March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

6z gfs cool pattern.

A lot of undercutting in the long range. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Rain with a Goa ridge that doesn’t retrograde far enough west would be odd.

I am referring more to a pattern evolution like ECMWF AI version has been showing later in the runs... that could lead to a rainy pattern. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gusty winds last night. Branch went through my brothers car window in Salem. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy rain with some wet snow mixing in now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Sunday and Monday look to be the best days for 70-burgers in about a week. Maybe even some mid-70’s!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

DST sucks, 12z gfs isn't done loading yet.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sunday and Monday look to be the best days for 70-burgers in about a week. Maybe even some mid-70’s!

12Z GFS still breaks down the ridge quickly by Monday... as a results of a little system getting trapped under the ridge.  Like a pebble thrown into a pond... that leads to a totally different evolution afterwards.   But the 12Z GEM is much more solid with the ridge in that period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sunday and Monday look to be the best days for 70-burgers in about a week. Maybe even some mid-70’s!

Hopefully enough time for this to get watered down. Mark Nelsen thinks we'll be in the 70s by Thursday, he's going with about a week of 70 degree weather, a Tim-tastic wishcast.

[TT-SEA]

Comparison of 12Z GFS and 12Z GEM at day 10.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hopefully enough time for this to get watered down. Mark Nelsen thinks we'll be in the 70s by Thursday, he's going with about a week of 70 degree weather, a Tim-tastic wishcast.

No way Thursday is that warm... maybe not even Friday.   If I had to bet I would say only 2 days touching 70.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Comparison of 12Z GFS and 12Z GEM at day 10.

GEM looks like it's gonna get undercut. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM looks like it's gonna get undercut. 

Not very quickly.   Pretty stable at that time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not very quickly.   Pretty stable at that time.

Per usual I think I'll ride with team GFS 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I'm not worried about the snowpack, this weather is going to be GREAT. We have a couple feet coming to the Oregon cascades the next few days, and there's no chance this dry/warm period will melt more than 1½-2½ feet of snow. We'll just be back to the snowpack we were at a couple days ago, which is above average. 

Different story in Washington though, you guys NEED more snow. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

37 and wet currently, 5:30 am high of 38, 9 am low of 36. This weather sucks.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Per usual I think I'll ride with team GFS 

Always good for wishcasting. 

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane calls it.  winter done.  pack it in boys.  winter was officially a Dud

 

 

 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NWS Spokane calls it.  winter done.  pack it in boys.  winter was officially a Dud

 

 

 

You’ve literally been saying winter is done all winter long 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You’ve literally been saying winter is done all winter long 

This. Hopefully anyone who’s been paying attention gets the humor in the sad reacts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Always good for wishcasting. 

Worked out pretty well this past week or two. 

[Phishy Wx]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You’ve literally been saying winter is done all winter long 

kinda felt that way other than a week in January 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF doesn't crash the ridge like the GFS but is definitely different than its 00Z run at the end.    12Z run shows 5 or 6 days sunny and relatively warm days which will probably be the extent of it based on climo.    Question is does it crash to cold or just back to normal with rain returning.

 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty stunning how awful the models have been with the precip this weekend.  SEA has only had .05 and I've had  .10.  

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF doesn't crash the ridge like the GFS but is definitely different than its 00Z run at the end.    12Z run shows 5 or 6 days sunny and relatively warm days which will probably be the extent of it based on climo.    Question is does it crash to cold or just back to normal with rain returning.

 

Quite a train wreck with a ton of above normal heights there.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty stunning how awful the models have been with the precip this weekend.  SEA has only had .05 and I've had  .10.  

They just haven’t caught up with the fact that we are now living in the steppes of Mongolia  

[TT-SEA]

Control run goes crazy after 300 hours.   Totally different than 00Z run.    But the control run is usually doing crazy things in the long range.

[MossMan]

Driveway snow pile update! 
Sprinkles and 44 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS also more troughy in the long range... below normal heights across most of the CONUS.

[TT-SEA]

Arctic air at the doorstep at the end of the control run.   Winter is just getting started.   Spokane NWS will regret their post.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely some positive trends today! 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

NWS Spokane calls it.  winter done.  pack it in boys.  winter was officially a Dud

 

 

 

Not really IMO.  The East Slopes of the Cascades actually had a colder than normal January (even below the old normal) and this recent run of cold was pretty noteworthy.

[snow_wizard]

42 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

They just haven’t caught up with the fact that we are now living in the steppes of Mongolia  

Not sure where this came from.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Not sure where this came from.

That silly map from yesterday still has square peg/round hole climo comparisons fresh in my mind.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That silly map from yesterday still has square peg/round hole climo comparisons fresh in my mind.

I think the area they had labeled as Mongolia might have been pretty close to reality.  Some of them were kind of crazy though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think the area they had labeled as Mongolia might have been pretty close to reality.  Some of them were kind of crazy though.

Eastern Montana gets pretty cold, but even they would have trouble competing with Mongolia. Look up the climate for Ulaanbaatar. 

[Phishy Wx]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Arctic air at the doorstep at the end of the control run.   Winter is just getting started.   Spokane NWS will regret their post.

they're certainly worried about a control run 2 weeks out

[Phishy Wx]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not really IMO.  The East Slopes of the Cascades actually had a colder than normal January (even below the old normal) and this recent run of cold was pretty noteworthy.

well obviously they're referring to our forecasting area but I'm guessing you could get the data they used for that plot for Seattle too if you wanted to

[Phishy Wx]

a deeper look

 

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

Seattle technically had a 'Moderate' winter according to their data

[Cascadia_Wx]

Twitter!!