Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Parallel GFS has a 982 L in N. IL http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111912/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 For sure showing signs of any earlier phase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111912/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_20.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111912/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 For sure showing signs of any earlier phase. You can tell that the northern stream digs quite a bit on the regular GFS compared to previous runs which allows for an earlier phase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 You can tell that the northern stream digs quite a bit on the regular GFS compared to previous runs which allows for an earlier phase. No idea if it will show any snow but all it would take would be a couple of fresh inches to show pretty impressive conditions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 You can tell how much farther it digs here. 6z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_17.png12z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Yes the GFS run to run consistency is non-existent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 It's still being very stingy with the snow and hammers S Canada...connection to the cold is slow to come even though it digs better. Maybe the models are under doing the amount of cold this storm can generate on its own. We are still 5 days away so things can certainly change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 It's still being very stingy with the snow and hammers S Canada...connection to the cold is slow to come even though it digs better. Maybe the models are under doing the amount of cold this storm can generate on its own. We are still 5 days away so things can certainly change.Ya still not overly impressive. Basically holding out hope for a couple inches on the backside and some impressive winds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 It's still being very stingy with the snow and hammers S Canada...connection to the cold is slow to come even though it digs better. Maybe the models are under doing the amount of cold this storm can generate on its own. We are still 5 days away so things can certainly change. Plenty of time for things to change yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 0z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png 12z GFS (today) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 0z Parallel: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111900/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_23.png12z Parallel http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111912/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Wonder what the winds would be like with the GFS and Parallel GFS verbatim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 12z GFS has 3-6+ inches of snow for most of Minnesota and 3-5 for W/NW. WI. Even has an inch or two here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 I just compared the Euro ensembles from 00z 18th to 00z 19h and there are some slight BUT important differences. Notice near the Arctic to the east of Alaska on the 00z 19th run there appears to be slighty more of an arctic connection which can allow for the northern stream to dig a bit farther south and supply more cold. Also, the trough seems to be trying to go more negative tilted, albeit slightly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 12z GFS...still snowing in WI/MN area... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Yup. Stronger low= more backside precip usually so it would make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 GGEM is farther SE than 0z. 12z HR 108: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 12z HR 120: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Seems to be a little SE of previous runs and negative tilt at hr108. If this storm was slightly weaker then it would probably be even farther SE but the cold air just is not around so it would not even matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Total snowfall on GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111912/gfs_asnow_us_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Seems to be a little SE of previous runs and negative tilt at hr108. If this storm was slightly weaker then it would probably be even farther SE but the cold air just is not around so it would not even matter.Ya weaker would be even less snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 It looks like the only chance we see snow out of this is on the backside so we all need to hope for a quick phase and then have this puppy really bomb out earlier than currently modeled. Still a ways to go on this but I think this is our only chance of getting snow, if any. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 It looks like the only chance we see snow out of this is on the backside so we all need to hope for a quick phase and then have this puppy really bomb out earlier than currently modeled. Still a ways to go on this but I think this is our only chance of getting snow, if any.Yes large scale changes would need to happen for the chicago area to get in on any decent snows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Yes large scale changes would need to happen for the chicago area to get in on any decent snowsYou look to be sitting in nice position at this time for some snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 You look to be sitting in nice position at this time for some snow.Ya on the edge according to the GFS, way to many variables to buy anything at this point. Definetly need a strong/early phase around here. GGEM would probably be nothing here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 I guess this slight warm-up won't be too bad as I could use another day to finish up in the backyard before the bottom drops out again. Curious to see what the Euro shows on both storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Ggem gives you a couple of inches gosaints Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Has some nice wrap around snows for mn/wi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 12z GGEM...not nearly as impressive as the GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Ukmet has a 975 L directly over GRB at 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Basically no consensus on the gefs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Not paying attention to this anymore. The system on Black Friday is looking interesting though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Weekend system has a chance to be quite rare in terms of strength. That Aline makes it worth watching Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Weekend system has a chance to be quite rare in terms of strength. That alone makes it worth watching Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Euro is a big bomb.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Euro is a big bomb..Ha looks like it. Probably warm but for sure a bomb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Not looking like much of any of a snow maker this weekend. But no worries the next one could get interesting!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 972.9 just west of GB at 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 972.9 just west of GB at 120boom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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