January 14-16 Major Winter Storm and Arctic Blast

[Black Hole]

Let's get a thread started for the next winter storm, which looks to be quite impactful for the southern Plains states, as well as the extremely cold airmass that will move in with it for much of the Plains. 

[Black Hole]

Here are some 24-hour snow maps for this one for all but the ukmet, which was less overall. 

[Black Hole]

Minimum low temperatures Tuesday (Monday Icon) with very widespread sub-zero readings. 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Minimum low temperatures Tuesday (Monday Icon) with very widespread sub-zero readings. 

Iowa Caucuses will be Brutal!  

[Black Hole]

ECMWF went big! All guidance looking good though for a major snow event with 20-1 ratios. Deep layer in the DGZ and isentropic lift up the frontal slope really does the job. 

[winterfreak]

Looks like a miss here. Good luck down there @Black Hole!

[Clinton]

EPS is looking good for you guys

[KTPmidMO]

Boy I swear, got missed by the storm last week, gonna get missed by the storm this week. Was hoping to cash in on this one but the trend for it looks like it may miss me to the south. What do I have to do?! Is there an Indian dance for snow? lol

[CentralNebWeather]

When we get through with the first system,  bitterly cold wind chills and snow chances. I’ve seen this setup overachieve in the past as disturbances come off the Rockies and move southeast. In the frigid air, it can put down several inches with minimal moisture. Had that type of pattern in February 2021 and had some of my deepest snow pack in recent history. 

[Andie]

I’m in the 0.4 range for “wintry mix”.  That’s okay. Texans can’t drive in this stuff.  I’m up for some snow on the grass and a cup of coffee though.  
Low Sunday & Monday morning 12-13* in the DFW area. 
Wind 20 mph + or -, so windchill should be pushing zero.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, Andie said:

I’m in the 0.4 range for “wintry mix”.  That’s okay. Texans can’t drive in this stuff.  I’m up for some snow on the grass and a cup of coffee though.  
Low Sunday & Monday morning 12-13* in the DFW area. 
Wind 20 mph + or -, so windchill should be pushing zero.

 

That is brutal for your area. Here is what we’re going to deal with. Will rival February of 2021. Lowest windchill for me was -42. 

[Clinton]

ICON and GFS coming in juicy tonight for Oklahoma, even giving some wintery precip to @Iceresistance and @Andie

ICON

GFS

[winterfreak]

OKC, Tulsa, and Little Rock will end up with more snow than here from this pattern

[Clinton]

CMC also snowy from I-70 on south

[Black Hole]

This is looking like the perfect sounding to really maximize snow ratios here. The entire column is between -10 and -20C (up through 500 hPa), saturated, and with good lift. The Kuchara algorithm has been spitting out 20-1 ratios, but I think it could potentially be even higher. 

The raw output for QPF has mostly been near 0.4 to 0.5", which is why the Kuchera has been putting out 8-11". If ratios are even higher, look out! 

[Andie]

It looks like I could get 0.25-0.5” sleet.  
Say it ain’t so.  This puts my husband on ice. 

[hawkstwelve]

I've been so focused on the snow I haven't been paying as much attention to the bitter air coming down this weekend.

Both the 00z GFS and CMC show that we will cross below zero wind chills tonight and not return above zero until next Wednesday, where we spend a few hours with above zero wind chills before we drop right back down into the negatives again through day 10. CMC bottoms out at an incredible -47 on Sunday AM and the GFS at -41. The coldest we had last season was around -32 and that was cold enough to be difficult to breathe. This is another 10+ degrees colder than that. Wow. 

Looks like we need to get some board games and movies ready and just hunker in for a bit. 

[Grizzcoat]

Love that you peeps in OK are getting what you want!!! It's difficult even here in IA to cash in on big time snows (been lucky lately) but so many things have to go just right.

Congrats-

Not often does one get to use a TX base map for a snow event!!! 06Z GFS hot off the press.

[Clinton]

All major models are showing a 1-2 punch with this system that really puts the snow down.  To the east it lays down some nice snow for @Timmy Supercell

[tStacsh]

After the storm, this arctic blast is going to pile up snow around my area.   The ratios will be extremely high as well.   22.3 inches on this map in my backyard, but my local NWS is talking up to 3 feet in spots.  All the sudden I may be at average snowfall for the winter.

[WinterSquall23]

The way this storms going for mby , at least we have some lake effect to rely on after that. Like the kicker of a football team when we don’t score. At least we can try for a field goal!  Note mby maybe the battle ground for the warm/cold air.  Something about living close to the M59 gives us an edge plus the elevation lift there.  Congrats to the rest that cash in on this. ! 

