March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

[Hoosier]

Tomorrow is looking potentially nasty in terms of severe wx, and if model trends of a farther northwest low track are right, the risk area will have to be expanded northward.  

[Iceresistance]

MODERATE RISK FOR OKLAHOMA

[Timmy Supercell]

7 hours ago, Clinton said:

The SPC has shifted the enhanced risk NW back over my area today.  3km NAM and HRRR both showing supercells in my area around 5 pm. I wouldn't be surprised if there's not an upgrade to a moderate risk from mby back into central Oklahoma later today.

The GFS did a pretty good job showing this system phasing with the northern stream as it lifts toward the Lakes this could turn into a nice spring snowstorm for Ill, Wisc, and Mich.  

 

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the
   southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a
   small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail, damaging
   winds, and tornadoes (some strong) are possible. The severe threat
   will peak this afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the
   greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the
   evening/overnight period.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will shift east from
   the Southwest to the central Plains today. A mid-level shortwave
   trough, currently rounding the base of the large scale trough, will
   advance quickly northeast through the day today within a strong
   mid-level jet. This strong flow will overspread a broad, very moist
   warm sector and lead to severe weather across a large portion of the
   Southern Plains into the Midwest.

   A surface low is present across eastern Colorado this morning with a
   stationary front extending eastward across Kansas and Missouri and
   into the Ohio Valley. This surface low will drift slowly east
   through the day and the front is expected to lift north across
   Missouri as a warm front during the afternoon. 

   ...North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and
   the Ozarks...
   Mid 60s dewpoints are expected across much of the warm sector east
   of the dryline by mid-day today with temperatures warming into the
   70s to low 80s. Moderate to strong instability is expected to
   develop by the time ascent associated with the approaching trough
   overspreads the dryline. Once this occurs, expect rapid storm
   development along the dryline from southern Kansas to north Texas.
   Very strong shear, and mostly straight hodographs will support
   splitting supercells initially capable of large to potentially giant
   hail across a broad region from southwest Missouri to north Texas.
   Storm evolution off the dryline is still somewhat uncertain. Some
   guidance depicts more discrete development off the dryline and the
   potential for multiple rounds of supercells, while other CAM
   guidance waits until closer to 00Z to convect and leads to upscale
   growth and significant storm interaction within the first few hours.
   This evolution will have a significant impact on the longevity of
   the giant hail threat, but even with a messy storm mode, very large
   hail will remain a threat.

   Low-level shear is expected to be very weak for much of the day,
   which will limit the tornado threat. However, by the evening, the
   low-level jet is expected to strengthen with the ejecting wave and
   low-level shear will improve. The most favorable hodographs are
   expected across northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and
   southwest/central Missouri in a region where mature supercells will
   likely be ongoing. Therefore, a more favorable period for tornadoes
   and potentially strong tornadoes may exist from 23-03Z as the
   low-level shear improves.  

   ...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois...
   At least isolated supercells are expected to develop along the warm
   front from northern Missouri into central Illinois this afternoon
   and evening. Strong instability and very strong shear will support
   large to very large hail. In addition, storm motion is expected to
   be parallel to the surface front. Therefore, any supercells which
   can latch onto the warm front will have a higher tornado threat.
   However, more isolated storm coverage and uncertainty regarding
   storm evolution preclude higher tornado probabilities in this
   region. 

   Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, storms from the
   west will move into the region with a threat for large hail, a few
   tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. 

   ...Ohio River Vicinity...
   Supercells from Illinois may continue east along the warm front into
   the evening across southern Indiana and potentially southern Ohio.
   Additional storms may also develop along this frontal zone with a
   primary threat of large hail. Weaker instability/shear should limit
   the overall threat from these storms compared to farther west.
   However, moderate instability and strong shear will support a threat
   for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. 

   Overnight, a cluster of storms is expected to approach from the
   west. The overnight environment will continue to support a severe
   threat with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear in excess of 50
   knots. There is still considerable uncertainty how this cluster will
   evolve. A cluster of supercells would pose a threat for all severe
   weather hazards, while a more organized MCS may support a greater
   severe wind and QLCS tornado threat. 

