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December 2014 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

i think the point of people like Money/Tom etc is not that everyone that disagrees with them about cold/snow returning by the last 10 days or so of the month needs to be admitted-- but that ever since

gosaints
gosaints

Alrighty then... Next time someone posts torches in lala land better not here any push back from you or others than either...

stratosjeff
stratosjeff

Dude, let it go. I'm sorry people attack you. I can understand some of the frustration though. You don't use any punctuation in your posts, you basically posted a farmers almanac storm (360 hrs). I as

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Most likely yep but been hearing it for a couple weeks now

Well, lets see, there is a storm that is hitting the Plains as we speak so the pattern is getting stormier.  Maybe not in your back yard, but it's getting its act together.  I don't think anyone has said it would be stormy the first 2 weeks of December.  At one point I did think there would be more blocking during the first part of December according to the LRC but that didn't transpire and then backed off of it.  I knew the stormy pattern would return around the 15th and to close out the month.  So here we are, and we will be entering that pattern around the Winter Solstice.  Just before Christmas was the target and the models have picked up on it.  Should be some exciting times ahead.

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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Well, lets see, there is a storm that is hitting the Plains as we speak so the pattern is getting stormier. Maybe not in your back yard, but it's getting its act together. I don't think anyone has said it would be stormy the first 2 weeks of December. At one point I did think there would be more blocking during the first part of December according to the LRC but that didn't transpire and then backed off of it. I knew the stormy pattern would return around the 15th and to close out the month. So here we are, and we will be entering that pattern around the Winter Solstice. Just before Christmas was the target and the models have picked up on it. Should be some exciting times ahead.

One storm with very limited cold air.  MSP set a record for the daytime high at 7 AM this morning.  An yes I do remember storms being predicted with the increased blocking.  

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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Yes that true just had enough NW flow events last winter.

I hear ya. One of the main reasons we racked up the snowfall amounts was due to the fluff factor and clippers every couple days. Would like to get into some beefy storms this time around.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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Well, lets see, there is a storm that is hitting the Plains as we speak so the pattern is getting stormier.  Maybe not in your back yard, but it's getting its act together.  I don't think anyone has said it would be stormy the first 2 weeks of December.  At one point I did think there would be more blocking during the first part of December according to the LRC but that didn't transpire and then backed off of it.  I knew the stormy pattern would return around the 15th and to close out the month.  So here we are, and we will be entering that pattern around the Winter Solstice.  Just before Christmas was the target and the models have picked up on it.  Should be some exciting times ahead.

 

No offense Tom, but I have never heard you say you were wrong, but you are always quick to point out when you are right ;)

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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How so? The temperatures look to to be only slightly above normal by me. Nothing out of the ordinary for us.

All the CPC predicts is chances of being above normal not how far above normal. Correct?  Plus the further west of you the disparity become larger.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_product&product=TDept

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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No offense Tom, but I have never heard you say you were wrong, but you are always quick to point out when you are right ;)

None taken.  BTW, I have said now twice on this forum I was wrong on how the pattern would open in December.  I was gearing up for more blocking for the first couple weeks but it didn't transpire.  The LRC suggested blocking in mid/late October and that was my idea.  So I did bust on that.  Even though it wasn't terribly warm around these parts.  Once we got closer to December, I said to ride the extreme warmth the models were showing to the cold.  End result was slightly above normal.

 

I'd say my overall predictions have been fairly accurate in giving longer range out looks, storm potential, etc.  I also try to provide as much valuable information on modeling, what to look for and what not to buy into.  It's the weather and it can throw you a curve ball here and there!   B)

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Scott26 Newbie

Scott26

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12z Euro is garbage for most of us unless you are a fan of cold and dry. At least the GFS had storms to track.

The 12Z Euro is far from garbage. It was pretty close to a phase with the near-Christmas storm and the southern stream gave some solid snow to areas further east. Plus take a look at the Ensembles as well Tony. The rest of the month has a lot of potential with snow chances and a very active pattern ahead of us.

