April 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Do it this weekend, dummy.  

 

Yeah... that sort of sucks.    We have family in town next weekend and planned to do it next Saturday with a bunch of kids.    This Saturday it would just be me putting some eggs out there and my daughter looking for them by herself.   Not the same.   

 

But that might be all we get... the ECMWF is just absolute endless rain every 6 hour period from Wednesday through the weekend.

[Deweydog]

Yeah... that sort of sucks.    We have family in town next weekend and planned to do it next Saturday with a bunch of kids.    This Saturday it would just be me putting some eggs out there and my daughter looking for them by herself.   Not the same.   

 

But that might be all we get... the ECMWF is just absolute endless rain every 6 hour period from Wednesday through the weekend.

 

Sounds like pure hell.  

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah... that sort of sucks.    We have family in town next weekend and planned to do it next Saturday with a bunch of kids.    This Saturday it would just be me putting some eggs out there and my daughter looking for them by herself.   Not the same.   

 

But that might be all we get... the ECMWF is just absolute endless rain every 6 hour period from Wednesday through the weekend.

Making a fun hunt inside would be just as fun for the kids as outside, you just have to be creative.

 

Of course you will most likely be glued to the weather models which is way more important apparently.

[Jesse]

Another really gorgeous day. Sunny and breezy with high clouds at times and a high of 66 after a low of 39.

 

This period of nice weather with moderate (not even close to record-high) temps has been incredibly pleasant.

[GHweatherChris]

Another really gorgeous day. Sunny and breezy with high clouds at times and a high of 66 after a low of 39.

 

This period of nice weather with moderate (not even close to record-high) temps has been incredibly pleasant.

It has been a good stretch.  Rained just a bit Tuesday night when we got to Seaside, was beautiful Wednesday and gorgeous when we got home yesterday and today, tons of yard work completed.

[Timmy Supercell]

73 / 31 today. Was a little breezy so I thought it wouldn't break 70! Felt nice out there.

 

Been running about 15-20 degrees above the average for 4 days. In the not too distant future highs should be going down to low-mid 50's again with a few 40's.

[TT-SEA]

Movie night on the patio... Avengers.

 

The heaters are the best thing we ever did... they are directly connected to the natural gas with no tanks.     And they extend our patio season by 2 or 3 months each year.   Its perfectly comfortable out here... and a nice treat on April 11th.  

 

http://s12.postimg.org/d47lmjp9p/10172859_622120634522815_5280664503397948987_n.jpg

[GHweatherChris]

Movie night on the patio... Avengers.

 

The heaters are the best thing we ever did... they are directly connected to the natural gas with no tanks.     And they extend our patio season by 2 or 3 months each year.   Its perfectly comfortable out here... and a nice treat on April 11th.  

 

http://s12.postimg.org/d47lmjp9p/10172859_622120634522815_5280664503397948987_n.jpg

I would think you would have a projector with a screen with that deck and property.

 

We have one and project a 18 foot movie on the back of the garage and sit around a campfire, almost feels like a drive in.

 

Although that will change in a week, we are moving, but we have a 12 foot blow up screen to use as well.

[GHweatherChris]

Where are you moving to Chris?

Oh, only about a 1/2 mile away in the same area.  We refuse to move closer to Aberdeen itself with the school up here being so great and when our daughter starts Junior High we can avoid Aberdeen completely.

[Guest Monty67]

Movie night on the patio... Avengers.

 

The heaters are the best thing we ever did... they are directly connected to the natural gas with no tanks.     And they extend our patio season by 2 or 3 months each year.   Its perfectly comfortable out here... and a nice treat on April 11th.  

 

Put up some type of retractable awning system, combine that with your heaters, and you could enjoy being outdoors.......even when its raining.......    I hear that happens often where you live.

[TT-SEA]

Put up some type of retractable awning system, combine that with your heaters, and you could enjoy being outdoors.......even when its raining.......    I hear that happens often where you live.

 

Nahhhh... that would not be so fun.   We just want to take advantage of the dry days.

 

By that point you are really almost inside with a window open.    

[TT-SEA]

GFS marching to its own tune for next week and weekend.

 

Much drier overall... and actually really nice on Easter.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_216_precip_p12.gif

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 00Z Canadian at 144 hours.   Look at the fetch of moisture across the Pacific... and almost no ridges or troughs between here and Japan. 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[Guest Monty67]

Easter egg hunt dummy.

 

And according to the ECMWF that will be the 5th day of almost non-stop rain for Western WA.   

 

Miserable if that verifies.

I don't know, its mid-april, I gotta believe there will be at least a few breaks in there.

[Jesse]

So I was thinking, it seems that the lows have been rather mild so far this April. PDX only fell to 48 this morning, for instance.

 

Before doing some research I didn't realize HOW mild. So far PDX's low for the month is 42. If they fail to fall below 40 for the rest of the month it will be the first time in history that PDX hasn't hit the 30s in April. They have hit 39 or lower at some point every year going back to the 1940s.

 

They definitely have a chance of hitting the 30s at some point in the remaining last 18 days of the month. It is pretty surprising that they haven't at any time in the last few days with the elevated cool night potential, though. You'd think if they were going to do it, this week/weekend was their best chance. But in fact the overachieving lows have been fairly notable in this air mass even.

 

Right now they are sitting at an average high/low of 62.4/45.1 for the month, giving them an average temp of 53.7

 

Their average low of 45.1 so far is just .1 degree away from getting them into the top five for warm April average mins, and their overall average of 53.7 is just .4 away from breaking into the top five warmest Aprils overall.

 

Anyway, just interesting. We will see if the month continues on this mild note. I think the potential is certainly there.

[Jesse]

Made it down to 41 out here this morning with more clearing. But even my location has been no cooler than 39 degrees this month, which I would imagine is unusual. April frost is fairly common out here.

[Guest Monty67]

Made it down to 41 out here this morning with more clearing. But even my location has been no cooler than 39 degrees this month, which I would imagine is unusual. April frost is fairly common out here.

33, 35, 38, 35 here the last 4 mornings. But our average last frost isn't until the very end of the month.

[TT-SEA]

GFS and to some extent the Canadian are backing off on the wetness later this coming week and next weekend.

 

12Z GFS is dry for next weekend now... and warm.

 

Don't buy it yet because the ECMWF is still very wet and crappy.    But the other models are trending in the right direction.

[Jesse]

12z GFS is a decent run. Maybe PDX will finally be able to fall below 40.

[chinook]

Nice day. 

 

For the last three days...McMinnville had two 36f mornings and a 38f. 

[richard mann]

-
Regarding the cold morning potential, general theme here above.

If perhaps counter-intuitive to what might be expected at this seasonal point looked at more in particularly, main and broader cold air mass is currently moving and spreading daily more southward: .having begun to do so back on the 6th.

— This with its also, more at this point, being set to begin to move more assertively east.

.. A basic last window for cold potential north more or less, as I see things.

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/201-early-spring-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=24322

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

 

.. Of course the cooler temps over the past three days, mornings, have also been connected with more basic radiational cooling. 

[Jesse]

12z Euro is nice too. Definitely a more active, variable pattern on the way it appears.

[westcoastexpat]

Hoping for some decent weather end of the month into May

[Tyler Mode]

Probably the westerly winds keeping temps up at night?

I was through Stevenson yesterday and the wind was ripping pretty good.

 

For my station, I dropped down to 34 on Thursday and 33 on Friday.

Made it down to 41 out here this morning with more clearing. But even my location has been no cooler than 39 degrees this month, which I would imagine is unusual. April frost is fairly common out here.

 

[snow_wizard]

So I was thinking, it seems that the lows have been rather mild so far this April. PDX only fell to 48 this morning, for instance.

 

Before doing some research I didn't realize HOW mild. So far PDX's low for the month is 42. If they fail to fall below 40 for the rest of the month it will be the first time in history that PDX hasn't hit the 30s in April. They have hit 39 or lower at some point every year going back to the 1940s.

 

They definitely have a chance of hitting the 30s at some point in the remaining last 18 days of the month. It is pretty surprising that they haven't at any time in the last few days with the elevated cool night potential, though. You'd think if they were going to do it, this week/weekend was their best chance. But in fact the overachieving lows have been fairly notable in this air mass even.

 

Right now they are sitting at an average high/low of 62.4/45.1 for the month, giving them an average temp of 53.7

 

Their average low of 45.1 so far is just .1 degree away from getting them into the top five for warm April average mins, and their overall average of 53.7 is just .4 away from breaking into the top five warmest Aprils overall.