   ...Central Texas...
   Strong instability is expected to develop ahead of a dryline across
   central Texas this afternoon. Confluence along the dryline and weak
   height falls should provide ample support for isolated to scattered
   storm development. Any storms which develop will be capable of very
   large to giant hail, given very strong instability and shear an
   expected supercellular storm mode.

 

 

A Moderate Risk was just placed in central/eastern Oklahoma!

Is this mid-day light rain/cloud gonna clear in these areas? Both here and there looks like we're socked in, and this has been occurring since I moved here. Stuff is thinning but I haven't seen the sun shining all day.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

A Moderate Risk was just placed in central/eastern Oklahoma!

Is this mid-day light rain/cloud gonna clear in these areas? Both here and there looks like we're socked in, and this has been occurring since I moved here. Stuff is thinning but I haven't seen the sun shining all day.

Enhanced risk also moved to include KC.

[Hawkeye]

Models had been showing some good rain moving across my area today, but that appears to have crapped out.  I have to hope the main low can throw precip far enough nw to give me something.

[Clinton]

The warm front across my area may be a focal point tonight. 

@ReedTimmerUSA

Follow

 

UPDATE: I see three different corridors of TORNADO POTENTIAL: 1. central/northern OK through southeastern KS into southwestern MO along southern surface low track. 2. Red River/southern OK at the nose of expanding low-level jet 3. warm frontal zone along I-70 in Missouri

[Bryan1117]

24 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models had been showing some good rain moving across my area today, but that appears to have crapped out.  I have to hope the main low can throw precip far enough nw to give me something.

Nothing but drizzle and light showers here so far, just enough to wet the pavement… it looks like we are going to get stuck right between the two decent precipitation areas from this system, again.

[Timmy Supercell]

70 and sun is out finally. There should be plenty of time to energize this region for the incoming MCS that develops tonight. 

 

[bud2380]

12z model runs showing warning criteria snow for much of central and eastern Wisconsin.  They may get hammered tomorrow and Wednesday.  The storm even starts to throw snow back into eastern Iowa.  The GFS is the most aggressive.  Showing 10:1 maps just to illustrate snow potential, but actual accumulations would be considerably less. 

 

[bud2380]

Euro isn't too different.

 

Ditto Canadian

 

 

[Hoosier]

From this

 

To this

[Timmy Supercell]

At first I thought the Tuesday evening storms were supposed to weaken coming off tonight's activity. That Moderate in Ohio concerns late Tuesday storms.. so looking at 2 decent outbreaks of supercells potentially.

[Money]

Winter Storm Watch for Green Bay Area for 6-12 inches and 50 mph Winds

 

WIZ013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074-020400-
/O.NEW.KGRB.WS.A.0005.240402T1800Z-240403T1800Z/
Northern Marinette County-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-
Shawano-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-Southern Oconto
County-
Including the cities of Waupaca, Brillion, Harmony, Fish Creek,
Loomis, Wautoma, Neenah, Lakewood, Shawano, Kewaunee, Oconto,
Peshtigo, Chilton, Little Suamico, Manitowoc, High Falls
Reservoir, Redgranite, Luxemburg, Middle Inlet, Mountain,
Townsend, Niagara, New London, Porterfield, Crivitz, New
Holstein, Wausaukee, Appleton, Pensaukee, Clintonville, Green
Bay, Neopit, Oshkosh, Sobieski, Brookside, Sister Bay, Two
Rivers, Menasha, Sturgeon Bay, and Keshena
234 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and strong winds possible. Minor blowing and
  drifting snow.  Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches
  possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, and northeast Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
  down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
  could be very difficult.  Aviation travel may see delays. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and
  Wednesday morning

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR has shifted the heavier rain back southeast, out of my yard again.  I'm not surprised.  All the big convection from Missouri through Illinois will probably pull the whole thing e/se.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

A Moderate Risk was just placed in central/eastern Oklahoma!

