Westerns Take on the Buffalo Snow Event of 2014

[snow_wizard]

I'm actually glad to be seeing this kind of thing. You look at last winter being the coldest on record in parts of the Midwest, and now this. There is no reason whatsoever the NW can't score a huge winter when other parts of the country and other countries are seeing winter events to rival anything on record.

 

As for what is going on in Buffalo...I would have to think it would stop being fun when it gets to this level.

[Snowman5678]

I live in a lake effect area here in Salt Lake City. Although what we see here is nothing like what happens over there, on occasion there can be 2-3 feet of lake effect in the foothills here. Last winter I saw a storm with 8" of LES as my peak.

 

Anyway I can vouch for how hard it is to forecast. It is extremely difficult to pin down the location and models are USUALLY incorrect on the exact placement ahead of time. We have a LES event coming up this weekend for my area so it will be fun to see what happens.

OT Question for you. Does all of SLC usually get lake effect snow or is it only parts of it. I may be moving there next year. 

[snow_wizard]

Mallow posted on Facebook that he was driving up to Buffalo tonight to witness this. If I lived within 10 hours I probably would as well.

It could end up being the drive from hell if he ends up in the wrong area. I think I would drive to a place that has much less snow and walk a couple of miles to the really heavy zones. It appears some places go from a few inches to several feet in the same town.

[Front Ranger]

Mallow posted on Facebook that he was driving up to Buffalo tonight to witness this. If I lived within 10 hours I probably would as well.

 

That's intense. I think I'd have to be within 4 hours, though. And not have to work the next day.

[Front Ranger]

It could end up being the drive from hell if he ends up in the wrong area. I think I would drive to a place that has much less snow and walk a couple of miles to the really heavy zones. It appears some places go from a few inches to several feet in the same town.

 

I think it would be more dangerous to walk into the heaviest snows...but you're right, you'd have to be careful where you ended up driving as well.

[bainbridgekid]

It could end up being the drive from hell if he ends up in the wrong area. I think I would drive to a place that has much less snow and walk a couple of miles to the really heavy zones. It appears some places go from a few inches to several feet in the same town.

Lots of people on Facebook were saying he's crazy.

 

And he did say he's planning on parking near the Northern edge and walking in. Not sure how that'll go with the heavy snow now falling in Buffalo proper which is North of where the snow fell yesterday.

 

He's a smart guy though. I'm sure he prepared and brought things so he could sleep in the car if they got stuck.

 

I'd definitely bring snow shoes if it were me!

[bainbridgekid]

A few videos of the thundersnow in downtown Buffalo that were posted on Eastern.

 

http://instagram.com/p/vm3uLWCHE3/

 

https://www.facebook...152867390729169

 

https://vine.co/v/OJ1323PMTnJ

[richard mann]

-
Decoded "METARs" hourly, for Buffalo. For the most recent 12 hours. (.. updating.)
 
http://aviationweather.gov/metar/data?ids=KBUF&format=decoded&hours=12&taf=off&layout=on&date=0
(.. six minutes before whatever hour zulu: dd hhmmz.)

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?area=na
https://earthdata.na...11.7056,50.4305   (.. may take a moment to load in.)
 
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/

[Skagit Weather]

Absolutely crazy. Imagine waking up to this.

 

[Black Hole]

Looks like its stationary now over the same spots as yesterday. Dumping like crazy!

 

OT Question for you. Does all of SLC usually get lake effect snow or is it only parts of it. I may be moving there next year. 

There can be lake effect snow from about due south of the lake (Tooele), into SLC (SE), and to the west up in Ogden....or anywhere in between. I would say your greatest amount is into SLC or somewhat south towards the Oquirrh mountains. If you do move and want to maximize your awesome weather potential I can give you more insight into who does well with what. That said I live in West Valley City and have done really well with most of the events even in the lower elevation because of favorable lake band placement.

 

Mallow posted on Facebook that he was driving up to Buffalo tonight to witness this. If I lived within 10 hours I probably would as well.

I totally would too if I could. Someday I want to fly in when I know a big one is coming.

[snow_wizard]

Lots of people on Facebook were saying he's crazy.

 

And he did say he's planning on parking near the Northern edge and walking in. Not sure how that'll go with the heavy snow now falling in Buffalo proper which is North of where the snow fell yesterday.

 

He's a smart guy though. I'm sure he prepared and brought things so he could sleep in the car if they got stuck.

 

I'd definitely bring snow shoes if it were me!

For sure on the snowshoes!

 

If this was a widespread event he would be crazy. Being that it's so isolated I think you could walk in pretty safely.

[BLI snowman]

Mallow posted on Facebook that he was driving up to Buffalo tonight to witness this. If I lived within 10 hours I probably would as well.

