April 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, those maps are an utter joke. Not a single cold anomaly forecast anywhere from the Arctic Ocean to Central America for an entire three month period. I'm sure that will verify with flying colors.

 

 

Still tends to anchor the ridge over the Western US for the summer.    That is what I like to see.

 

Its so funny to see you react so strongly... if they show a cold, wet summer over us you would not say a single bad word.   

[Black Hole]

Tim, I sort of think that is the point though, they almost never do show cold and wet!

[TT-SEA]

Tim, I sort of think that is the point though, they almost never do show cold and wet!

 

And really... it was dry for most of the winter up until the second part of February and then March.     There was a only 6-week wet period.      

 

The first part of February was insanely dry.   As of the 10th... I only had .03 here for the month and it was almost half over.    

 

Then of course the jet stream got its act together which was inevitable at that point.

 

Cold is another matter... I think these models tend to miss inversions and in the winter they will show warmer than normal if there is a ridge close.    But that is not usually the case.    And while there was some genuine cold obviously... there was also periods of inversion cold which made the monthly averages significantly colder than the 500mb pattern would indicate.    That is normal for the winter months.    Its hard to be warm and dry in the winter around here.   Its usually warm and wet or cold and dry.   I saw last fall that it might be a generally dry winter based on these models.    I knew warm and dry was very unlikely but  could see that the jet stream would probably not be pounding us all winter.    And that is what happened.

 

Inversions are not a problem in the summer.    So I think the models have a better handle on temperatures... but I am not even really counting on that.   I am just seeing a ridge anchored out west this summer on all the models.   I don't care how Brett colors his maps or even what he thinks it means... just looking at the overall pattern and it seems 2009-ish to me.   

 

Just my thoughts.  

[Jesse]

And really... it was dry for most of the winter up until the second part of February and then March. There was a only 6-week wet period.

 

The first part of February was insanely dry. As of the 10th... I only had .03 here for the month and it was almost half over.

 

Then of course the jet stream got its act together which was inevitable at that point.

 

Cold is another matter... I think these models tend to miss inversions and in the winter they will show warmer than normal if there is a ridge close. But that is not usually the case. And while there was some genuine cold obviously... there was also periods of inversion cold which made the monthly averages significantly colder than the 500mb pattern would indicate. That is normal for the winter months. Its hard to be warm and dry in the winter around here. Its usually warm and wet or cold and dry. I saw last fall that it might be a generally dry winter based on these models. I knew warm and dry was very unlikely but could see that the jet stream would probably not be pounding us all winter. And that is what happened.

 

Inversions are not a problem in the summer. So I think the models have a better handle on temperatures... but I am not even really counting on that. I am just seeing a ridge anchored out west this summer on all the models. I don't care how Brett colors his maps or even what he thinks it means... just looking at the overall pattern and it seems 2009-ish to me.

 

Just my thoughts.

So you're telling me the reason those models had the entire Western Hemisphere above average for last winter is because they can't see inversions?

 

I didn't realize all of the cold in the upper Midwest that those maps mistook for torching was inversion based.

 

Also, the only really ridgy winter month the models might have "missed" the inversions for out here was January. December and February were legitimately troughy for at least the northern tier of the West. Both of the models in question advertised a massive blowtorch for the west (and the entire country for that matter) the entire October-February period.

[TT-SEA]

So you're telling me the reason those models had the entire Western Hemisphere above average for last winter is because they can't see inversions?

 

I didn't realize all of the cold in the upper Midwest that those maps mistook for torching was inversion based.

 

Also, the only really ridgy winter month the models might have "missed" the inversions for out here was January. December and February were legitimately troughy for at least the northern tier of the West. Both of the models in question advertised a massive blowtorch for the west (and the entire country for that matter) the entire October-February period.

Was not talking about the Midwest. It was generally ridgy this winter in the West... hence tbe arctic air in the Midwest and dry weather out here until the middle of February.

[Jesse]

Still tends to anchor the ridge over the Western US for the summer.    That is what I like to see.

 

Its so funny to see you react so strongly... if they show a cold, wet summer over us you would not say a single bad word.   

 

How can you tell? EVERYTHING on that map series is red.

[Timmy Supercell]

If they grew anything in their yard at all... they would immediately stop cheering for frost beginning in April.    Like Jim with windstorms... he used to love it and then it caused a mess in his yard and it affected him directly and now he hates strong wind events.

 

I can tell those people who do not grow anything in their yard.    Those people who are cheering for a killing freeze even in June.  

 

Then how do folks here in K-Falls have yards full of grown plants?

[Phil]

And really... it was dry for most of the winter up until the second part of February and then March. There was a only 6-week wet period.

 

The first part of February was insanely dry. As of the 10th... I only had .03 here for the month and it was almost half over.

 

Then of course the jet stream got its act together which was inevitable at that point.

