May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[Cascadia_Wx]

I’m trying not to focus too hard on the perma ridging being advertised in the long range and remind myself we are still in for a fun weather ride the next week or so.

[bainbridgekid]

Has to be overdone, but Saturday is about as cold as a May day could possibly be on the 12z GFS. 

2pm temps of 39 in Longview, 41 in Portland and 42 in Tacoma would be beyond absurd.

 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m trying not to focus too hard on the perma ridging being advertised in the long range and remind myself we are still in for a fun weather ride the next week or so.

By the time advertised ridging shows up (if indeed it does), it will have been a good 2+ weeks of solidly below normal temps and well above average precip. 

Healthy spring. Assuming the period of ridging does materialize, 2024 will likely end up as the most balanced overall spring for the region since at least 2013...maybe even 2003.

[Phil]

Nearing 90°F by midday again. The mid-May pattern change had better verify, for the sake of my mental health. 

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

By the time advertised ridging shows up (if indeed it does), it will have been a good 2+ weeks of solidly below normal temps and well above average precip. 

Healthy spring. Assuming the period of ridging does materialize, 2024 will likely end up as the most balanced overall spring for the region since at least 2013...maybe even 2003.

None of that is true for Washington or British Columbia. 

[TT-SEA]

37 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Has to be overdone, but Saturday is about as cold as a May day could possibly be on the 12z GFS. 

2pm temps of 39 in Longview, 41 in Portland and 42 in Tacoma would be beyond absurd.

 

Disgusting.    ECMWF shows 50 in Seattle that day so a little warmer but still stupid cold and definitely not a boating day.

Good news is that the rest of ECMWF run is beautiful so much warmer weather is ahead finally!

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Disgusting.    ECMWF shows 50 in Seattle that day so a little warmer but still stupid cold and definitely not a boating day.

Good news is that the rest of ECMWF run is beautiful so much warmer weather is ahead finally!

Luckily my friends' boats I'll be on have large indoor areas, but there are definitely going to be a lot of unhappy, uncomfortable people out on the water that day. This will be my third opening day I've been too and it's been chilly and cloudy every time.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Luckily my friends' boats I'll be on have large indoor areas, but there are definitely going to be a lot of unhappy, uncomfortable people out on the water that day. This will be my third opening day I've been too and it's been chilly and cloudy every time.

Is there some sort of law saying people need to get on their boats that day? We’ve had nothing but long, warm summers lately so I’m sure there will be plenty more opportunities.

[TT-SEA]

Yes... there is a law.     

Hopefully Mother's Day weekend will be better for boating.  

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Luckily my friends' boats I'll be on have large indoor areas, but there are definitely going to be a lot of unhappy, uncomfortable people out on the water that day. This will be my third opening day I've been too and it's been chilly and cloudy every time.

I know the opening day is just a ceremonial thing but the first weekend in May is notoriously chilly and wet.   They should allow for rescheduling based on weather or just move it to mid May when the odds of nicer weather improve.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS shows a strong signal for warmth in the PNW and chilly weather across the central and eastern US next weekend.    

 

[MossMan]

Was very hard to leave Orondo this morning…Was absolutely perfect.
Not too shabby at home though! Hopefully the mice stay out of the boat for the few weeks before I get it in the water for the season. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z control run also in agreement so getting consistency now.  

[TT-SEA]

EPS is really nice in terms of a pattern change coming. 

 

[High Desert Mat?]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is really nice in terms of a pattern change coming. 

 

What a relief. Almost had a stroke. Thank god you posted it three different ways and times. 

[Omegaraptor]

Tim when the first warm EPS run shows up during a cool pattern in the PNW

 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

None of that is true for Washington or British Columbia. 

Meaning? Even if you don't get a ton of rain this weekend, models show enough over the next week that most locations should be close to normal in western WA for precip for the spring. And temps have been very close to normal.

 

Also, I said "most balanced for the region", not perfectly balanced for your backyard. If you can think of a spring since 2013 that has been more balanced for the region overall in terms of precip/temps, I'd love to hear it. Most have been stuck in lengthy, stagnant warm/dry or wet/cool patterns.

[Front Ranger]

46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know the opening day is just a ceremonial thing but the first weekend in May is notoriously chilly and wet.   They should allow for rescheduling based on weather or just move it to mid May when the odds of nicer weather improve.   

Eh, it's just been bad timing recently. Most of the first 10 days in May last year were dry/warm, same thing for 2021, 2020, and 2019.

[Meatyorologist]

Things look much greener today after the rain and cooler weather over the last week. Let's keep it going before more ridging shows up in around a week.

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Things look much greener today after the rain and cooler weather over the last week. Let's keep it going before more ridging shows up in around a week.

Things are greener every day right now because that's the way works at this time of year.   Things will get greener and trees will get fuller even faster when the warmer days arrive next week.   It's not like the warmer days will slow things down... just the opposite in May.   You are making it sound like the end of summer when the grass is brown and we get finally get rain. 

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Tim when the first warm EPS run shows up during a cool pattern in the PNW

 

Indeed.   Nice to see something different than deep blue over the PNW at the 500mb level.   

[Cold Snap]

Almost had a freeze this morning with a low of 33.

[bainbridgekid]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Is there some sort of law saying people need to get on their boats that day? We’ve had nothing but long, warm summers lately so I’m sure there will be plenty more opportunities.

It's the official opening day of boating season. Huge event with hundreds of boats all tied to a big log boom they put out in Lake Washington for it. Crew and sailboat races and a big boat parade. They do the same thing for Seafair.

https://visitseattle.org/events/opening-day-of-boating-season/#:~:text=5%2F4%2F2024 | Seattle Yacht Club&text=Opening Day%2C the official opening,Day Boat Parade on Saturday.