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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The 12Z Euro is far from garbage. It was pretty close to a phase with the near-Christmas storm and the southern stream gave some solid snow to areas further east. Plus take a look at the Ensembles as well Tony. The rest of the month has a lot of potential with snow chances and a very active pattern ahead of us.

Pretty close does not get you there and I know how this will eventually turn out.(if I am wrong then it will be a pleasant surprise) You are right about points farther east getting snow and hope it happens for them. Have not looked at the ensembles but guessing from your post it has better potential than the operational.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Pretty close does not get you there and I know how this will eventually turn out.(if I am wrong then it will be a pleasant surprise) You are right about points farther east getting snow and hope it happens for them. Have not looked at the ensembles but guessing from your post it has better potential than the operational.

Euro operational in lala land compared to the Control/Ensembles.  Notice the 500mb pattern on 00z 21st from yesterday 12z, to today's run...its a little farther NW.  If this storm can become stronger then you can expect even farther shifts.  Also, today's ensemble run brings the accumulating snow band closer towards C IL/C IN.  

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Now this is a thing of beauty...but again 7-10 days out and we know how well that has worked out lately. Maybe this won't go to waste!

To see run after run and deeper anomalies showing up each passing day on the ensembles, something tells me the model is onto something.  Just look at what the Euro operational did today and "corrected" its typical Bias I've been talking about for the Christmas Eve system.  The Euro op was very close to a phase today.  Baby steps.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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None taken.  BTW, I have said now twice on this forum I was wrong on how the pattern would open in December.  I was gearing up for more blocking for the first couple weeks but it didn't transpire.  The LRC suggested blocking in mid/late October and that was my idea.  So I did bust on that.  Even though it wasn't terribly warm around these parts.  Once we got closer to December, I said to ride the extreme warmth the models were showing to the cold.  End result was slightly above normal.

 

I'd say my overall predictions have been fairly accurate in giving longer range out looks, storm potential, etc.  I also try to provide as much valuable information on modeling, what to look for and what not to buy into.  It's the weather and it can throw you a curve ball here and there!   B)

 

I do learn a lot from you and this forum. I went to school for meteorology and all these indexes and teleconnections weren't included in any forecasting classes I took! It's interesting stuff even if it isn't alway correct. But hey nothing is ever 100% correct when it comes to weather. Meteorology is a tough science and it does always frustrate me when the general public rips on a meteorologist for being wrong as if it is an exact science!

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Snowshoe Apprentice

Snowshoe

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My snow dance has a lot of work to do. Mid December and my snow cover is all gone. Even the northwoods of WI and the UP of MI have a fairly useless snowcover in respect to any winter sports. Even NWS GRB is grasping at straws at the end of the forecast to find snow. "Northwest trend to the end!!!" is my chant the rest of the month it would appear! Is this what Nebraskans felt like?

 

 

 

IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSES A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW...BUT THERE IS NOT A TON OF EXCITEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE. THE
MODELS APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSED WITH THE FOLLOWING
SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE MIDWEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE BEYOND
THE SCOPE OF THE FORECAST.
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WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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GDR Rising Star

GDR

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What are you talking about??? The 20th system looks way to flat. Nothing close to what the Euro Ens/Control are showing. Both of them are showing a phased strong system.

I was being sarcastic. Unless a half inch is a monster I don't think it will amount to much. Still time to change but looking less and less likely.
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Geos Proficient

Geos

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GFS seems lost compared to the EURO. Huge difference in the models regarding early next week.

 

Fog was really bad today up until about 3pm. -RN showers have been pushing through the last hour. 

 

Little light snow on the PGFS.

 

post-7-0-71810600-1418684486_thumb.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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clintbeed1993 Enthusiast

clintbeed1993

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My snow dance has a lot of work to do. Mid December and my snow cover is all gone. Even the northwoods of WI and the UP of MI have a fairly useless snowcover in respect to any winter sports. Even NWS GRB is grasping at straws at the end of the forecast to find snow. "Northwest trend to the end!!!" is my chant the rest of the month it would appear! Is this what Nebraskans felt like?

 

Kinda, except we went 4 months with biter cold and no snow cover.

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