Is this mid-day light rain/cloud gonna clear in these areas? Both here and there looks like we're socked in, and this has been occurring since I moved here. Stuff is thinning but I haven't seen the sun shining all day.

This type of setup is less reliant on insolation/sfc heating than the kinematic/forced components, relatively speaking. If you’re near/south of the warm front, you’re in the game. NW flow aloft with low level WAA is notorious for nocturnal severe, both super-cellular and MCS-type variety.

Generally speaking, SBCAPE/surface heating becomes more important later in May into the summer months. But of course it’s not always the case..each situation is unique to some degree.

[Clinton]

Tornado watch in effect until 11.  Hi res models indicating 1 to 3 inches if rain also.

 

[Clinton]

The tornado watch for my area has been canceled. Moderate rain has stabilized the air and temps are in the upper 60s. I'm hoping for at least an inch of rain out of this system. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Another cooldown on the way after the storms, even some nighttime snow. 

[Madtown]

Looks like things might get a little interesting even up this way. SNOWY WISCO

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Another cooldown on the way after the storms, even some nighttime snow. 

Welcome to spring in the east.

Moderate risk for you today!  

[Clinton]

.60 of rain fell here yesterday and overnight, far less than I had hoped but better than nothing.  Some aditional rain moving in this morning. 

[Hawkeye]

It appears there could be a swath of 2" of precip from Iowa City northeastward, with a sharp edge to the heavier precip near Cedar Rapids.  1" would be nice.

[bud2380]

GfS showing stupid amounts of snow. 
 

[Money]

Winter storm warning tonight for 4-8 with storm totals of 8-14 by Wednesday night

Should be interesting 

[Timmy Supercell]

Already warming up and its only been light for an hour. 69, and a MCS is approaching! There was a low of 58 at the airport but it must've lasted 5 minutes. Well here we are! They're holding onto the Moderate Risk. Even if my county escapes tornadoes today, I think I will still end up with power outages and some hail out of this. 

[Black Hole]

Nothing severe in Tulsa yesterday, though there was a tornado and some hail damage yesterday about an hour north of town. We got a good squall when the front came through and I had 1.59" at my house. A few way too close lightning strikes too

Storm Video I Took

If you watch that, there was a huge boom right at the end. 

[Madtown]

Snow breaking out up here already!

[bud2380]

HRRR continues to show that rain will change to snow here.  And although it will likely be hard to accumulate, it should come down pretty good for a bit.

 

[Money]

NAM doubled the snow amounts from last run 

[Hawkeye]

Timmy Supercell had a nasty line move through his town a couple hours ago.  An automated station not too far away recorded a 90 mph wind gust.

[bud2380]

Snowing good over by Des Moines. Visibility in Altoona is dropping.  

 

https://who13.com/skycams/

[Madtown]

Gfs has heavy snow back down into IA now!

[bud2380]

Impressive rain totals so far near Iowa City and surrounding areas.  Not quite as much in my backyard.

 

[bud2380]

Well the GFS shows 12.6" of snow falling in Iowa City by 1pm.  Hard to imagine how a model could be so far off.  That would mean 6" per hour starting right now to hit this mark.  

 

[Hawkeye]

The rain is beginning to mix.  Radar shows the switch to snow on my door step.  I've received 0.76" since midnight.  Iowa City got a 1" head start on CR.

[bud2380]

Snow mixing in here as well on the very SW side of CR.  

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Timmy Supercell had a nasty line move through his town a couple hours ago.  An automated station not too far away recorded a 90 mph wind gust.

Hope he’s alright, haven’t seen him online since it passed thru.

[Phil]

Looks like the wind core went through the south side of Ashland. Gusts to 92mph and 102mph at two different stations.

[Hoosier]

There have been a couple tornado touchdowns in northeast IL.  That area was not even in the 2% tornado area.

[Hawkeye]

I got a couple tenths of an inch of snow, but the heavier precip moved out before the cold air moved in.  The midday timing didn't help.