Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 GFS has this storm down to 966mb! If anything this storm will be impressive its very low pressure. Complete with some snow. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Also shows 6 -8 in of snow in western and central wi 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 GFS parallel has a lot of wrap around snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Liking the chances of snow on Monday a bit better.Hopefully the ground doesn't warm up much this weekend. Total moisture. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Geos is that the regular gfs or parallel? Ukie has a ton of wrap around moisture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 UKMET: HR 60: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif HR 72: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Precip: HR 72: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Geos is that the regular gfs or parallel? Ukie has a ton of wrap around moistureGFS Parallel... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 RGEM at HR 48 has the low down to 987 in S.IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 00z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 So GGEM/GFS/P. GFS all show some places in WI getting 6+ from this and most areas at least receiving 3-5. Interesting trends tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 If that southern piece can get strong enough to pull the northern piece and the cold air down faster with a quicker phase, this could get real interesting... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 If that southern piece can get strong enough to pull the northern piece and the cold air down faster with a quicker phase, this could get real interesting... Even as is, it shows quite a bit of snow. Winds should be pretty gusty on the backside as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Even as is, it shows quite a bit of snow. Winds should be pretty gusty on the backside as well. Better than nothing for sure... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 I still wanna see the Euro get on board before getting too excited Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Geos is that the regular gfs or parallel? Ukie has a ton of wrap around moisture. Parallel. CMC maps. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 SREF Plumes are on the increase as well across most areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 I would think with the strong winds and the intensity of this low, that CAA would act quickly. Monday might be quite interesting with wind and snow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 SREF Plumes are on the increase as well across most areas. Some plumes in SE WI are approaching 6". 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Some plumes in SE WI are approaching 6". Yup. Highest I've seen is up in E/C WI towards GB where some are showing 10+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 These are the type of storms that give forecasters and models the hardest time. Something to watch for as we get closer (especially with all of this depending on phasing) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 00z Euro finally starting to show the backside snow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Nice just need the nam to get on board Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 EURO coming along I would say. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Whoa was away from a computer. First model I looked at was 6z nam. Clownage. Not likely but fun to look at Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 6z nam showing 16-20 in amounts lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hi res nam also showing a strong deformation band, but further southeast. This could get interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Pretty much every model has it now. Euro furthest east. Nam off in left field per usual . gfs seems to be in between Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 LSE AFD: OLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHTRESULTING IN A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. DEFORMATIONAXIS SNOW BAND WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTINGLOW ON MONDAY GENERALLY RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITHTHE HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. NORTHWEST WIND WILLALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OFSOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA...POSSIBLY CREATING SOME BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW. MKE: THE STRONGER LOW IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAS CHANGED THE PICTUREQUITE A BIT FOR MONDAY...AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING MORELIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUSTNORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER THE CONSENSUSOF MODELS...WITH THE LOW HAVING JUST DROPPED ROUGHLY 20 MB OVER THEPREVIOUS 24 HOURS. COLD AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREATHROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE DEFORMATION SNOW MAYLINGER THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT INMODELS AND NOT SURE IF THE MODELS WILL SETTLE ON THIS...ONLY HAVE IN2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW MOST PLACES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHERAMOUNTS IS THERE IF THIS SITUATION PANS OUT. GB: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLYAS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPIVALLEY TO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE LOW...INCREASINGUPPER DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA OFPRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.PLENTY OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN FORMUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL LATE WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL ANDNORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND COULD CHANGE PRECIP TO A MIX OR ALLSNOW. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SPREADACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTOONTARIO. POTENTIAL IS IMPROVING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE ONMONDAY...THOUGH ITS STILL RATHER DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ONPOSSIBLE ACCUMS SINCE THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE. BUT IF TRENDSCONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SOLUTION...A 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH EVENT ISPOSSIBLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE WITH ANYSNOWFALL SINCE GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 SREF Plumes took a huge jump again LSE: Mean: 6.06High: 20.00Low: 0.06 10 6+ MKE: Mean: 3.09High: 6.86Low: 0.00 ORD: Mean: 3.29High: 8.33Low: 0.00 8 (4+) OSH: Mean: 4.32High: 9.49Low: 0.09 10 (5+) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Lil max sref at krst 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wow, what a change the recent models are showing. I don't know why I gave up on this storm a couple days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z NAM HR 36: 992.5 L just NW of STL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z NAM HR 36: 992.5 L just NW of STL Down to about 984 just S. of Milwaukee at HR 45. 8 MB drop in 9 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 W. WI getting hit hard at HR 48 with already 3-4 inches near Madison/LSE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Imagine what the nam would show if it bombed out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah 6z the NAM phased it way sooner in E. WI or so and it caused it to sit and just bomb out hence the large amounts. 12z isn't nearly as strong but still shows 4-8 inches of snow from SW WI NE into GB etc Nearly all of Eastern WI (from Oshkosh/Appleton up) get 6+ this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yep western fringe here inch or two that run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Madison good or on the eastern fringe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 Madtown ground zero this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.