May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

46 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Things were already getting pretty brown here in Mays 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2021. Which is sort of just what happens when 80+ temps start becoming the norm and the rains shut off.

Not in Seattle and not on May 2nd.   

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

But @TT-SEA says we have had TONS of rain. We all must be lying and crazy. 

Its been drier than normal.   That is a fact.

But vegetation growth is going to explode even more with the warm weather next week.   Also a fact.   

[TT-SEA]

40 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Even after 20 years the guy conveniently forgets on the regular that he gets 2-3x the rainfall that the rest of us get.

Even here the grass turns dead brown (where its not watered) almost every summer.  

[Deweydog]

Gorgeous day.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not in Seattle and not on May 2nd.   

Neither of us live in Seattle, but I'd venture to guess that the story ended up being pretty similar there at some point during several of those Mays. I'm sure that some of our actual Seattle posters can speak to that.

Which is the whole point. It's not some inevitability that it's going to stay green and lush moving forward at this point of the year if the conditions don't allow for it. 

[DareDuck]

Love these rainy spring days on the desert. .3” of precip today and currently 49. Overall it’s been a very nice dynamic spring. A good mix of sunny days with fun storms in between. 

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Today has been absolutely lovely, btw. Soaking rain last night then brilliant sunshine with clouds at times today so far and a lush and blooming landscape. Temps moderate, in the upper 50s to around 60 at the moment. Gorgeous weather but we’re in a long wave troughy pattern so it doesn’t count.

Troughy days can be gorgeous too.   Yesterday was spectacular... so is today.   But its not going to be troughy all the time.    I love a sunny day after a rainfall in the warm season too.   It's even more special when it happens in the middle of summer.   

If you want this weather all summer then I would suggest Sitka or Juneau.   The climo reality is that Seattle and Portland average 200+ days a year without rain so climo says the day you are experiencing today is in the minority.  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Neither of us live in Seattle, but I'd venture to guess that the story ended up being pretty similar there at some point during several of those Mays. I'm sure that some of our actual Seattle posters can speak to that.

Which is the whole point. It's not some inevitability that it's going to stay green and lush moving forward at this point of the year if the conditions don't allow for it. 

Sure... I bet the 100 degree day in May 1983 did a number on the grass.   But we aren't there yet.  

[Tyler Mode]

12 AM temps Friday into Saturday...4 PM temps Saturday.  Most likely some midnight highs.

Edited May 2 by Tyler Mode
times

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even here the grass turns dead brown (where its not watered) almost every summer.  

Have you ever had a summer where it didn't go brown? It definitely still takes semi-consistent rainfall that soaks relatively deep into the soil. Which is why even on the coast the grass tends to be browning by August, even with the cooler temps and more regular marine layer drizzle.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure... I bet the 100 degree day in May 1983 did a number on the grass.   But we aren't there yet.  

As has been discussed, we've had a number of historically warm and dry Mays recently that have effectively spelt the beginning of our summer.  For our grass as well. You don't have to go back to 1983 since I'm pretty sure we've all witnessed it.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Have you ever had a summer where it didn't go brown? It definitely still takes semi-consistent rainfall that soaks relatively deep into the soil. Which is why even on the coast the grass tends to be browning by August, even with the cooler temps and more regular marine layer drizzle.

The greenest summer in our time here was 2019.   We had consistent rain all summer despite it still being generally warm.   

Even 2008, 2010, and 2011 turned brown by August,   But not 2019.   We never needed to use the sprinklers that summer.   Then you have 2022 when it was about as wet as it could be in the middle of June and could not keep up with watering by July into fall  

[YahRaEl]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure... I bet the 100 degree day in May 1983 did a number on the grass.   But we aren't there yet.  

Wtf 100° in May

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, YahRaEl said:

Wtf 100° in May

Bit of an exaggeration but it was close in places.   And then it was wet and cool all summer.  

