Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[snow_wizard]

Tim will say the Euro is not on board if the Euro turns out to not be on board. Prepare yourselves.

 

 

[MossMan]

Sorry Jake...Our totals have dropped.

[HighlandExperience]

Sorry Jake...Our totals have dropped.

Swamp looks better

[MossMan]

Windy! Looks like lots of outages just west of our lake house.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[ShawniganLake]

Sorry Jake...Our totals have dropped.

Dropped to 40” this run. I’d probably be happy with 10”

[Winterdog]

Sorry Jake...Our totals have dropped.

35” is marginal but I guess I’ll take it. I misread the number. It’s 25”. Meh

[snow_wizard]

It's connected at day 7.  Very promising.

[ShawniganLake]

Day 7

 

Better

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looking good!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Dang. Nope

 

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 40” this run. I’d probably be happy with 10”

 

It usually takes the models showing ridiculous totals for us to end up with a high chance of accumulating snow.  Looks like we have checked that box.

[snow_wizard]

Day 8 Dang. Nope

 

 

I'd call it ok.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

January is the month for long lived cold waves. That is why I have lamented the January doldrums we have been in for so long. 2 to 3 week and sometimes 4 week cold spells have happened in January. 2 weeks is actually realistic.

Once the Arctic floodgates of heaven open, we will be in it for the long haul. Going to be one heck of a finish to Winter!

[TT-SEA]

00z Euro still hinting at some EPSL snow in about a week.

 

 

Its from a c-zone moving that moves off to the northeast on Wednesday morning.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That EC run felt closer to what we want to see.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9  There we go. That's a bit better

 

[snow_wizard]

The Euro is at least better.  A little more blocky looking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 9  There we go. That's a bit better

 

 

 

See, don't give up so easy!

[Gradient Keeper]

Now hopefully it tilts east.. So I see the GFS Op is just a bit quicker with the pattern progressing to the block setting up and beginning to pivot/tilt with heights building over Western Alaska. 00z GEM Op tonight was very similar to this.

[MossMan]

They need snow, stat!

https://komonews.com/news/local/summit-at-snoqualmie-closes-slopes-on-new-years-day-due-to-low-snowpack

[Gradient Keeper]

See, don't give up so easy!

I didn't. My "nope" was for that particular frame I posted.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

They're gonna cave to the GFS.

[snow_wizard]

At day 9 I like what is going on in the East WAY more than the previous Euro 0z run.  Much more favorable.

[TT-SEA]

At day 9 I like what is going on in the East WAY more than the previous Euro 0z run.  Much more favorable.

 

 

Totally different over Alaska on the ECMWF compared to the GFS at day 9.

[ShawniganLake]

Temps have fallen through the 40s here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Not there yet, but much closer than previous runs

 

[HighlandExperience]

They need snow, stat!

https://komonews.com/news/local/summit-at-snoqualmie-closes-slopes-on-new-years-day-due-to-low-snowpack

Snowing at all the passes right now. Thankfully

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think we are going to be alright. 

[Front Ranger]

Euro and CMC definitely did not cave tonight. They both continue to keep heights much lower over Alaska then the GFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

I see some signs the Euro may be caving to the GFS. Day 5-6 pattern develops over Gulf of Alaska. Cautiously optimistic!

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 30 minutes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 10 Not there yet, but much closer than previous runs

 

Yeah, getting closer now. The base ingredients are there.

[TT-SEA]

Day 10 Not there yet, but much closer than previous runs

 

 

 

The lack of a ridge over Alaska would mean no mechanism to force the cold air southward.   That results in a chilly pattern but not real cold. 

 

[snow_wizard]

Good greif!  The strongest low over the entire North Pacific on day 10 on this Euro run is 1005mb.  I didn't even think that was possible.  This could be a long lasting cold period when it finally sets in.

[kokaneekidz]

[Gradient Keeper]

The lack of a ridge over Alaska would mean no mechanism to force the cold air southward.

 

You think I didn't know that? c'mon... Lol No

[snow_wizard]

At day 10 you can see the piece of high pressure over the North Pole is linked to the Pacific high.  Huge potential here!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The lack of a ridge over Alaska would mean no mechanism to force the cold air southward.   That results in a chilly pattern but not real cold. 

 

 

Yes that's how it works Tim.

[snow_wizard]

At the very least it will get the snowpack back to normal with major accumulation above the 800 foot level. It is a start in the right direction

 

 

 

 

At this point I would call it an epic fail if that is all we got.