snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 I think one place people are going wrong is comparing this to a winter Arctic outbreak situation. When considering how early this is it's quite an impressive situation. Many places had double digit minus temperature departures today and the real cold air is just now moving south through BC. We'll see how the numbers look when it's all said and done. Another thing that makes this impressive is how fast the temps have crashed when compared to the entire autumn so far. I'm pleased with what I've seen so far. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: For what? A bit of frost between now and Monday? That's not any where near exciting. I saw that 2 nights ago already. Just no appreciation for an extremely rare pattern this early. Too bad. You wouldn't have been impressed with 1949 either. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: 8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Made it up to 63F after a low of 30F. Currently 55F and cloudy. Feels like a pleasant summer evening. I would be going out of my mind with your endless torching down there. I must say 55 this early in the night would not be a normal summer night though. I hope for your sake this insane N to S gradient doesn't continue this winter. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Just no appreciation for an extremely rare pattern this early. Too bad. You wouldn't have been impressed with 1949 either. There is nothing notable about this pattern for the west side of the mountains, frost is not that uncommon for us this time of year. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I would be going out of my mind with your endless torching down there. I must say 55 this early in the night would not be a normal summer night though. I hope for your sake this insane N to S gradient doesn't continue this winter. You do know he had a low of 31 this morning and 30 yesterday morning. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 3 Past 4 runs - Trend seems to be emerging with the offshore ridge giving away to Alaska shortwave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 4 - As expected ridge doesn't back off enough. Nice Kona low though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 5 Past 4 runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 6 - Trough! Finally 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 The ECMWF temperature maps show things staying pretty chilly through Tuesday morning and then warming to about normal Tuesday afternoon. Even places south of Portland are shown to be quite a bit chillier during the day Sunday and Monday. It appears Sunday night will be the coldest for many locations due to some breezy areas Saturday night. The ECMWF cloud cover feature looks much more promising for mostly clear skies for the Puget Sound area for much of Sunday night. That should be a solid freeze that night. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 - Trough! Finally Not a terrible look by any means. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: Not a terrible look by any means. Not at all 6z NAM in 54 minutes 6z GFS in 2 hours 41 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 The temps in BC are bloody impressive for this time of year and that stuff is headed this way. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Reason for optimism!! 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Reason for optimism!! Absolutely! 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 45 minutes 00z ECMWF in 22 hours 45 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: I would be going out of my mind with your endless torching down there. I must say 55 this early in the night would not be a normal summer night though. I hope for your sake this insane N to S gradient doesn't continue this winter. It’s been torching just about everywhere in the region this fall. Up until the last few days when it has started to turn colder throughout the region. You are way overstating the N/S difference just to make yourself feel better about how warm it’s been, while he is to make himself feel worse about the current cool down. I swear it’s like an irrationality contest here sometimes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Hi Jesse! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Just now, GHweatherChris said: Hi Jesse! And don’t even get me started with you! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 All time single day October snowfall record at Spokane 6.8” as of 11p. Now the bad news... Some truly awful winters on this list. 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Lots of pessimism this evening! Anyway, down to 37! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: All time single day October snowfall record at Spokane 6.8” as of 11p. Now the bad news... Some truly awful winters on this list. Five bad and four good. 1919-20, 1951-52, 1971-72, and 1984-85 are winners in my book! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, Jesse said: And don’t even get me started with you! Or else? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Historic Winter on the way. 12z GFS in 8 hours 8 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Five bad and four good. 1919-20, 1951-52, 1971-72, and 1984-85 are winners in my book! I guess it comes down to if you are a glass half full or half empty kind of guy. Perhaps we even the score this time around. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Historic Winter on the way. 12z GFS in 8 hours 8 minutes 1933-34 was historic. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: I guess it comes down to if you are a glass half full or half empty kind of guy. Perhaps we even the score this time around. Which would make it even. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Which would make it even. That was what I meant... Didn’t come out right. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I guess it comes down to if you are a glass half full or half empty kind of guy. Perhaps we even the score this time around. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Lots of pessimism this evening! Anyway, down to 37! The night shift. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: The night shift. With an avatar like that you could be the shift captain. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: With an avatar like that you could be the shift captain. Am trying my best to channel you and Tiger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Some interesting temp profiles in the metro area this evening. PDX is down to 48 with a light west wind while Troutdale is 58 with a stronger SW wind. Calm and holding at 50 here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Just no appreciation for an extremely rare pattern this early. Too bad. You wouldn't have been impressed with 1949 either. This pattern isn’t all that rare, I don’t think? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Five bad and four good. 1919-20, 1951-52, 1971-72, and 1984-85 are winners in my book! Uh oh there’s 1933. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 The dodgers have their first World Series lead since...1988. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 One place in Southern BC is down to -2 now and that is not from radiational cooling. I don't know how that isn't impressive. Even here I'm down to 42 now with solid cloud cover and north winds. Pure CAA cooling. I would have had a few inches of snow tonight had it been winter. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 41 minutes ago, Jesse said: It’s been torching just about everywhere in the region this fall. Up until the last few days when it has started to turn colder throughout the region. You are way overstating the N/S difference just to make yourself feel better about how warm it’s been, while he is to make himself feel worse about the current cool down. I swear it’s like an irrationality contest here sometimes. I'm just commenting on his endless streak of 60 degree days. We have had a lot of 50s here and today it was only 47. At least the diff between here and Eugene has been pretty enormous judging by what he's been talking about. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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