 

Cold is another matter... I think these models tend to miss inversions and in the winter they will show warmer than normal if there is a ridge close. But that is not usually the case. And while there was some genuine cold obviously... there was also periods of inversion cold which made the monthly averages significantly colder than the 500mb pattern would indicate. That is normal for the winter months. Its hard to be warm and dry in the winter around here. Its usually warm and wet or cold and dry. I saw last fall that it might be a generally dry winter based on these models. I knew warm and dry was very unlikely but could see that the jet stream would probably not be pounding us all winter. And that is what happened.

 

Inversions are not a problem in the summer. So I think the models have a better handle on temperatures... but I am not even really counting on that. I am just seeing a ridge anchored out west this summer on all the models. I don't care how Brett colors his maps or even what he thinks it means... just looking at the overall pattern and it seems 2009-ish to me.

 

Just my thoughts.

I can tell you that missed-inversions are not the reason the ECMWF constantly runs way warm across the globe at the end of its monthly outlook. It rarely predicts cold anomalies anywhere after month 3.

 

I used to work with GCM physics daily. Bogus radiative transfer physics and convective parameterizations are the reason it cannot forecast temperatures, which artificially perturbs the simulated global circulations towards its later months..in error of course..

 

As for the NMME...it was a whopping 1.1K too warm across the globe this winter. It's a piece of s**t..worse than the monthly ECMWF..

[Jesse]

Was not talking about the Midwest. It was generally ridgy this winter in the West... hence tbe arctic air in the Midwest and dry weather out here until the middle of February.

 

The winter forecast that Phil posted above shows northern Minnesota above average for January. With seasonable temps everywhere else and a tiny pocket of cold around western Nebraska. Was this just because it couldn't see the massive "inversion" that hit the entire country with record breaking cold from coast to coast last winter?

[TT-SEA]

I can tell you that missed-inversions are not the reason the ECMWF constantly runs way warm across the globe at the end of its monthly outlook. It rarely predicts cold anomalies anywhere after month 3.

 

I used to work with GCM physics daily. Bogus radiative transfer physics and convective parameterizations are the reason it cannot forecast temperatures, which artificially perturbs the simulated global circulations towards its later months..in error of course..

 

As for the NMME...it was a whopping 1.1K too warm across the globe this winter. It's a piece of s**t..worse than the monthly ECMWF..

OK then... cold everywhere this summer!

[Phil]

Also just FWIW, I have access to the Euro , and Brett Anderson's "interpretations" are always much warmer compared to the data I get..

 

The monthly Euro still runs warm globally, but Brett Anderson always makes it warmer..

[Jesse]

Here are how the anomalies have actually turned out in the United States since October 1. If that monthly EURO and NMME forecast had even come close to panning out, 85% of the country would be bright red.

 

 

Let's not try to paint an awful forecast as a decent one just because its latest release is showing something you want to see, Tim.  Let's be intellectually honest here.

[Phil]

Here is an example of how Brett Anderson "interprets" the Euro too warm, even when it's showing nothing but brutal cold in the short range.

 

This is a map of the data I get..this is a week2 forecast...as cold as physically possible in a long range model:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/HJwRzG.jpg

 

Now here's Brett Anderson's "interpretation" of the same data..notice anything different?

 

Look at Texas and the East Coast..my backyard in particular. A 5 year old could "interpret" the Euro more accurately. It was forecasting a -13 departure here..Anderson doesn't even put blue over me.

 

http://catchmypicture.com/C9u2cf.jpg

 

 

You can only imagine how much worse he is at "interpreting" the monthlies.

[Jesse]

OK then... cold everywhere this summer!

 

No. How about, those maps are garbage, let's not act like they're the gospel based solely on the fact that they show what you want to see.

 

I am sure about 90% of this forum could put together a more accurate summer forecast based on indices and analogs. 

 

Trust me, that summer forecast will not verify. Even if it ends up being a fairly ridgy summer at times in the west (quite possible) there is no way the entire North American continent will torch in the way that Brett is peddling.

[TT-SEA]

No. How about, those maps are garbage, let's not act like they're the gospel based solely on the fact that they show what you want to see.

 

I am sure about 90% of this forum could put together a more accurate summer forecast based on indices and analogs. 

 

Trust me, that summer forecast will not verify. Even if it ends up being a fairly ridgy summer at times in the west (quite possible) there is no way the entire North American continent will torch in the way that Brett is peddling.

 

 

Who cares?

 

I always take what Brett shows with a grain of salt.   I just try to pick up on the overall pattern as I have said many times.

[TT-SEA]

Here is an example of how Brett Anderson "interprets" the Euro too warm, even when it's showing nothing but brutal cold in the short range.

 

This is a map of the data I get..this is a week2 forecast...as cold as physically possible in a long range model:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/HJwRzG.jpg

 

Now here's Brett Anderson's "interpretation" of the same data..notice anything different?

