February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

Hey it's me, the inversion and fog hater. Does anyone know when inversion season ends. Thanks.

It’s basically over already…but doesn’t mean we won’t occasionally get some fog and cloudy days. 

[westcoastexpat]

Update from NWS for Western WA:

"The air mass will remain cool and showery Sunday night and Monday with low snow levels as an upper level trough shifts down from B.C. Snow levels are low enough for a mix of rain/snow across the lowlands but for the most part significant impacts are not expected. The flow will remain onshore which will keep surface temperatures above freezing (helping to mitigate accumulating snow). But one area to watch would be the East Puget Sound Lowlands near the Cascades (like North Bend) where heavier showers or convergence zone showers could lead to some minor accumulations. At the coast, there's a chance of thunderstorms too where instability in the greatest.

Another wet/active period of
weather is slated for Tuesday and Wednesday with the next strong Pacific storm system moving in. Snow levels remain low Tuesday morning with another threat of rain/snow mix in the lowlands. However, significant/widespread lowland snow accumulations are not expected"

[Dave]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s basically over already…but doesn’t mean we won’t occasionally get some fog and cloudy days. 

I know. I just like to complain. It is foggy out right now and I'm not impressed. Thankfully, I can tell that the fog layer is shallow. Looking forward to some sunny skies in a couple of hours. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

56 minutes ago, Dave said:

Hey it's me, the inversion and fog hater. Does anyone know when inversion season ends. Thanks.

Never. You get radiation fog in the winter and marine layer fog in the summer.

[Eugene-5SW]

43 minutes ago, Dave said:

I know. I just like to complain. It is foggy out right now and I'm not impressed. Thankfully, I can tell that the fog layer is shallow. Looking forward to some sunny skies in a couple of hours. 

Sunny here, just down the road and up the hill from you. Should be sunny there soon, if it's not already.

It was an unusually foggy winter even by Eugene standards. I'm thinking it should be done except a little ground fog on still mornings like this.

[TT-SEA]

Just a bit of a difference between the GEM and the GFS.    I think the issue is that the GFS assumes 36-40 degrees means accumulating snow and the GEM does not.   They agree well on the overall pattern over the next week.  

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a bit of a difference between the GEM and the GFS.    I think the issue is that the GFS assumes 36-40 degrees means accumulating snow and the GEM does not.   They agree well on the overall pattern over the next week.  

Sadly gem is probably more realistic. It also took Fife into account

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a bit of a difference between the GEM and the GFS.    I think the issue is that the GFS assumes 36-40 degrees means accumulating snow and the GEM does not.   They agree well on the overall pattern over the next week.  

Gem used to have nothing 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gem used to have nothing 

Pretty much still does... and its already taken into account the trough digging down closer to the coast.   No idea if its right because the ECMWF has way more snow.  

[T-Town]

13 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Sadly gem is probably more realistic. It also took Fife into account

The snow hole is almost perfectly aligned north-south with the Tacoma city limits. Just gotta keep telling myself I don’t care, it’s fine, glad everyone else gets snow, good for them….

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a lot of snow above 1500’ on these runs!

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The snow hole is almost perfectly aligned north-south with the Tacoma city limits. Just gotta keep telling myself I don’t care, it’s fine, glad everyone else gets snow, good for them….

The matrix always takes those parameters into account. 

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The snow hole is almost perfectly aligned north-south with the Tacoma city limits. Just gotta keep telling myself I don’t care, it’s fine, glad everyone else gets snow, good for them….

I think a lot of people expecting to see snow along the I-5 corridor are going to be pretty disappointed when it doesn’t pan out. The typical spots will probably get some but most people probably won’t see more than some flakes mixed in with the rain. 

[Weiner Warrior]

It's going to be a blizzard out there. Heading to Lowes and the grocery store to stock up on supplies. Probably will randomly whisper to everyone I pass at both stores... "It's going to snow real hard"

[Weiner Warrior]

Looks a little light to me.. I think we'll get more than this.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Could easily be a snow, melt, more snow, melt situation where not much accumulates. That's my best (sad) guess. It's going to be really hard to thread that needle over and over again to get those 10 day totals. Could be a string of delays for schools without any cancelations but I'm thinking that's best case scenario. Most likely it's an accumulating during heavy showers and melting immediately afterwards thing. It's not necessarily that the ground is too warm so much as being too close to the edge.

 

Mountains.should do great though so that is a good thing!