[TT-SEA]

A stellar troughy day.   We don't need ridging to have beautiful weather.   But the ridging is still coming.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, YahRaEl said:

Wtf 100° in May

Aliens  

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Ok, I get what you’re saying, there hasn’t been much blocking this spring and we’ve had weak systems interspersed with nice weather and temperatures in the normal-ish range overall. That’s fair. 

I do think the rainfall deficit is a big deal — maybe Oregon gets close to normal after this big storm but Sea-Tac is about 5 inches short this spring and they are going to get maybe 1 inch in the next week unless the forecast changes. 

Yeah, at this point it's still looking like a somewhat drier than average spring, although that will improve over the next week.

5" below normal for SEA doesn't look right, though. I'm seeing them only about 1.5" below normal for the spring at this point - and didn't they miss out on recording a bunch of rain due to a sensor error with the big storm recently?

Regardless, most places from OLM south look to be near normal for this point in the spring within 5 days.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, at this point it's still looking like a somewhat drier than average spring, although that will improve over the next week.

5" below normal for SEA doesn't look right, though. I'm seeing them only about 1.5" below normal for the spring at this point - and didn't they miss out on recording a bunch of rain due to a sensor error with the big storm recently?

Regardless, most places from OLM south look to be near normal for this point in the spring within 5 days.

SEA did not report rain on 2 days in April when there was significant rain.  

Even with the missing data... SEA has had 30.55 inches of rain for the water year compared with 32.90 inches normally.   I don't think that is enough to be catastrophic.   

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Almost had a freeze this morning with a low of 33.

30 at Shelton and 32 at McChord.

[TT-SEA]

4 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

Has to be overdone, but Saturday is about as cold as a May day could possibly be on the 12z GFS. 

2pm temps of 39 in Longview, 41 in Portland and 42 in Tacoma would be beyond absurd.

 

The 18Z GFS is a little better for Saturday compared to the 12Z run... slight shift south.   But 00Z run might go back to what the 12Z run showed.  

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I’ve had one decent soaking rain in the last 5 weeks. 

Seattle city office has had 5 days with .3"+ of rain in that time. Another day with .24". They are running right around average precip since mid March.

I think you've just been in an unusually bad spot recently.

[Front Ranger]

44 minutes ago, YahRaEl said:

Wtf 100° in May

 

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bit of an exaggeration but it was close in places.   And then it was wet and cool all summer.  

It did hit 100 at PDX. Also some foothill locations in western WA like Landsburg (102!) and Palmer. So probably at Tim's!

[T-Town]

Woah. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

49 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

30 at Shelton and 32 at McChord.

OLM has fallen from grace.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows a strong signal for warmth in the PNW and chilly weather across the central and eastern US next weekend.    

 

If we can hold that pattern for just 10 days I’ll call it a win. Hell I’d settle for a week.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS. Maybe some hope for a spike of warmth followed by some more seasonable weather. We’ll see. A decent warm spell followed by some t-storms or something might even be kind of fun as long as we’re not embarking on unbroken ridging until September.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS. Maybe some hope for a spike of warmth followed by some more seasonable weather. We’ll see. A decent warm spell followed by some t-storms or something might even be kind of fun as long as we’re not embarking on unbroken ridging until September.

I’m sure the duration will be shortened. Haven’t been able to hold a western ridge beyond 1 week all year.

The CCKW has already trended faster across guidance, it probably won’t be long until the reversion to the default pattern shows up in the clown range.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 5/1/2024 at 2:00 PM, MossMan said:

Looks like a shower is happening over towards Lake Chelan. 
Currently 65 degrees with a breeze. 
Warm in the sun! 

Your dog is so happy in the picture getting some . You can tell he’s ready for boating season!  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I’m sure the duration will be shortened. Haven’t been able to hold a western ridge beyond 1 week all year.

The CCKW has already trended faster across guidance, it probably won’t be long until the reversion to the default pattern shows up in the clown range.