 

Just keep heading east on I-90 and you might get there before the snow stops.

[bainbridgekid]

Posted this in the other thread but I want to put it in here as well because it explains why the lake effect has been so extreme during this event.

 

There's a large swath of Lake Erie upwind from Buffalo that is 50-54 degrees still. With 850mb temps near -15 (5 Fahrenheit) that is a difference of nearly 50 degrees over less than 5,000 feet. No wonder there's such incredibly instability with thundersnow and extremely heavy snowfall!

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/eswt-00.gif

[TT-SEA]

This event looks focused farther south... and not as organized yet.

[bainbridgekid]

This event looks focused farther south... and not as organized yet.

It's definitely 5-10 miles South of the last one so far. But it isn't even supposed to really get cranking full strength until early tomorrow morning and it's already snowing 2-3" per hour in the main band. Downtown picked up 4-5" in less than 2 hours as the band moved through according to reports on Eastern.

 

The NWS forecasts were for 4-8" tonight and 2 more feet during the day tomorrow for the hardest hit areas. Some areas are going to get well over a foot just tonight based on reports so it's pretty organized.

 

It seems to be snowing much harder than it looks on radar because of the relatively low tops to the storm.

[BLI snowman]

Dunkirk seems like the best reporting station for all you obs junkies. They got slammed the other day and have been reporting heavy snow and impressive winds

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDKK/2014/11/20/DailyHistory.html

[bainbridgekid]

Dunkirk seems like the best reporting station for all you obs junkies. They got slammed the other day and have been reporting heavy snow and impressive winds

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDKK/2014/11/20/DailyHistory.html

Awesome. Heavy snow with temps in the teens and 30-40 mph winds all day. Sounds like Bellingham in Dec. 1996.

 

And Dunkirk is actually a ways South of the heaviest axis of snow from the other day.

[richard mann]

-
.. Main cloud deck rising at this point, with main precip. showing "light snow" no longer "blowing", per the most recent "METAR" for the area.  @
 
Separate idea, .. mid-upper 50s expected on the weekend, with rain.

[BLI snowman]

Awesome. Heavy snow with temps in the teens and 30-40 mph winds all day. Sounds like Bellingham in Dec. 1996.

 

And Dunkirk is actually a ways South of the heaviest axis of snow from the other day.

 

Yeah, no FAA stations in that area that really got pounded. Looks like Dunkirk likely had a couple feet, but not the super extreme stuff.

[bainbridgekid]

The heaviest band looks to have set up in pretty much the same spot as yesterday for now. Right over the Southern suburbs of Buffalo.

 

This could get really serious really fast if it remains stationary over them much longer. They already have 40-65" on the ground and it's coming down at ~3" per hour per current reports.

 

[Phil]

Some incredible videos coming out already from the lakeshore. Someone is gonna total 8-9 feet out of the combined events..

[richard mann]

-
http://www.erh.noaa....BUF&versions=10 .. "Outlook", Buffalo, NY NWS-WFO
http://www.weather.gov/buf/

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/17196

[TT-SEA]

As I said last night... it set up farther south this time. The hardest hit areas last time are dry this morning.

[bainbridgekid]

As I said last night... it set up farther south this time. The hardest hit areas last time are dry this morning.

It meandered all night.

 

The airport which is in North Buffalo picked up 10.7".

 

It's a good thing it didn't lock in on the same area as last time, but South Buffalo was under the gun for several hours looking at the radar from last night.

[Phil]

Those "less hard hit areas" still got 3-4 feet of snow last time..just not 6 feet. The current band has already dropped up to 2 feet of snow on the southtowns, after the 5-6 feet they got a few days ago.

[bainbridgekid]

And the band is suppose to get heavier through the day. Buffalo AFD also expects it to meander back North to just South of Buffalo during the afternoon before slipping back South this evening.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0814 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201414Z - 201845Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES /EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR/ AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MIDDAY IN LEE
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS /INCREASING HEIGHT OF THE INVERSION
ACROSS LOWER MI BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TODAY/ ARE INDICATIVE OF THE
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MID-LEVEL TROUGH. 12Z SOUNDING AT
BUF SHOWED SIMILAR TRENDS IN THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARMER LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PER
12Z RAP/HRRR OVER AND EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES CONFIRM THESE
OBSERVATIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN BUOYANCY. THUS...THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE DEPTH SHOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ONGOING BANDS...FURTHER ENHANCING THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES.

[TT-SEA]

Shifted north now... back into the hard hit areas.

[bainbridgekid]

Shifted north now... back into the hard hit areas.