[ShawniganLake]

What I really want to know is “ did Mark Nelsen put his winter tires back on?”

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Could easily be a snow, melt, more snow, melt situation where not much accumulates. That's my best (sad) guess. It's going to be really hard to thread that needle over and over again to get those 10 day totals. Could be a string of delays for schools without any cancelations but I'm thinking that's best case scenario. Most likely it's an accumulating during heavy showers and melting immediately afterwards thing. It's not necessarily that the ground is too warm so much as being too close to the edge.

 

Mountains.should do great though so that is a good thing!

Unless you have some elevation or score in a potential CZ on Monday, it looks like what you’re describing for most of the lowlands. 

[T-Town]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think a lot of people expecting to see snow along the I-5 corridor are going to be pretty disappointed when it doesn’t pan out. The typical spots will probably get some but most people probably won’t see more than some flakes mixed in with the rain. 

I know. And honestly Im ready to turn the page to spring. But it is a little annoying to be in the only snowless spot on the map while we hope for one last shot of winter. 

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

What I really want to know is “ did Mark Nelsen put his winter tires back on?”

No, he said he might get a slushy inch, but not enough to worry about. 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The CLIFF model is the best out there! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Really need that trough to continue to begin its digging further east. Getting closer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Five years ago today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 years ago today!

[TacomaWx]

11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I know. And honestly Im ready to turn the page to spring. But it is a little annoying to be in the only snowless spot on the map while we hope for one last shot of winter. 

 yeah, wish things had worked out better this winter but some years just suck in the snow department. This just seems like a week of kitsap and 500’ snow levels coming up. I don’t think many places being shown to get lowland snow on these snow maps will either. Even the vaunted euro seems to really struggle in marginal snow situations nowadays. It does fine with non marginal temps but this set up it waaaay overdoes snow. 

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The CLIFF model is the best out there! 

Can’t believe you took Your Christmas lights down.  Unless it was part of a scheme to make it snow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a lot of snow above 1500’ on these runs!

Above 1500 in Oregon and 500-1000 in Washington.  Snow levels will dip at night obviously. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

37 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think a lot of people expecting to see snow along the I-5 corridor are going to be pretty disappointed when it doesn’t pan out. The typical spots will probably get some but most people probably won’t see more than some flakes mixed in with the rain. 

You might be surprised youngster! Chilly airmass heading into the area and snow levels will be near zero at times especially at night.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like some seasonably cool weather coming up for here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

 yeah, wish things had worked out better this winter but some years just suck in the snow department. This just seems like a week of kitsap and 500’ snow levels coming up. I don’t think many places being shown to get lowland snow on these snow maps will either. Even the vaunted euro seems to really struggle in marginal snow situations nowadays. It does fine with non marginal temps but this set up it waaaay overdoes snow. 

I have personally seen a pattern like this deliver snow to sea level, inches. Sub 522 thickness and -6 -8 850's can and has got it done before with onshore flow. And I'm not just talking kitsap. 

Normally what needs to happen is a larger area of organized precip will develop that wasn't caught on models and there's your snow event.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like some seasonably cool weather coming up for here.

Isn't this close to you??

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You might be surprised youngster! Chilly airmass heading into the area and snow levels will be near zero at times especially at night.

Some other people might be but if the models are to be trusted we’re not in a favorable spot at all. The euro is showing much more than reality…same thing happened at this time last year. I’ve lost a lot of faith in the euro on 33-36 degrees snowfall set ups. 

[Slushy Inch]

Little shift west on Euro should help boost shower activity 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I got trashed on the local Facebook page this morning for saying we could get 1-2” Monday/Tuesday above 1500’. Folks are not buying it!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Isn't this close to you??

Don't jinx it XD

[SnowWillarrive]

The phantom snow outputs on these maps have gotten comical the past several years. 

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I got trashed on the local Facebook page this morning for saying we could get 1-2” Monday/Tuesday above 1500’. Folks are not buying it!

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I got trashed on the local Facebook page this morning for saying we could get 1-2” Monday/Tuesday above 1500’. Folks are not buying it!

What do you mean trashed? They don't want it to snow?

[SnowWillarrive]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I got trashed on the local Facebook page this morning for saying we could get 1-2” Monday/Tuesday above 1500’. Folks are not buying it!

lol you live above 1,000 feet. Not exactly an epic feat to get snow. That’s just normal winter around here.