 

Anyway, just interesting. We will see if the month continues on this mild note. I think the potential is certainly there.

 

That is kind of odd.  There has really been nothing unusual about the low temps here.  We had a light frost with a low of 35 yesterday.  Should be close to freezing tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down in K-Falls for the weekend. Beautiful weather down here today. Timmy Supercell, what street/area of K-Falls do you live in?

[TT-SEA]

Should be close to freezing tonight.

We are doing great here avoiding any frost.

 

Anyways... dewpoints are in the low 40s right now so I don't think there is much of a chance of tonight. And the upcoming pattern has virtually no chance of frost... mild and occsionally wet.

 

How it actually matters to you if its 32 or 38 at 4 a.m. in April is beyond me though. It matters to me in a much more tangible way. Matters to all people with gardens in fact.

 

And now Dewey will ask how it matters to me that it matters to you whether its 32 or 38 at 4 a.m. in April.

[TT-SEA]

Feel a little sunburned after we worked in the yard all day.    The sun came out here around 9:30 and was it was sunny the rest of the day.   

 

Beautiful day... so nice to have this work out on a weekend.

[TT-SEA]

No more complaining about the temperature being too warm at SEA...

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-great-sea-tac-temperature-mystery.html

[TT-SEA]

Sunrise over Mt. Si... going to be a spectacular day!

 

http://s7.postimg.org/lgjiz3zej/Untitled.jpg

 

http://s30.postimg.org/mmv8g8l0h/Untitled.jpg

[Phil]

No more complaining about the temperature being too warm at SEA...

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-great-sea-tac-temperature-mystery.html

BLI-Snowman will not be pleased.

[Phil]

Daily SOI up to 28.8 as the easterlies return for a bit. SOI has also been positive 10 out of the past 13 days: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[BLI snowman]

BLI-Snowman will not be pleased.

 

It was obvious in December that their temps were too warm, which made it lame from a historic standpoint.

[Jesse]

It was obvious in December that their temps were too warm, which made it lame from a historic standpoint.

Do you think any locations will see a top 5 warm April this year? PDX is right on the cusp of entering the top 5 right now. If the next 2 1/2 weeks average mild they could be in the running.

[Jesse]

Stunning day out. Visibility is the best I have seen in a while. Also the strongest east winds out here since early March.

Currently crystal clear and 64 after a low of 39.

[Phil]

It was obvious in December that their temps were too warm, which made it lame from a historic standpoint.

I was joshing a bit. I just remember pages and pages of debate back on western over the SEA-tac data, and whether or not the station was flawed/influenced by the 3rd runway/etc.

 

At least we have our answer now. I hope the other offenders (Detroit & DCA) will be looked at more closely. DCA in particular can be a real laugher, sometimes running 15-20 degrees warmer than air rounding areas...River/UHI not withstanding.

[Phil]

Stunning day out. Visibility is the best I have seen in a while. Also the strongest east winds out here since early March.

 

Currently crystal clear and 64 after a low of 39.

Awesome. Very nice stretch of weather here too...sunshine, singing birds, and the unforgettable smell of fresh, spring air

 

Unfortunately, the trees still look no different than they did in mid-January. Some wild forsythia has started to bloom though:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/BDu8c7/800.jpg

[BLI snowman]

I was joshing a bit. I just remember pages and pages of debate back on western over the SEA-tac data, and whether or not the station was flawed/influenced by the 3rd runway/etc.

 

At least we have our answer now. I hope the other offenders (Detroit & DCA) will be looked at more closely. DCA in particular can be a real laugher, sometimes running 15-20 degrees warmer than air rounding areas...River/UHI not withstanding.

 

The thing about SEA is that the warm bias was on/off and was much more noticeable in the fall than ever before. Their temps during the cold spell in December were just ridiculous.

[BLI snowman]

Do you think any locations will see a top 5 warm April this year? PDX is right on the cusp of entering the top 5 right now. If the next 2 1/2 weeks average mild they could be in the running.

 

Don't know, don't really care right now. There certainly hasn't been anything extreme thus far, though.

[luminen]

This is definitely the nicest April I've experienced in Oregon. We'll probably pay for it with a wet May/June but that's fine. We could use some more rain before the dry season.