April 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

I didn't think the weather was bad at all today. I think you're just ready to move.

 

 

Yeah... Jesse was in the eastern Gorge and it was not bad at all there so it MUST have been pretty nice in Covington.    

 

Just 200 miles to the north and west and closer to the water and the storm that rolled through here yesterday!   Jim is just ready to move so he complains about nice days.    Silly guy.

 

Jim described the weather up here perfectly.    It was a miserable day after about 11 a.m.     Almost constant downpours and wind.   Particularly in southern and central King County.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday was pretty wet here. Friday was fabulous.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at some more weather data this morning, looks like Stayton, OR put up some really impressive numbers this winter. With the December event they put up a 26/3, 23/5, 27/7.

 

With the February event they pulled off a 23/18 on the 7th and a 27/15 on the 8th. Combined precip for those two days was 0.95". 

 

Even though they are on the valley floor only about 10 miles away from my location they had more snow with both the December and February events then I did...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, Tim you should move to the 3100' level in the Oregon Cascades. 6 straight 70+ days at this location in January 2013!

 

http://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USR0000OYEL&year=2013&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

I know that was a pretty serious inversion, but their sensor may be a little exposed...

[Jesse]

Yeah... Jesse was in the eastern Gorge and it was not bad at all there so it MUST have been pretty nice in Covington.

 

Just 200 miles to the north and west and closer to the water and the storm that rolled through here yesterday! Jim is just ready to move so he complains about nice days. Silly guy.

 

Jim described the weather up here perfectly. It was a miserable day after about 11 a.m. Almost constant downpours and wind. Particularly in southern and central King County.

Speaking of people who are ready to move...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going to say that I have already not given this winter enough credit. 

 

I was kind of down because it was a poor snow year at my location, but for the Willamette Valley there is no way anyone can have any complaints. Just reviewing the numbers from the two cold snaps it is starting to sink in just how impressive those events were. Especially for our post 1990 era.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going to make a separate thread with some of the numbers from this past winters cold snaps at some of the outlying Willamette Valley locations. No sense posting it on the April thread. 

[Phil]

1) Another MJO event gathering. Still no sign of another big WWB regime, but trades will be definitely weakening this week. EPAC warming (Niño 1-2-3) will occur in 5-10 days, as the KW surfaces with the decline of the trades, and is warmed by the Sun at the surface.

 

2) Walker cell still centered very far east, as it has been for the past 9 months. Definite El Niño precursor. The global circulations have been in El Niño mode since January 29th. Classic case of atmospheric-lead .

 

3) The QBO is tanking at 30mb and the tropopause is lowering over the tropics. This will accelerate the transition process in the tropics and perhaps prevent the El Niño from getting a firm grip on the MJO and the meridional cells. Very reminiscent of the 1960s El Niños..

[Phil]

Being foolish and taking El Niño/QBO alone (as some do), using the ECMWF ENSO-recon, for next winter we get:

 

2009-10, 1991-92, 1986-87, 1976-77, 1972-73, 1968-69, 1965-66, 1958-59, 1951-52

 

Adjusting for solar, health of Brewer-Dobson O^3 flux, and origin/dynamic construction of the ENSO, you're left with:

 

2009-10, 1986-87, 1976-77, 1968-69, 1965-66, 1958-59.

[TT-SEA]

Happy Easter!    Glad the weather is better for one day... an important day at that.  

 

[Phil]

Great picture and fantastic landscaping work. How many acres do you have?

 

I'm thinking about adding some big stones and trees to my yard before I sell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The next week is looking pretty wet. I'd say I could easily pick up 2-3" of rain. I'm at about 3" for the month right now. So essentially average precip for April here.

[Deweydog]

Happy Easter!    Glad the weather is better for one day... an important day at that.  

 

 

I'm really glad it worked out for you considering all you and your family have been through.  

[Jesse]

Being foolish and taking El Niño/QBO alone (as some do), using the ECMWF ENSO-recon, for next winter we get:

 

2009-10, 1991-92, 1986-87, 1976-77, 1972-73, 1968-69, 1965-66, 1958-59, 1951-52

 

Adjusting for solar, health of Brewer-Dobson O^3 flux, and origin/dynamic construction of the ENSO, you're left with:

 

2009-10, 1986-87, 1976-77, 1968-69, 1965-66, 1958-59.