Hearing reports of multiple roof collapses. Driving is banned. Stores are running out of food and gas stations out of gas. What a mess in the hardest hit spots.

 

Already reports of up to 23" just from round 2. These are all hours old too. It's 1PM there now.

 

..ERIE COUNTY...

EAST AURORA 23.0 1050 AM 11/20 COCORAHS

2 S WALES 19.5 700 AM 11/20 CO-OP OBSERVER

1 NNE HAMBURG 13.0 926 AM 11/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

LACKAWANNA 13.0 1032 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO

2 NE BOSTON 13.0 800 AM 11/20 COCORAHS

WSW HAMBURG 12.5 700 AM 11/20 COCORAHS

1 W COLDEN 12.2 730 AM 11/20 CO-OP OBSERVER

LANCASTER 12.0 700 AM 11/20 EMERGENCY MNGR

EDEN 12.0 700 AM 11/20 EMERGENCY MNGR

WALES CENTER 12.0 700 AM 11/20 EMERGENCY MNGR

ORCHARD PARK 11.0 600 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO

3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 10.7 700 AM 11/20 COCORAHS

NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 10.7 700 AM 11/20 ASOS

2 ENE COLDEN 10.6 800 AM 11/20 COCORAHS

CLARENCE 10.0 700 AM 11/20 EMERGENCY MNGR

[bainbridgekid]

It just continues.

 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS
AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE EAST TO THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN WYOMING
COUNTY...

* AT 1250 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 3
INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS
AND SOUTHTOWNS...INTO WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL ALSO
CLIP FAR SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BAND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
DRIFT BACK SOUTH AFTER DARK.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
BOSTON AND WEST FALLS...
COLDEN...WALES...EAST AURORA...
LACKAWANNA...ORCHARD PARK...HAMBURG...
ELMA...WEST SENECA...ALDEN...
BENNINGTON AND ATTICA...
VARYSBURG...HOLLAND AND MARILLA...

[Phil]

My jealousy continues. That's fooking crazy

[bainbridgekid]

Somebody on Eastern who lives in Hamburg just reported 9" in the last 2 hours (11:30-1:30.)

 

He already had like 4 feet from the first storm and lots more last night and this morning. WOW.

 

[Snowman5678]

LES Band has shifted north a bit for the moment MCD for 2-4" an hour.

[bainbridgekid]

BuffaloWeather who lives in Hamburg (a town of 57,000 people just South of Buffalo) just posted on Eastern:

 

"13 inches of snow from 11:30 to 2:30. 25.5+ inches from round 2. 75.5 inches total from this storm."

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-historic-lake-effect-snowstorm/page-34

 

He posted videos walking down the middle of I-90 as well.

 

 

Absolute insanity!

[richard mann]

 

Interesting summary of events on Wunderground -

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2863

 

The things that jumped out at me are:

 

1) Its very unusual to get coast to coast monthly record cold in November. From -19F in Redmond to -27F in Casper to 14F in Charlotte. That's an epic pattern which doesn't happen all that often even in the heart of winter.

 

2) With 60"+ totals this is possibly the most extreme Lake Erie lake effect snowstorm on record. All of the greater totals in LES history have come from Lake Ontario, which has higher terrain on the lee side to maximize the snowfall totals.

 

3) The great LES snowstorm of November 14-15, 1900. Also an Arctic blast into the PNW with that longwave pattern like this year. Although in that case the PNW blast followed the LES event by a few days instead of the other way around. Spokane hit -10F and Vancouver WA posted 33/13 with the cold peaking around the 20th-21st.

 

[richard mann]

-
.. Still looking at this idea fellas (and Ladies, if there are any tuned-in here).
 
—> http://theweatherfor...f-2014/?p=43252   (post 24 above.)

.. You know, the main "whys" and "wherefores". (?)
 
http://theweatherfor...f-2014/?p=43252   (post 29.)

 

Upper air temps are again falling over the area in the wake of a weak system today (that ironically shut off the heavy Lake Effect snow and replaced it with light synoptic snowfall) and flow is turning back to SSW over Lake Erie right now which is creating a long fetch over the length of the lake to get Lake Effect going again.

[richard mann]

It takes Global Warming to get Lake effect snow in November in the Buffalo area. (There was an article written in the Business Insider that said Global Warming is to blame for Lake effect snow in November)

http://www.businessinsider.com/buffalo-6-feet-of-snow-tuesday-photos-2014-11

 

.. More pre-storm. If with images along with comments attached as updates.

[TT-SEA]

This event appears to be over for the Buffalo metro area.

[Phil]

This event appears to be over for the Buffalo metro area.

Still dropped another 2-3 feet on the southtowns..as expected.