 

Look at Texas and the East Coast..my backyard in particular. A 5 year old could "interpret" the Euro more accurately. It was forecasting a -13 departure here..Anderson doesn't even put blue over me.

 

http://catchmypicture.com/C9u2cf.jpg

 

 

You can only imagine how much worse he is at "interpreting" the monthlies.

 

 

His map is not that bad... actually way better than I would have guessed.     You are taking his maps way too literally.    The overall pattern was correct... that it all you should use if for anyways.

[Phil]

OK then... cold everywhere this summer!

No, but it'll probably be colder than average somewhere. Even during the great dustbowl, parts of North America were cooler than average.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning here... only got down to 40 which makes me happy and now its sunny.   Going to be a stellar April day.

[TT-SEA]

No, but it'll probably be colder than average somewhere. Even during the great dustbowl, parts of North America were cooler than average.

 

Of course.

 

Hopefully not out here.   A ridgy West will be just fine.   Don't care about anything else really.

[Phil]

His map is not that bad... actually way better than I would have guessed. You are taking his maps way too literally. The overall pattern was correct... that it all you should use if for anyways.

He gets the raw data..how can he miss 200 square miles of cold? This is an example of a weekly forecast that should be relatively accurate in the modeling and easy to "interpret". My 2 year old daughter could do better.

 

The monthlies run way warmer than reality, and Brett Anderson makes it look even worse.

[TT-SEA]

He gets the raw data..how can he miss 200 square miles of cold? This is an example of a weekly forecast that should be relatively accurate in the modeling and easy to "interpret". My 2 year old daughter could do better.

 

 Again... who cares about his detailed colors???

 

The screaming message there was dry out West and bitter cold east of the Rockies.      Interpret it on your own.

 

We had 4 dry days out here that week with above normal temps.    Thats about right.   He should have painted the PNW with more red!!    Ohhhh... the horror.  

[Phil]

Again... who cares about his detailed colors???

 

The screaming message there was dry out West and bitter cold east of the Rockies. Interpret it on your own.

The general public does not understand pattern recognition in fluid dynamics..they don't know what temperature anomalies should look like in a "trough"..or what a "trough" even is.

 

If the average Joe sees orange or white over his house, he won't be suspecting anomalous cold.

 

Only a politically motivated whack job can miss 200 square miles of cold.

[TT-SEA]

The general public does not understand pattern recognition in fluid dynamics..they don't know what temperature anomalies should look like in a "trough"..or what a "trough" even is.

 

If the average Joe sees orange or white over his house, he won't be suspecting anomalous cold.

 

 

Again... don't care how the average Joe interprets his maps.

 

Not using it for the purpose.    The pattern was correct.

 

And in fact... he should have painted more red out there.   SEA was almost +3 for that week with below average rainfall.    He must have a cold bias.       

[TT-SEA]

The general public does not understand pattern recognition in fluid dynamics..they don't know what temperature anomalies should look like in a "trough"..or what a "trough" even is.

 

If the average Joe sees orange or white over his house, he won't be suspecting anomalous cold.

 

Only a politically motivated whack job can miss 200 square miles of cold.

 

 

He also missed hundreds of square miles of warmth out here that week!

 

But he told me what I needed to know about the general pattern.

[Phil]

Here are how the anomalies have actually turned out in the United States since October 1. If that monthly EURO and NMME forecast had even come close to panning out, 85% of the country would be bright red.

 

Temps so far.png

 

Let's not try to paint an awful forecast as a decent one just because its latest release is showing something you want to see, Tim. Let's be intellectually honest here.

The NMME actually showed no cold anywhere over the lower-48 for the entire October-April period, and no cold anywhere on the globe for DJF.

[TT-SEA]

So Phil... what is your call for the West this summer?     Give me some analogs.

[Phil]

He also missed hundreds of square miles of warmth out here that week!

 

But he told me what I needed to know about the general pattern.

He had you painted in orange though. Colors/Visual aids mean a lot when preaching to the stupid. I can't believe you're denying Brett Anderson has a warm bias..I thought you'd be more objective about this..

[Guest Monty67]

The general public does not understand pattern recognition in fluid dynamics..they don't know what temperature anomalies should look like in a "trough"..or what a "trough" even is.

 

If the average Joe sees orange or white over his house, he won't be suspecting anomalous cold.

 

Only a politically motivated whack job can miss 200 square miles of cold.

Are you sure you mean 200 square miles? That's a pretty tiny area when looking at a map of the entire north American land mass

[TT-SEA]

He had you painted in orange though. Colors/Visual aids mean a lot when preaching to the stupid. I can't believe you're denying Brett Anderson has a warm bias..I thought you'd be more objective about this..

 

 

Don't care about his warm bias.    I really don't.