[Clinton]

12z ICON is putting together a pretty nice snow event, even 4 to 5 inch amounts up to mby.

[Clinton]

12z GFS drier up north which makes since with how cold it will be.

Adding 2nd wave

[Clinton]

12z CMC 

 

[KTPmidMO]

What's the chance of this coming back north a bit? I know models this year have trended north 3-4 days prior to the storms so wonder if this will do the same?

I just really want to cash in on one of these storms. Not getting in on the first 2 so hoping for a north trend at this point.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

What's the chance of this coming back north a bit? I know models this year have trended north 3-4 days prior to the storms so wonder if this will do the same?

I just really want to cash in on one of these storms. Not getting in on the first 2 so hoping for a north trend at this poiI nt.

Not real good imo due to the extremely cold and dry air but it should be watched. We could see a stronger system and that would help.  You may get a few inches out of the storm tomorrow and this one as it looks now.

[Black Hole]

Models just trending weaker in general with this system. Ensemble means generally in the 0.2 to 0.25" range. Even with incredible snow ratios that's just hard to do a lot with. ECMWF was awful on the 12z run with about 2", latest 18Z GFS was still good with 8". I expect some continued volatility since the shortwave in question is still in a data void. 

[Black Hole]

For the 00z models so far (Kuchara algorithm) I am shown to get 1" CMC, 4-5" GFS and ICON. Amounts still trending down...

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

For the 00z models so far (Kuchara algorithm) I am shown to get 1" CMC, 4-5" GFS and ICON. Amounts still trending down...

Yeah, you covered it well. One of the most sudden model disappointments of all time here. What a difference 12 hours makes. 

[Clinton]

Bastardi believes the Euro is having trouble with this storm and given how poor the Euro has done lately he's probably right.  The Euro takes some of the energy up around the lakes where as the GFS and CMC don't.  

IMO the plains look like the beginning of what will become a big storm for the NE.  Wherever this storm tracks should get a nice snow.  This mornings GEFS paints a better picture.

[Clinton]

Looks like this mornings Euro is trying to put together a little bit more of a storm.   It puts the energy together further east.

[Black Hole]

As @Clinton noted, GEFS did go back up a bit for my part of the world, but the EPS went down further. There is almost no snow at all now. 

Some other models don't look too bad, keep the hope alive @OKwx2k4!

UKMET last night was best, and this is just a 10-1 ratio.

ICON this morning was ok:

GFS was good:

ECMWF remained poor:

 

[Black Hole]

The main forecast problem remains that this is a shearing trough over the open ocean right now with little data. I expect that there will still be some last minute forecast adjustments as it comes inland tomorrow afternoon and evening in the PNW. One last chance to try and save this storm!

[ATW]

On 1/10/2024 at 10:11 PM, winterfreak said:

OKC, Tulsa, and Little Rock will end up with more snow than here from this pattern

I knew we’d pay for Jan-Mar of 2022 since we were hit with several storms during that time frame. Someone went and stole the “Oma Dome” and drug it down here.

[ATW]

On 1/10/2024 at 10:23 PM, Clinton said:

CMC also snowy from I-70 on south

There’s been a tendency for storms to trend north this winter but with such cold air in place that would be doubtful.

[ATW]

On 1/11/2024 at 4:41 AM, Clinton said:

All major models are showing a 1-2 punch with this system that really puts the snow down.  To the east it lays down some nice snow for @Timmy Supercell

It’s that second wave that looks more promising to just catch us. It looks a little farther north. It wouldn’t take much moisture to get a couple of inches. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, ATW said:

It’s that second wave that looks more promising to just catch us. It looks a little farther north. It wouldn’t take much moisture to get a couple of inches. 

Ratios would be extremely high.  Somewhere between 20/30:1

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Looks like this mornings Euro is trying to put together a little bit more of a storm.   It puts the energy together further east.

Oops! Never mind. I didn’t look at the most recent models. 

[KTPmidMO]

1 hour ago, ATW said:

There’s been a tendency for storms to trend north this winter but with such cold air in place that would be doubtful.

That's what I'm hoping. NAM and NAM 3km seem to be further north with it. The NAM has been spot on with these last 2 storms. It was the one that had the further north solution from the beginning and we all thought it was drunk only to prove us wrong in the end. So is the further north solution that the NAM is showing gonna happen and all other models will play catch up again? I don't know but that's my hope right now. lol

[Tom]

12z GFS looks great for OK peeps! @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole