Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I saw you mention a possible brief shift to a +PNA during this time period. Until I start seeing in with the GFS Ensembles, I won't believe it. But how disappointing would that be! One of the mets on American posted that. Models are really struggling right now. From Chicago Storm on American: http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/800x600q90/560/l6d3.jpg "Original main disturbance is the nonsense in the Mid-Atl." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 It would make sense for high pressure and cold to surpresses this storm. Cold air has dominated this entire winter, why not keep it going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 It would make sense for high pressure and cold to surpresses this storm. Cold air has dominated this entire winter, why not keep it going?Not sure if you're serious haha but drought is killing us in the Plains, and I'm pretty sure if that keeps up that will essentially affect you guys too if it gets really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 It would make sense for high pressure and cold to surpresses this storm. Cold air has dominated this entire winter, why not keep it going? Models were really off tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Not sure if you're serious haha but drought is killing us in the Plains, and I'm pretty sure if that keeps up that will essentially affect you guys too if it gets really bad.I wasn't saying that's what I wanted. I'm saying the cold has been dominant this year and wouldn't surprised me if it kept being that way. I want a warm up and more moisture, which is why a change to a -PNA has me excited, unless it's just gonna go back positive when a storm like this develops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I wasn't saying that's what I wanted. I'm saying the cold has been dominant this year and wouldn't surprised me if it kept being that way. I want a warm up and more moisture, which is why a change to a -PNA has me excited, unless it's just gonna go back positive when a storm like this develops!Gotcha. High Pressures are never fun when they're smack dab over top of ya. I totally agree with what you're saying. I'm all for those monster "spring-like" storms, with severe wx and intense blizzards on the backside. Definitely ready for February, usually the transition month to storms like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Gotcha. High Pressures are never fun when they're smack dab over top of ya. I totally agree with what you're saying. I'm all for those monster "spring-like" storms, with severe wx and intense blizzards on the backside. Definitely ready for February, usually the transition month to storms like that.We can only hope so. I want a bowling ball track that nails everyone on the Plains and GL forums! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like yet another miss. Models habeen showing a surpressed storm with great consistency for a day now. Still some time left though I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like yet another miss. Models habeen showing a surpressed storm with great consistency for a day now. Still some time left though I guess. So long to go. It's nothing new. Did you really expect to see what you saw the other day? That was pretty nice I will tell you that but goes to show you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 So long to go. It's nothing new. Did you really expect to see what you saw the other day? That was pretty nice I will tell you that but goes to show you. Not saying what we saw the other day can't happen but there plenty of time to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 DVN did say the models will be good crazy because of the pattern change. Anything can still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GGEM takes SLP right over NYC...almost impossible with a SE Ridge...The map you posted of the ggem doesn't really show a se ridge though. The high is way off the coast of Pennsylvania to the east and the other high is over North Dakota to the north. I'm not liking our chances here in Nebraska at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Not sure if you're serious haha but drought is killing us in the Plains, and I'm pretty sure if that keeps up that will essentially affect you guys too if it gets really bad.Low snowfall in winter doesn't automatically mean we're in devastating drought. The avg qpf here is about 2.5" total for Dec to Feb. We've had about 5" of snow here in Omaha this winter which is about 10" below avg. In the winter you have way less evaporation due to low temps low sun angle and a lot of moisture running off due to frozen ground. People always overestimate the effect of low snowfall in the winter. That's why all of eastern Nebraska is only at a D0 on the drought monitor. If we get no moisture in April and May then things will go downhill fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 why is everyone talking about a SE ridge all the time. There isnt a SE ridge. They just got nailed with a winter storm. A lot of wishcasting going on. This SE ridge better happen fast if we're gonna get this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 why is everyone talking about a SE ridge all the time. There isnt a SE ridge. They just got nailed with a winter storm. A lot of wishcasting going on. This SE ridge better happen fast if we're gonna get this storm.It is forecasted to make an appearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 why is everyone talking about a SE ridge all the time. There isnt a SE ridge. They just got nailed with a winter storm. A lot of wishcasting going on. This SE ridge better happen fast if we're gonna get this storm.The PNA is forecasted to go negative soon, which would mean a SE Ridge would be in place. You are correct, there is currently not one is place, but the PNA is positive right now and dipping towards negative, which would support a SE ridge being put in place. The strength and influence on the storm could be a little wish casting on our part, but that fact that we believe there will be a SE ridge is supported. That's why the DVN mentioned the models could be struggling, because the U.S is going under a pattern change. AO/NAO are going neutral/positive and PNA is supposed to go negative, and models often struggle when changes like this are occurring. Not saying the models will be wrong for sure, but it's not set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS should be better for sure than 0z/06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS should be better for sure than 0z/06zEhhh. Low is still in mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Weak storm, but farther NW. Brings snows up to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ehhh. Low is still in mexico Goes from MS/AL into Kentucky and E. Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 It digs too deep though. Need it to eject faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 And then GFS shows another arctics outbreak after the storm moves through. Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM: HR 144: 1008 L in TexasHR 156: 1002 L in LA/ARK/MS bordersHR 168: 999 L in C/E. KYHR 180: 989 L E of Maine baby steps NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 As Money said, baby steps NW trend...still showing a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 You can see how important that high is to the west on these two frames of the GGEM: http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_27.png http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_28.png That thing cuts more NNE compared to ENE if that high to the west is weaker or pushed off more to the west. That's why it's going to be very important to see how the models handle that big high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 UKMET is much weaker with the high than the GGEM. 18 MB weaker to be exact. Ukie has a 1042 H in Canada in about the same spot while GGEM has 1060. UKMET would be a more northern solution if it went out farther based on the maps here: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 As Money said, baby steps NW trend...still showing a monster It has more potential to keep on going too. NAO will be near +1 by then. Rather get a couple good systems with wetter snow vs. these dinky 1-3" powder events that compact down right away. Just to show how much moisture the GGEM is showing through 174 hours. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Take a look at the 00z Euro Ensemble Control & Mean 500mb pattern during the storm period...I don't see how this could hit the east coast. Should be a cutter following this type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 euro should be better. Maybe not for our area, but better than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'd say go ahead and create a thread for this system. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z Euro big step NW from 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z runs got the right track, but I still see this shifting a bit NW over time. I still like where the Chicago-DTW posters are sitting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Its funny how the storm starts heading NNE, then veers almost due east into NYC. Step in the right direction, curious if tonights runs continue with NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 if this storm goes on a northwest trend that means chicago will be in a sweetspot by this storm and i like the chances that chicago will be in this storms path with a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 if this storm goes on a northwest trend that means chicago will be in a sweetspot by this storm and i like the chances that chicago will be in this storms path with a blizzard.I envy your optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 The man definetly loves the B word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Not going to happen says the pessimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 us fellas here in central iowa are prolly too far out for this. i think chicago gets destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I think its going to get warm for Feb. seemed like a south wind this morning.... signs of warmthYou might want to look at the models as there is no warm't in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I think its going to get warm for Feb. seemed like a south wind this morning.... signs of warmthwish it was that easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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