 

How many times do I have to say it... I use his maps to get a general idea of the pattern.    

 

His orange was for dry... not warm.    He uses red for warmth... blue for cold... orange for dry... and green for wet.    He did not show anything regarding the temperatures in the PNW during that week.   Only that it would be drier than normal.   He blew it!    It was warm that week!    And I don't care.     The pattern was correct.   I CAN INTERPRET THE REST ON MY OWN! 

[Phil]

So Phil... what is your call for the West this summer? Give me some analogs.

Warmer and drier than average, with a NPAC low developing and growing in strength as we move into a +AAM/-QBO/Niño/+SAO regime. An enhanced monsoon looks possible as increased moisture will exist in the EPAC as the Hadley Cells shift east with the Walker Cell. This will be fighting the solar forcing which will want to reduce the AAM and the MJO mean period frequency. So it's unlikely that a strong Niño is in the cards. Healthy moderate is possible though, especially if the Sun stays relatively active.

 

Where exactly the NPAC low sets up will determine a lot, though. If things shift too far east, it might be a muggy, wet, warm summer. Farther west, and it'd be drier .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope we have a wet cool summer. Followed by an early fall. 

[TT-SEA]

Warmer and drier than average, with a NPAC low developing and growing in strength as we move into a +AAM/-QBO/Niño/+SAO regime. An enhanced monsoon looks possible as increased moisture will exist in the EPAC as the Hadley Cells shift east with the Walker Cell.

 

Where exactly the NPAC low sets up will determine a lot, though. If things shift too far east, it might be a muggy, wet, warm summer. Farther west, and it'd be drier .

 

 

Love it!

 

That is my general sense as well.

 

Don't care about anything else... just a ridgy summer in the West.    Truly don't care how Brett uses his colors.   Only that there seems to be a tendency for ridging in the West.

[TT-SEA]

I hope we have a wet cool summer. Followed by an early fall. 

 

Why can't it just rain and be cloudy and murky all summer?     It would be so nice to just eliminate any sense of seasons out here and have it rain constantly.     Warm wet winters... cold wet summers.    Always within the 40-60 degree range with a cold rain!    

[Phil]

Love it!

 

That is my general sense as well.

 

Don't care about anything else... just a ridgy summer in the West. Truly don't care how Brett uses his colors. Only that there seems to be a tendency for ridging in the West.

It's a tough one though because we have the solar signal competing with the tropical signal..to criminally simplify it. I think the tropics will win out given solar forcing is in-between and chaotic, but the stratosphere suggests a good portion of the central/eastern US may see a cooler summer.

 

The 1960s are calling. I don't think it'll be this cold, but the possibility is there:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/QwP0m1.jpg

[Timmy Supercell]

I hope we have a wet cool summer. Followed by an early fall. 

 

That wet better be from convection! Or else!!

 

[TT-SEA]

It's a tough one though because we have the solar signal competing with the tropical signal..to criminally simplify it. I think the tropics will win out given solar forcing is in-between and chaotic, but the stratosphere suggests a good portion of the central/eastern US may see a cooler summer.

 

The 1960s are calling. I don't think it'll be this cold, but the possibility is there:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/QwP0m1.jpg

 

 

When its cooler than normal east of the Rockies... the weather is usually nice out here.

[Guest Monty67]

 

What a joke. I wish people would refrain before posting complete trash maps like those and peddling them as fact.

 

Our "very dry" February sure worked out! Same with our blowtorch December with seasonable to mild weather all winter across the northern tier.

 

Brett Anderson is a global warming alarmist hack.

I am glad I posted the "complete trash maps" it actually made for an interesting read this morning. Better than the who wants frost and who doesn't, who likes native plants in their yard and cloud tracking discussion of yesterday. I actually enjoyed reading some of the comments and some were very informative.

 

BTW Tim, your yard is gorgeous IMO. I wish more people took the time and pride to "manicure" their property in my area.

[Phil]

Even when adding in some strong Niño years to account for the strong tropical forcings that will be present over the next several months, I still get the same cool signal over the US:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/zV6xDB.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Even when adding in some strong Niño years to account for the strong tropical forcings that will be present over the next several months, I still get the same cool signal over the US:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/zV6xDB.jpg

 

 

Love that "signal".  

 

I hope the rest of the country is cold all summer... because that means it will likely be warm out here.

[TT-SEA]

BTW Tim, your yard is gorgeous IMO. I wish more people took the time and pride to "manicure" their property in my area.

 

 

Thanks... most of the credit goes to my wife.  

 

Biggest pet peeve I have about the PNW... some people really care about how their property looks but a huge percentage of the population does not care at all.   In Minnesota... even most modest homes are well maintained with manicured yards.    Its part of the culture there to take pride in your home and yard.    Its not about money... its about taking pride in ownership.