 

Not trying to start anything,  but don't we have an ENSO thread?

[Phil]

Not trying to start anything, but don't we have an ENSO thread?

I could have sworn I put both of those posts in the ENSO thread.

 

I can delete them you want.

[Jesse]

I could have sworn I put both of those posts in the ENSO thread.

 

I can delete them you want.

 

Doesn't bother me either way. It IS nice to have all of the ENSO information in one spot ( I know others have said this too) but I'm not going to go so far to tell you to delete them. I don't feel like I even have (or deserve) the authority for that kind of command.

[westcoastexpat]

Awesome. Very nice stretch of weather here too...sunshine, singing birds, and the unforgettable smell of fresh, spring air

 

Unfortunately, the trees still look no different than they did in mid-January. Some wild forsythia has started to bloom though:

 

 

This is essentially how the trees look up in Ontario as well.

 

I've had to take a bit of a break from the weather watching the last couple months. It's been extremely tiring dealing with winter's last clutch. I'm just ready for green. Grass is dead from our record breaking 102 days in a row of consistent snow cover and anytime the buds start showing up a 20F night time low comes along and kills them. 

 

I probably shouldn't complain since I do love having 4 distinct seasons as opposed to a very short winter/summer and seemingly endless spring/fall as I used to experience in NW Washington state, but spring seems to be the season the east experiences the least of and it's sadly one of my favourites!

 

I should be moving back permanently (rather than transiently) to either Seattle or Vancouver in about a year's time. After the coldest and snowiest winter in 20 years, I've definitely had my fix of a real winter and I'm ready for a PNW winter--much more enjoyable. Also, I miss mountains and all-year greenery so-o much.

[TT-SEA]

High clouds have broken apart all day as they move towards us... King County is being rewarded today after being pounded yesterday.

[richard mann]

I'm really glad it worked out for you considering all blah, blah ... (profound enough.)  

 

Happy Easter, Tim. 

 

— Were you able to, with looking back at whatever model/s that you'd been looking at having been projecting a glooming day, I believe that you'd find, that they had not accounted for main colder air's regression, in effect at this point and having been since about 12z yesterday. 

[TT-SEA]

Happy Easter, Tim. 

 

— Were you able to, with looking back at whatever model/s that you'd been looking at having been projecting a glooming day, I believe that you'd find, that they had not accounted for main colder air's regression, in effect at this point and having been since about 12z yesterday. 

 

 

No... the models have shown today to be dry for about 5 days now.    You have go back about 6 or 7 days since the models showed rain today.   

[GHweatherChris]

No... the models have shown today to be dry for about 5 days now.    You have go back about 6 or 7 days since the models showed rain today.   

 

You were convinced 6 or 7 days ago that Easter would be a wash.

[TT-SEA]

 

You were convinced 6 or 7 days ago that Easter would be a wash.

 

 

Yes... it did look bad a week ago.    And it was terrible until late last night.

 

It basically rained here non-stop from Tuesday evening through Friday morning.    Also rained a little Friday afternoon here and then absolutely dumped rain yesterday afternoon and evening.     The ECMWF showed tons of rain for the Tuesday - Saturday period last weekend and it could not have been more right.    It did show the system offshore right now being about 200 miles farther east today.    

We got lucky.    

 

Rain begins tomorrow and it looks like another fairly wet week.

[richard mann]

No... the models have shown today to be dry for about 5 days now.    You have go back about 6 or 7 days since the models showed rain today.

 

.. I don't know what the "No" is all about here. I'd clearly said," ... with looking back at whatever model/s that you'd been looking at .... having been projecting a glooming day."

 

— The main point that I'd been trying to make / idea that I'd been trying to share with you, having been that when they had, projected gloom, rain more specifically, whatever less conducive to Easter in your view, that they had appeared not to have been accounting for the beginning of the regression of cold that I'd brought up. The main focus more, of what I'd said.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/201-early-spring-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=25469

 

— That beginning, of main colder air regression northward, together with its still relatively slow movement more eastward, is what allowed warmer and dryer air mass north to where you are. Or looked at more generally, a more favorable, if short-lived, "buckling" in and of the Main Jet.

