April 2014 in the PNW

[richard mann]

... default ridge.

 

Interesting concept, though I might characterized the more general state here more south during the past 12-plus months—either more generally, or main pattern wise as you have with this idea—a little differently. Allow me to revisit this later, with some looking back at and over some things.

[Deweydog]

Tell California that the west as a whole hasn't been under a default ridge the last 12+ months.

 

I am fine with some warm weather to start out May. Tim's bellyaching just gets a little old, considering we had a fairly dry winter. I'm sure you agree, but the kneejerk devil's advocate responses can be VERY hard to control. You and your family will be in my prayers.

 

Default ridging since last summer, as you put it, is not an accurate statement.  Feel free to call out Tim for his OCD, narcissism, etc. all you want, but it is what it is...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

September was wet. So were February and March.

[Deweydog]

September was wet. So were February and March.

 

Not a perfect measure, but October was actually our lowest PNA month of the last several as well.  Lowest October PNA since 2006, in fact.  

[Jesse]

Not a perfect measure, but October was actually our lowest PNA month of the last several as well. Lowest October PNA since 2006, in fact.

That surprises me. Aside from the first ten days October was fairly ridgy.

[Deweydog]

That surprises me. Aside from the first ten days October was fairly ridgy.

 

It was a fairly dynamic month from a 500mb perspective.  Definitely a pretty classic +PNA for several days later in the month, but the start and finish were just a classic from a -PNA perspective.  

 

Ultimately, the PNA, which again isn't a comprehensive look at things but a decent one, averaged negative to date since last summer.  And in a surprising turn of events, January was the only real spike.  There's really nothing to any claim of default, longwave ridging for the west coast.  As for California, heights are supposed to be high there.  

[Phil]

It was a fairly dynamic month from a 500mb perspective. Definitely a pretty classic +PNA for several days later in the month, but the start and finish were just a classic from a -PNA perspective.

 

Ultimately, the PNA, which again isn't a comprehensive look at things but a decent one, averaged negative to date since last summer. And in a surprising turn of events, January was the only real spike. There's really nothing to any claim of default, longwave ridging for the west coast. As for California, heights are supposed to be high there.

False, the PNA domain does not measure what you're referring to. It measures pressure differentials across the NPAC. In this case heights were well above avg across the entire domain space:

 

Here's the Oct-Mar 500mb height anomaly:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/W4drXa.jpg

[Deweydog]

False, the PNA domain does not measure what you're referring to. It measures pressure differentials across the NPAC. In this case heights were well above avg across the entire domain space:

 

Here's the Oct-Mar 500mb height anomaly:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/W4drXa.jpg

 

I'm aware of that, but I'm also aware that you're not going to have high heights over the PNW combined with a solidly negative PNA and vice versa.  And that maps represents GOA/Alaska ridging, which was well-represented during most of the more meridional patterns during the cold season.  

[Phil]

I'm aware of that, but I'm also aware that you're not going to have high heights over the PNW combined with a solidly negative PNA and vice versa. And that maps represents GOA/Alaska ridging, which was well-represented during most of the more meridional patterns during the cold season.

Heights were more than a full standard deviation above avg in the PNW and along the west coast w/ the -PNA due to the expansive nature of the ridge. Sure the ridge wobbled around but the mean axis has been situated right along or just off the west coast for awhile now.

 

So yes, it has been a "semi-permanent " feature for awhile now, as has the PV in SE Canada.

[TT-SEA]

In response to Jesse... its been very wet here overall since the middle of February.    

 

I will cheer on any pattern that delivers some meaningful dry weather.    I don't care what happened 8 months ago.

 

We have proven time and time again that being in a trough usually means wet and cold which is not enjoyable if you have any sort of life.   You know that.   

[TT-SEA]

Heights were more than a full standard deviation above avg in the PNW and along the west coast w/ the -PNA due to the expansive nature of the ridge. Sure the ridge wobbled around but the mean axis has been situated right along or just off the west coast for awhile now.

 

So yes, it has been a "semi-permanent " feature for awhile now, as has the PV in SE Canada.

 

The PV in southern Canada has been insanely persistent.    Hence... my friends and relatives in Minnesota hated this winter almost universally.

 

Its displaced to the south next week on the 12Z ECMWF... but its still there.    

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014042112!!chart.gif

[FroYoBro]

How about dem blazers?

[Deweydog]

How about dem blazers?

 

80 and mostly cloudy in Houston today.  Great weather for celebrating a fluky victory the night before.  Aldridge was a stud, though.  

[TT-SEA]

Diffluent flow.

[Jesse]

Heights were more than a full standard deviation above avg in the PNW and along the west coast w/ the -PNA due to the expansive nature of the ridge. Sure the ridge wobbled around but the mean axis has been situated right along or just off the west coast for awhile now.

 

So yes, it has been a "semi-permanent " feature for awhile now, as has the PV in SE Canada.

 

Precisely what I am saying.

 

Ridging has favored the west for the past year or more. No way around it.

[BLI snowman]

80 and mostly cloudy in Houston today.  Great weather for celebrating a fluky victory the night before.  Aldridge was a stud, though.  

 

46 and 18 is historic. 1800s esque.

[Dan the Weatherman]

You should go hiking in the desert of eastern Oregon and just assume the weather is exactly the same over here for the rest of us!     

 

I don't care how warm it gets... just want some dry days.    Deep inside a trough could work as well but that seems impossible lately since California has decided to ban rain forever.

 

Oh, so that is why we can't get a decent storm down here as of late.  LOL

 

On a more serious note there may actually be a shot of some late season showers even in Socal this coming Friday night and early Saturday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.76" of rain overnight up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS trending toward climo for May.

