Tom Posted November 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 00z Euro showing nada... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Heavy snow on the 18Z NAM. Hope this continues. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Don't have time at the moment to post the 6z NAM, but it continues the snow look - similar areas as above^. Maybe a little further east too. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Nice to see the deform snows on a couple models. Who knows if it will really happen, and if it does good luck pinning down where it happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 NAM back to pretty lame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 I didn't think the GGEM was very reliable this far out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 I didn't think the GGEM was very reliable this far out.Its never that reliable. At this time frame the NAM isnt either. So pretty much grasping at straws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 A lot of the 6z GFS ensembles show the same thing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 A lot of the 6z GFS ensembles show the same thingya definetly on the table, but thread the needle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 HR 78: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f78.gif HR 84 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f84.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z GFS shows about a 16 MB drop in 12 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z GFS showing more backside snow with 6+ in northern WI and 2-5 across MN/W.WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_12.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 GFS 0z HR 96http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112100/gfs_asnow_us_17.png 12z GFS HR 84 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_asnow_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Parallel GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112112/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112112/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112112/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Parallel GFS Snowfall: 0z HR 102: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112100/gfsp_asnow_us_18.png 12z HR 90: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112112/gfsp_asnow_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 LOL at the GGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Still some huge differences in strength. GGEM at HR 72 is 987. GFS at HR 72 is 975 and just a bit more north. NAM at HR 72: 983 in about the same spot as GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Still some huge differences in strength. GGEM at HR 72 is 987. GFS at HR 72 is 975 and just a bit more north. NAM at HR 72: 983 in about the same spot as GFS.Still some curveballs with this thing I believe. The southern vort diving into mexico wont help models. You have the UKIE? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Still some curveballs with this thing I believe. The southern vort diving into mexico wont help models. You have the UKIE? I do but. It usually doesn't come out until 10:40 CDT or so, but the last couple days it's been all over the place. Here was 0z last night at HR 96 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 This is all going to come down to when the phasing happens. Stronger storm=more snow like Tom has been saying the last few days. Check out the differences in the northern stream system on the 12z GFS compared to 0z GFS and you can easily tell why it's so much stronger. 0z HR 60 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_10.png 12z HR 48 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_8.png0z run had it up in S. Canada while 12z had it SE into SE ND. It might not seem like a lot, but you can tell it phases earlier and hence how strong it gets later in the run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Here is HR 60: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_10.pngHR 66: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_11.pngPhase is complete and drops nearly 16 MB in 12 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looking at the GGEM ensembles, it looks like the OP is pretty weak in terms of what the other models are showing. I count at least 5 or 6 that get it down into the 960's at HR 84 while most of the others are in the low 970's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 I am getting AM Ice. YUCK!!!! Thankfully, all that will change to a nice rainfall later Saturday w/ milder temps and Sunday into Mon a nice, mild rainstorm is on the cards. Cold and dry weather follows for the remainder of the week and into the weekend, nothing too brutal like we have been experiencing, just colder w/ t highs in the 20s to near 30 and lows in the lower 20s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 HR 72: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 I love to see systems go through bombogenesis.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 I love to see systems go through bombogenesis....yep. and no matter what the models say when bombing occurs is always in question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 I love to see systems go through bombogenesis.... Models usually tend to underestimate strength when it comes to phasing storms etc. Something to also think about if this thing phases and bombs out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 yep. and no matter what the models say when bombing occurs is always in question Models usually tend to underestimate strength when it comes to phasing storms etc. Something to also think about if this thing phases and bombs out. The models also may underdo the amount of cold it can generate...so the back side snows showing up now in the modeling is a hint for what may come. Just want to see the Euro show this because it has been non existent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 The models also may underdo the amount of cold it can generate...so the back side snows showing up now in the modeling is a hint for what may come. Just want to see the Euro show this because it has been non existent. Yup. It's nice to see the GGEM/GFS/GFS P/6z NAM showing this as well. Still nearly 3 days out and a lot can change considering it isn't sampled, but I think it's a good bet that at least some snow will fall on the backside of the storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z euro is pretty weak in terms of strength compared to GFS. 982 at HR 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Anyone got the euro? I'm getting rid of accuweather pro. For 2 weeks now the models, especially the euro, are not updating timely or in full. Total waste of money. The past 3 years I've had it and it's worked great. No longer the case Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f72.gif http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f78.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Anyone got the euro? I'm getting rid of accuweather pro. For 2 weeks now the models, especially the euro, are not updating timely or in full. Total waste of money. The past 3 years I've had it and it's worked great. No longer the caseBud-- it's becuz they changed the amount of info iyou can get as well has location in lat/lon (usually for your current loc- but you can now type in any location with lat/lon) -- the downfalls is for the EURO you must wait until the model has completed its run. For the GFS -- use GFS rapid. The nice thing is that you can go back and check previous runs of the model with data output -- ie. 6z or 12Z or 18Z compared to 00Z). Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Grizz do you have the euro snow maps by any chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z Euro still showing barely anything... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 The pieces just aren't falling together Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 I like how almost everyone in here is in a Freezing Rain Advisory but no one has mentioned one word about it. Lol. I'm not that excited about it either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Far as the freezing rain goes, I hope it doesn't last too far into the day tomorrow. I want to put Christmas lights up before the more substantial rain moves in! haha. There seems to be some consensus of some wrap around or secondary low snows next Monday. Sometimes these little waves and leftover pieces of energy can give you a surprise ~ if the cold air wraps in quick enough. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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