I tried…but meh.

Edited May 3 by Cascadia_Wx

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m sure the duration will be shortened. Haven’t been able to hold a western ridge beyond 1 week all year.

The CCKW has already trended faster across guidance, it probably won’t be long until the reversion to the default pattern shows up in the clown range.

Exactly... we have 3 weeks of troughing and there is panic about a few days of no troughing.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 5/1/2024 at 4:28 AM, MossMan said:

Currently 36 degrees. 

Not good, looks like a cougar was spotted on the same North Bend trail that the was last seen. Hoping the stallion is found and brought back to its owner!  

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/uh-oh-cougar-spotted-same-trail-missing-zebra-wandering-north-bend/6IG5ZWVUMRARNBCVYMMS334OAE/

 

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Things are greener every day right now because that's the way works at this time of year.   Things will get greener and trees will get fuller even faster when the warmer days arrive next week.   It's not like the warmer days will slow things down... just the opposite in May.   You are making it sound like the end of summer when the grass is brown and we get finally get rain. 

I'm not saying anything unreasonable or wrong. It's been drier than usual up until recently and I'm starting to notice the benefits of that recent rainfall now that it's sunnier again. Very straightforward.

Once again, and I see some others have also called you out on this today, I refer back to what I said yesterday, about how you're calmly nestled far, far away in a forested chateau a thousand feet high in the Cascade wilderness, regularly rinsed by nearly one-hundo inches of juicy sky water every trip 'round the sun. We city peasants aren't so fortunate, down in our scorched concrete wasteland, where frail blades of grass struggle to sneak their brown, lanky bodies through cracks in the cement, gently dancing in the breeze on a somewhat cool hundred degree May evening.

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm not saying anything unreasonable or wrong. It's been drier than usual up until recently and I'm starting to notice the benefits of that recent rainfall now that it's sunnier again. Very straightforward.

Once again, and I see some others have also called you out on this today, I refer back to what I said yesterday, about how you're calmly nestled far, far away in a forested chateau a thousand feet high in the Cascade wilderness, regularly rinsed by nearly one-hundo inches of juicy sky water every trip 'round the sun. We city peasants aren't so fortunate, down in our scorched concrete wasteland, where frail blades of grass struggle to sneak their brown, lanky bodies through cracks in the cement, gently dancing in the breeze on a somewhat cool hundred degree May evening.

You are a poet!

Just wait until the warm weather starting next week.   Grass will be growing like gangbusters and trees will all finish filling out.

[Front Ranger]

56 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

OLM has fallen from grace.

They used to be right there with Shelton and McChord most of the time, if not colder. Wonder what changed.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like some strongish storms moving into Clark County in NNE flow aloft. I’m not home at the moment but likely there will be some heavy rain there soon. 

 

[Tyler Mode]

Nice downpour passed here.  Went from 64 with windows open, to 52 and windows back closed lol

[LowerGarfield]

41 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Not good, looks like a cougar was spotted on the same North Bend trail that the was last seen. Hoping the stallion is found and brought back to its owner!  

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/uh-oh-cougar-spotted-same-trail-missing-zebra-wandering-north-bend/6IG5ZWVUMRARNBCVYMMS334OAE/

 

It was probably on the prowl for Huskies.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like a 63/47 day at PDX. A little below most guidance which is a rarity.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

On 5/1/2024 at 12:10 PM, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not sure what it’s doing in your part of town but it’s in the mid 50s with some overcast and sunbreaks at times here.

Was gloomy at the time, turned into a decent afternoon, def chilly tho think we were behind in the PDX high over here. This weekend looks…not May-ish  

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Was gloomy at the time, turned into a decent afternoon, def chilly tho think we were behind in the PDX high over here. This weekend looks…not May-ish  

Weather like that is historically pretty typical for the first half of May. It’s definitely becoming less common though, so people are adjusting their expectations.