 

14041900z 14042100z na satsfc - Post the transition. Cold's initial regression northward.-@ @

14041700z 14041912z na satsfc - And previous to it. Cold's final day and a half or so, of expansion (movement and spread.) more southward.

 

.. Main focus again, about 12z for the 19th. - ....- http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/201-early-spring-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=24322

[GHweatherChris]

Yes... it did look bad a week ago.    And it was terrible until late last night.

 

It basically rained here non-stop from Tuesday evening through Friday morning.    Also rained a little Friday afternoon here and then absolutely dumped rain yesterday afternoon and evening.     The ECMWF showed tons of rain for the Tuesday - Saturday period last weekend and it could not have been more right.    It did show the system offshore right now being about 200 miles farther east today.    

We got lucky.    

 

Rain begins tomorrow and it looks like another fairly wet week.

Oh well.

[richard mann]

Yes... it did look bad a week ago. .. And it was terrible until late last night.

 

".. it".... ?

 

("Things"[?], did and were, or looked, perhaps. ?) ... In any case, nothing here works against what I'd said more initially above. "Happy Easter".

[Deweydog]

 

".. it".... ?

 

("Things"[?], did and were, or looked, perhaps. ?) ... In any case, nothing here works against what I'd said more initially above. "Happy Easter".

 

Wow.

[richard mann]

Wow.

 

Mom.

[TT-SEA]

Models are beginning to hint at a period of warm ridging early next week.

 

Just hinting... but its more hope than we have seen recently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models are beginning to hint at a period of warm ridging early next week.

 

Just hinting... but its more hope than we have seen recently.

 

This week looks wet.

[Jesse]

Models are beginning to hint at a period of warm ridging early next week.

 

Just hinting... but its more hope than we have seen recently.

Yeah, we are sooo deprived. We've only seen the default ridge position over the west since last summer or earlier.

[TT-SEA]

This week looks wet.

 

 

No kidding.    Thanks for the update!

 

Miserable.    Too much.   Not just passing showers.

 

I know you want it to dump rain every single day forever... but hey you are a native!

 

The hope for ridging will allow me to focus on something else this week.    I have had 6 inches of rain in the last week.    And another 2-4 inches coming this week.  

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, we are sooo deprived. We've only seen the default ridge position over the west since last summer or earlier.

 

 

Who cares??

 

Now is not the time to start getting into an endless parade of systems and daily rain.      

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, we are sooo deprived. We've only seen the default ridge position over the west since last summer or earlier.

 

 

You should go hiking in the desert of eastern Oregon and just assume the weather is exactly the same over here for the rest of us!     

 

I don't care how warm it gets... just want some dry days.    Deep inside a trough could work as well but that seems impossible lately since California has decided to ban rain forever.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, we are sooo deprived. We've only seen the default ridge position over the west since last summer or earlier.

 

Pointing out the possibility of pleasant weather is rough stuff.  

[Jesse]

Pointing out the possibility of pleasant weather is rough stuff.

I hope it works out for him, after all he and his family have been through.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just fertilized my lawn. I am looking forward to the rain. 

[TT-SEA]

I just fertilized my lawn. I am looking forward to the rain. 

 

 

I did that... got too much rain and believe its all washed out of the soil now.  

 

You don't need 10 straight days of rain to activate fertilizer!    A couple hours will do.   

[Deweydog]

I hope it works out for him, after all he and his family have been through.

 

Just as I hope your delusions of previous default ridging get you through.  I'm pulling for both you fellas.  

[richard mann]

-
.. Welcome to another day of "It's all about Tim".. ['s, attitude and perspective on the weather of the PNW; somewhere in King County, WA.] ... Who cares, I don't care, thanks for the update. ...

[Jesse]

Just as I hope your delusions of previous default ridging get you through. I'm pulling for both you fellas.

Tell California that the west as a whole hasn't been under a default ridge the last 12+ months.

 

I am fine with some warm weather to start out May. Tim's bellyaching just gets a little old, considering we had a fairly dry winter. I'm sure you agree, but the kneejerk devil's advocate responses can be VERY hard to control. You and your family will be in my prayers.