[Jesse]

CFS trending toward climo for May.

What was it showing before?

[chinook]

close to 1/4" of rain fell overnight. 

 

currently...44f with partly sunny skies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What was it showing before?

 

Western ridging.

[TT-SEA]

0.76" of rain overnight up here.

 

 

Its important to get another 5-8 inches of rain in order to activate fertilizer.   

 

12 inches or more is ideal though.     

 

Most fertilizers will not be active until they are drowned in rain for months.   

 

(in reality... by early next week you will have probably lost all benefit of your fertilizer and will have to re-apply)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its important to get another 5-8 inches of rain in order to activate fertilizer.   

 

12 inches or more is ideal though.     

 

Most fertilizers will not be active until they are drowned in rain for months.   

 

I don't think 3/4" of rain is to much!

[TT-SEA]

I don't think 3/4" of rain is to much!

 

 

Yes... perfect amount.   

 

Hopefully it does not rain any more for the next week!     I am sure that will happen.  

[Guest Monty67]

I see Seattle is up around 7" above normal rainfall for 2014. Must be all that dominant ridging.     You gotta think we are likely to see a return of seasonably drier weather soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes... perfect amount.   

 

Hopefully it does not rain any more for the next week!     I am sure that will happen.  

 

Partly cloudy this morning!

[TT-SEA]

I see Seattle is up around 7" above normal rainfall for 2014. Must be all that dominant ridging.     You gotta think we are likely to see a return of seasonably drier weather soon.

 

 

Its absolutely disgraceful to be searching for some dry, pleasant weather in the models and to mention the possibility exists.    We really need tons of rain.      

 

As Jim said... the best way to describe spring around here is 'ghastly'.   

[TT-SEA]

Partly cloudy this morning!

 

 

Whew!

 

You are good to go... no more rain coming.   

[Jesse]

I see Seattle is up around 7" above normal rainfall for 2014. Must be all that dominant ridging. You gotta think we are likely to see a return of seasonably drier weather soon.

Western ridging (positive 500mb anomalies) have dominated the scene since last summer overall. The maps don't lie.

 

This year so far, January was very dry and Feb/March have been wet. The first half of April was very pleasant and dry overall.

 

If you want to have an adult discussion about this we can continue this back and fourth. Or you can continue making posts to no one, indirectly calling people's ideas out without addressing them personally. Up to you.

[TT-SEA]

Western ridging (positive 500mb anomalies) have dominated the scene since last summer overall. The maps don't lie.

 

This year so far, January was very dry and Feb/March have been wet. The first half of April was very pleasant and dry overall.

 

If you want to have an adult discussion about this we can c

 

 

SEA is running way above normal for rainfall for April now as well.     After a very wet February and the wettest March in history.

 

It has not been dry up here... despite a pleasant 6-day period in there earlier this month.

 

Its been very wet for 2 months up here.   

[Jesse]

Its absolutely disgraceful to be searching for some dry, pleasant weather in the models and to mention the possibility exists. We really need tons of rain.

 

As Jim said... the best way to describe spring around here is 'ghastly'.

Everyone should just move from the NW huh? It is so ugly and crappy here. I can't believe there are millions of people living in the Portland and Seattle metro areas alone, with droves more moving up from California or elsewhere every year. It's almost like people like it up here or something.

[TT-SEA]

Everyone should just move from the NW huh? It is so ugly and crappy here. I can't believe there are millions of people living in the Portland and Seattle metro areas alone, with droves more moving up from California or elsewhere every year. It's almost like people like it up here or something.

 

 

Yep... we all cheer for 40-degree rain all spring.    Everyone loves it!    

 

There is no denying it can be pretty miserable here well into early summer.      Its just a fact of life.

 

Even you dream of moving to drier climate!

[Guest Monty67]

Western ridging (positive 500mb anomalies) have dominated the scene since last summer overall. The maps don't lie.

 

This year so far, January was very dry and Feb/March have been wet. The first half of April was very pleasant and dry overall.

 

If you want to have an adult discussion about this we can continue this back and fourth. Or you can continue making post to no one indirectly calling people's ideas out without addressing them personally. Up to you.

I think Phil made a great post yesterday, producing some values and a map for your side of the argument.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS looks like its saying 'no' to ridging and drier weather next week.    In fact... it appears to be heading towards a very wet solution.  

[Guest Monty67]

The 12Z GFS looks like its saying 'no' to ridging and drier weather next week.    In fact... it appears to be heading towards a very wet solution.

awesome news. The Gfs-ensemble was heading in that direction last night.

[TT-SEA]

awesome news. The Gfs-ensemble was heading in that direction last night.

 

 

Some rain would be really nice.    Its so dry out there.  I am really excited about it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My lower pasture could really use the moisture. This rain combined with mild temps is resulting in a proliferation of foliage! 

[TT-SEA]

My lower pasture could really use the moisture. This rain combined with mild temps is resulting in a proliferation of foliage! 

 

 

Here is the rainfall map for the next week:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_168_precip_ptot.gif

 

 

Seems like you might get a few showers in there in between our long, sunny, warm days.  

[Guest Monty67]

Western ridging (positive 500mb anomalies) have dominated the scene since last summer overall. The maps don't lie.

 

This year so far, January was very dry and Feb/March have been wet. The first half of April was very pleasant and dry overall.

 

If you want to have an adult discussion about this we can continue this back and fourth. Or you can continue making post to no one indirectly calling people's ideas out without addressing them personally. Up to you.

January was not very dry here. 89% of normal rainfall actually. So a pretty typical January. I realize it was drier as you head south.