[Tyler Mode]

2 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

Has to be overdone, but Saturday is about as cold as a May day could possibly be on the 12z GFS. 

2pm temps of 39 in Longview, 41 in Portland and 42 in Tacoma would be beyond absurd.

 

I was just looking at that.  The Euro has temps in the low 40s too...

[BLI snowman]

 

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Things are greener every day right now because that's the way works at this time of year.   Things will get greener and trees will get fuller even faster when the warmer days arrive next week.   It's not like the warmer days will slow things down... just the opposite in May.   You are making it sound like the end of summer when the grass is brown and we get finally get rain. 

Things were already getting pretty brown here in Mays 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2021. Which is sort of just what happens when 80+ temps start becoming the norm and the rains shut off.

Edited May 2 by BLI snowman

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Things were already getting pretty brown here in Mays 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2021. Which is just what happens when 80+ temps start becoming the norm and the rains shut off.

We don't all live in the tropical rain forest of North Bend. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We don't all live in the tropical rain forest of North Bend. 

Even after 20 years the guy conveniently forgets on the regular that he gets 2-3x the rainfall that the rest of us get.

Edited May 2 by BLI snowman

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Things were already getting pretty brown here in Mays 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2021. Which is just what happens when 80+ temps start becoming the norm and the rains shut off.

Even last year things started browning up by mid-May. 

Edited May 2 by Cascadia_Wx

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even last year things started browning up by mid-May. 

Yeah, the wet April gave us an early boost but by the end of May that was pretty much ancient history.

Generally gonna need 2-3"+ of monthly precip and reasonable enough temps to maintain the soil moisture that's needed to really keep the green party going. At least that's what I've noticed in the years that have held steady well into June/the start of summer. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today has been absolutely lovely, btw. Soaking rain last night then brilliant sunshine with clouds at times today so far and a lush and blooming landscape. Temps moderate, in the upper 50s to around 60 at the moment. Gorgeous weather but we’re in a long wave troughy pattern so it doesn’t count.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Meaning? Even if you don't get a ton of rain this weekend, models show enough over the next week that most locations should be close to normal in western WA for precip for the spring. And temps have been very close to normal.

 

Also, I said "most balanced for the region", not perfectly balanced for your backyard. If you can think of a spring since 2013 that has been more balanced for the region overall in terms of precip/temps, I'd love to hear it. Most have been stuck in lengthy, stagnant warm/dry or wet/cool patterns.

Ok, I get what you’re saying, there hasn’t been much blocking this spring and we’ve had weak systems interspersed with nice weather and temperatures in the normal-ish range overall. That’s fair. 

I do think the rainfall deficit is a big deal — maybe Oregon gets close to normal after this big storm but Sea-Tac is about 5 inches short this spring and they are going to get maybe 1 inch in the next week unless the forecast changes. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 5/1/2024 at 11:30 AM, TT-SEA said:

Pattern change becoming more likely starting next week... 12Z EPS looks the same as previous runs.

 

22 hours ago, Phil said:

With the MJO transiting the W-Hem (and a *very* modest niño-lean still remaining in the system state), I’m optimistic we could pull off a couple weeks of western ridge/eastern trough (+TNH and/or +PNA) centered in the middle of the month. Though previous attempts at this have always wound up being cut short in some way or another, so my expectations are low.

Still, it’s the same reason I was optimistic about a cooler/wetter pattern a few weeks ago, which did come to fruition. The intraseasonal (MJO/CCKW) component of tropical forcing is operating cleanly and dominant over the (now collapsing) background state. I don’t think there will be any niño elements remaining during the next MJO transit in June, though.

Impressive to see it maintained so well on the EPS weeklies over a month out, regardless.

PDX had a warm spell peaking at 78 on April 2. Exactly 3 weeks later during a warm period it hit 78 again on April 23. We seem to sort of be in a 3 week cycle right now with ridging. So another 3 weeks would be centered on May 14. That would go in line with what you’re thinking with the MJO. 

[the_convergence_zone]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even last year things started browning up by mid-May. 

5 days in the 80s sent the grass into summer mode. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Ok, I get what you’re saying, there hasn’t been much blocking this spring and we’ve had weak systems interspersed with nice weather and temperatures in the normal-ish range overall. That’s fair. 

I do think the rainfall deficit is a big deal — maybe Oregon gets close to normal after this big storm but Sea-Tac is about 5 inches short this spring and they are going to get maybe 1 inch in the next week unless the forecast changes. 

But @TT-SEA says we have had TONS of rain. We all must be lying and crazy. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

5 days in the 80s sent the grass into summer mode. 

We had 4 out of 5 days in the 90s down here.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Warm.

[the_convergence_zone]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

But @TT-SEA says we have had TONS of rain. We all must be lying and crazy. 

I’ve had one decent soaking rain in the last 5 weeks. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Warm.

That’s the thing. Once we start getting weather like this these days we just never look back. I LOVE days like today in the spring. Partial sunshine, reasonable temps, and a recently watered landscape. Cant get much better.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s the thing. Once we start getting weather like this these days we just never look back. I LOVE days like today in the spring. Partial sunshine, reasonable temps, and a recently watered landscape. Cant get much better.

Not gunna lie, I'll love this warm day by the pool. But we just didn't get enough rain during the rainy season (even though it has been twice what we got last year), and as you say... once summer starts it doesn't end till mid September at best.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]