[TT-SEA]

Still dropped another 2-3 feet on the southtowns..as expected.

 

Yep.

[TT-SEA]

Strange vernacular there... southtowns and northtowns.  

[Skagit Weather]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
626 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

STORM TOTALS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING FOR THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENT...WHICH STARTED WEDNESDAY EVENING.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...
WALES CENTER 37.0 345 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 W HAMBURG 36.5 457 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
ANGOLA 33.0 337 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
HAMBURG 31.5 452 PM 11/20 NWS EMPLOYEE
EAST AURORA 27.0 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
ORCHARD PARK 23.0 600 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
ALDEN 18.5 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
3 WSW ELMA 13.8 608 PM 11/20 COCORAHS
4 NW ALDEN 12.0 429 PM 11/20 NWS EMPLOYEE
LANCASTER 11.0 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 8.1 425 PM 11/20 ASOS

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
WATERTOWN 8.0 409 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA

...WYOMING COUNTY...
COWLESVILLE 27.0 600 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
ATTICA 23.0 200 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO

$

THOMAS

 

[TT-SEA]

If you have 5 feet on the ground... can you even tell if it snows another 2 feet??  

[richard mann]

Strange vernacular there. .. southtowns and northtowns.  

 

That's how "space-people" talk.

[Jesse]

It's all gonna melt.

[richard mann]

-
What's up with this, Right. ? .. Keep reading.  
 
.. Of course at different points within this thread when it had been more active and with the main event focused on here having been actually taking place more, I'd invited whomever to submit or point to different ideas / elements appreciable, more analytical (analysis focused.) having worked to have contributed to this event-circumstance's having been brought about.  @
 
And with this idea, also of course, a few ideas along this line were submitted. 

Posts nos. 25 .. 29, 68 ... 41, 81 above.
 
.. With materials that I've generated accessible here below I've worked to point to my own thinking more analytical and focusing on some different elements more at the synoptic level and where looking at both colder air's, set with main moisture's part played in and in my view having worked to have contributed to along with supported this event circumstance. ...
 
$ ... Along with my own views generated here, here accessible following is a post-event Summary of the event generated by the NWS Buffalo, NY WFO -  http://www.weather.gov/buf/lake1415 stormc.html  (Note additionally with checking the main site-page accessible here above, that there were in fact two other LES events preceding this one more well focused on, more nationally.)
 
— Please feel free to either whether or both comment on or add to what I've said here. General text, post event assessment, images, whatever. 
 
My own general analysis. 
 
 With a new and fresh round of main and more primary cold having begun to move steadily more south daily back on the 10th, this with its having been caused to move more directly south through the 13th, .. and with colder air's otherwise where looked at more longitudinally also at the same time relatively slow movement more eastward more on the 14th and with where looking more forward begun to pick up its pace east gradually but steadily more daily, in effect working to limit its spread more south, …
 
.. With the gradual transition of the broader patterning supporting the event, mainly the lesser extent of main colder air more south while at the same time having shifted from more meridional to more zonal, significant moisture had been able to move into position to have become entrained to meet strong cold air mass having moved to a more limited extent south.  @

The ECMWF +00 hrs. initialization 850-500mb graphic, animated daily from the 10th through the 21s of November.  141110-141122 @12z 850-500hPa t+000vt   video quality / larger view
 
Here following accessible, is an animation that I've generated showing the main WV picture and setup, from the 10th through the 21st of November. And with this view and timeframe, the more basic both potential, along with more specific contribution of main moisture to the stronger accumulation of snow in and around the Buffalo area both leading up to and during the main event there.

141110-21 wv na

Plus the main IR for the same scope, from the 16th at 12z through the 21st.
141110-21 ir na
 
And the main Goes-E scope IR for from the 10th through the 21st.
141110-141121 Goes-E IR

[Doinko]

I didn't realize that there was a thread for this event, fun to look at especially after the current one.

[Mr Marine Layer]

What happened to Richard Mann?

[Mr Marine Layer]

[Phil]

I’ll never forget that 2014/15 winter. Started off dull/boring then went nuclear in February with several of the most ferocious arctic fronts I’ve ever seen.

This was the snow squall associated with the Valentine’s Day arctic front. After this followed a night of severe winds and temps plunging below 0°F on cold advection alone.

 

[Phil]

I took my own video of that squall (below), but chickened out when that first 60+mph gust hit and started blasting snow into the house.

Wish I’d stayed and filmed because it got much crazier after that. There was a 3-4 minute period where winds probably didn’t drop below 55mph.

Gusts were the highest since the 2012 derecho/until the March 2018 windstorm locally. Probably passed 70mph because my tree-obstructed anemometer recorded 66mph. Man I wish I could relive this.