Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 SREF Plumes showing 1-2 for Racine/Milwaukee/Chicago 3 for S. MN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 0z NAM slowing things down with more precip... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 0z NAM slowing things down with more precip... This run seems like it's taking forever! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Much better run than 18z for NE/KS/IA etc. Widespread 1-3 for pretty much everyone in this section. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 I would take that for Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 SREF Plumes showing 1-2 for Racine/Milwaukee/Chicago 3 for S. MNDo you have a link to the sref plumes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Just find your area etc and hit total snow and you can see every member and the median. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Still out of the accuracy range for the NAM, but the trend is going the right direction. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 These are the type of systems that can really over-perform especially with the ratios of 15-18:1 some offices are putting out. 18z GFS Ensembles 72 HR accumulation: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_18z/f114.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 The EURO and GFS need to do us a solid just this one time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Overall, many people on this forum will have a great opportunity to have snow fly and receive their first 1" or greater snowfall for the season. Not to shabby. I was out earlier today at the local stores shopping for Christmas and there are soo many nice lights, ornaments, and outdoor decor to decorate your place. I'm probably going to wait till the weekend before Thanksgiving to put them up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 The EURO and GFS need to do us a solid just this one time.Still think the Euro is onto something bigger as we get closer...hoping we can get this baby to phase earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyzlc Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Any hints at any thing showing up for midweek next week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Lets see what the GFS says.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 When is the next euro due out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Euro doesn't run again till around midnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS coming in slower again. Seems like each run the precip is getting later and later to arrive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 1-2 for Chicago/Milwaukee. 2-3 for Iowa, 4-8 for most of Kansas, 1-5 for most of Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 It completely splits Central Nebraska...How in the hell does that even happen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educatorjen Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hmmm...I like the 5 part of 1-5 for most of Nebraska...but, I guess I shouldn't be greedy since it is just November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Parallel GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 The southern wave is just way too fast. If it could only slow down a bit we would have a chance at a phased, more organized system. I'm not complaining though. It's still going to be a nice 1-2 inch high-ratio snow to start out the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Doesn't look like anything good is going to come of that Parallel GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111300/gfsp_asnow_us_14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 The southern wave is just way too fast. If it could only slow down a bit we would have a chance at a phased, more organized system. I'm not complaining though. It's still going to be a nice 1-2 inch high-ratio snow to start out the season. Yup. Running out of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Actually not terrible, a nice 1-3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not too concerned with the placement of the heavier bands. I am right in between them, not a bad spot to be 3 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Any hints at any thing showing up for midweek next week? Looks to be cold and dry turning a tad warmer but still primarily dry, esp in the cold sector. I don't think the next storm will be a big snowmaker, but the one Thanksgiving week obviously has potential if it keeps showing up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hoping the GGEM and EURO can win this one. If only the southern wave could slow down several hours. CMC moisture plot. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Count me as a fan of tonights Euro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 What does it show? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 I don't have access to it all, but I can give you this.. http://i.imgur.com/SXIj6Ja.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Basically all of the GFS Ensembles show .1-.25"QPF for Milwaukee, so as I mentioned in another forum, my initial call will be 1.6" of snow here, hopefully I can bump that up a bit later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 LOT explaining why the snow won't have a hard time sticking. Post the EURO map in a bit. IT DOES HELP TO ADD CONFIDENCE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHESTHAT FALL OUT WHEN 1. APPLYING RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 17:1 SUPPORTED BYFORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND 2. MIXING RATIOS OF 1.5 G/KG WITHINA SIX HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCHMELTING DESPITE PROBABLE LIGHT RATES THANKS TO FIVE COLD DAYS INADVANCE OF THIS. SOIL TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FELL QUICKLY ASINDICATED BY THE 4 INCH TEMP AT THE WFO NOW 38 DEGREES HAVING GONEDOWN 12 DEGREES IN TWO DAYS. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 LOT explaining why the snow won't have a hard time sticking. Post the EURO map in a bit.they are right that it won't be a problem for the snow to stick according to greencast that the soil temps is in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 It's getting pretty quiet on here. Hopefully we'll all have something to track around Thanksgiving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 It's getting pretty quiet on here. Hopefully we'll all have something to track around Thanksgiving.Its way early in the season. This has been like bonus model watching Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 This is from my local AFD overnight. It's going to snow, but it looks like Omaha is going to get split by the 2 heavier bands: THIS PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS RESULTS INSNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. 2 TO 4 NORTH AND SOUTH WITH CLOSER TOA RANGE OF 1 TO 3 (AN AVERAGE OF 2) IN THE OMAHA/COUNCILBLUFFS/LINCOLN AREAS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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