certainly different. Not sure we will get any last minute SW to NE "tilt" to the swath like earliest models showed, so now it's more about how strong/moist the wave will be once it's fully sampled. EPS is still looking good in my opinion. Maybe a slight bump north? Thoughts?

[jaster220]

@ Clinton

 

Not sure the GEM shares the wealth more than the EPS. They look very similar in swath width. I think it's just the color schemes. Euro "blues" starts at 2" vs 1" for the GEM.

 

[Clinton]

I kinda like what the CMC/Euro is selling with the 2 waves based on the LRC.  If that 2nd wave is the stronger one (and it should be at least as strong) then look out major snow storm.

[Clinton]

00z GFS mean

[jaster220]

I kinda like what the CMC/Euro is selling with the 2 waves based on the LRC.  If that 2nd wave is the stronger one (and it should be at least as strong) then look out major snow storm.

 

Elsewhere a Met was posting that the energy/shortwave out in the Pacific looks robust. He thought the models were too weak based on that. 

[jaster220]

00z GFS mean

 

Tends to lean south a tad, but really not that far off from the Euro mean and those Op Canadiens you posted. 

[Stormhunter87]

Wpc expanding the snow shield

[Clinton]

Tends to lean south a tad, but really not that far off from the Euro mean and those Op Canadiens you posted. 

Ya not that much different, I'd be happy with anything over 3in,  Now what do we need to do to get this guy to cut your way?

[jaster220]

Wpc expanding the snow shield

 

Link? Curious which map/product you're referring to?

[Clinton]

Elsewhere a Met was posting that the energy/shortwave out in the Pacific looks robust. He thought the models were too weak based on that. 

That was Gary Lezak (Mr LRC) and my local weatherman.  Kinda makes me believe the EURO has this right.

[jaster220]

Ya not that much different, I'd be happy with anything over 3in,  Now what do we need to do to get this guy to cut your way?

 

Other than Op GFS and ICON, all other models put me solidly in the game attm, so it's not so much that I need it to cut more (tho that'd be ok too). If I had a wish, it would be more moisture over my way. Seems to run out of gas a bit versus what it's spitting out back your way.

[Clinton]

Other than Op GFS and ICON, all other models put me solidly in the game attm, so it's not so much that I need it to cut more (tho that'd be ok too). If I had a wish, it would be more moisture over my way. Seems to run out of gas a bit versus what it's spitting out back your way.

That[s that dang +NAO, it is diving back toward neutral I was hoping that the dive would have a positive impact on this storm.  Maybe it will.

[Niko]

During the upcoming weekend hopefully models can have a better handle of this system.

[jaster220]

That[s that dang +NAO, it is diving back toward neutral I was hoping that the dive would have a positive impact on this storm.  Maybe it will.

 

It may. Tom could chime in, but I think there's at least a slight lag time involved between readings and net pattern effects, even if a couple days. Still, better to have it going to neutral instead of rising further. Here in SMI we actually do well with a more or less neutral NAO. If it gets too negative everything pushes SE of us. 

[Niko]

It may. Tom could chime in, but I think there's at least a slight lag time involved between readings and net pattern effects, even if a couple days. Still, better to have it going to neutral instead of rising further. Here in SMI we actually do well with a more or less neutral NAO. If it gets too negative everything pushes SE of us. 

Exactly amigo!

[Hawkeye]

00z UK

 

[Clinton]

It may. Tom could chime in, but I think there's at least a slight lag time involved between readings and net pattern effects, even if a couple days. Still, better to have it going to neutral instead of rising further. Here in SMI we actually do well with a more or less neutral NAO. If it gets too negative everything pushes SE of us. 

That makes since we have had very few major snows down here without the AO and NAO being negative.  That has me real nervous about this one.

[jaster220]

00z UK

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019121400_84_5660_220.png

 

Dang, some 1"+ in parts of MO? Uhmm, can we get some of that up here? 

[Stormhunter87]

Link? Curious which map/product you're referring to?

So this link is kinda hidden. I don't think by design but you have to dig through NOAA to find it. Anywho here you go. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

[Stormhunter87]

00z UK

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019121400_84_5660_220.png

Jack zone for my parents lol. My dad just said go with the Nam I don't want the snow.

[jaster220]

So this link is kinda hidden. I don't think by design but you have to dig through NOAA to find it. Anywho here you go. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

 

Thanks, yeah I've been known to check those out in the past for larger events. 

 

I really like the trajectory of their 4+ risk

 

 

 

They've got Clinton locked-in for at least a solid 2" and he even looks stout for 4"

 

 

 

@ Niko - These only go out to Monday evening, when the storm should still be ongoing over our way. By tomorrow night they should cover us tho..

[Stormhunter87]

@jaster220 I like both of those products alot but it usually has a bias towards the euro. But it is a nice blend.

[Niko]

Thanks, yeah I've been known to check those out in the past for larger events. 

 

I really like the trajectory of their 4+ risk

 

20191214 WPC d3 4+ Probs.gif

 

 

They've got Clinton locked-in for at least a solid 2" and he even looks stout for 4"

 

20191214 WPC 72h 2+ Probs.GIF

 

 

@ Niko - These only go out to Monday evening, when the storm should still be ongoing over our way. By tomorrow night they should cover us tho..

Awesome!

[jaster220]

0z Euro saying "congrats Indy?"  

[Clinton]

Euro looking real good for me still, but it has a nasty looking ice storm down over the MO. Ozarks.

[jaster220]

Op doesn't even get flurries into SMI??     How can the EPS and it's members be so much different? 

[Clinton]

00z Euro goodnight everyone

[bud2380]

6Z NAM finally corrected itself towards the other models as we knew it eventually would. White flag time up here.

[Stormhunter87]

6Z NAM finally corrected itself towards the other models as we knew it eventually would. White flag time up here.

Dam yeah kills the first wave right over Omaha and second wave takes over

[Tom]

Congrats KC/MO and the rest of the S MW members...I think it's a swing and a miss up here for this one...I just don't see us getting much if anything from this one up this way.  Been a long time since the southern members cashed in a decent snowstorm so its about time.

 

Taking a look at the SREF's and they keep on suggesting a 2" event up here but I'm having a hard time believe it based on what I'm seeing and the strength of the system overall.  At 500mb it really doesn't develop as it heads east and gets strung out.  The ridge out ahead of it is weaker than it has shown in previous days.

 

At Toledo, looks like your in the game to score a good hit from this one...

 

00z Euro...

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS looking like the EURO...

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Winter Weather Advisory 2 counties north and 2 counties south of me. That’s hard to do. The sad part is those that receive snow it’s looking like it will melt in the upcoming pattern. Local met says more than likely a brown Christmas around here.

[Tom]

Winter Weather Advisory 2 counties north and 2 counties south of me. That’s hard to do. The sad part is those that receive snow it’s looking like it will melt in the upcoming pattern. Local met says more than likely a brown Christmas around here.

Yup, bad timing for that ridge to build into the central CONUS...the Grinch may be stealing the snow for those who get the snow...

[CentralNebWeather]

18z NAM. Pretty bleak for many.

[snowstorm83]

This thing looks to be on life support for those not in KS/MO. Not sure what the NAM was on yesterday but I want some. 

[GDR]

Climo Loses out! Oh well