December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

If future runs, BIG IF slow down how progressive this pattern is modeled, then we'll score.... 100% confident on that.

[Front Ranger]

I go with the regular GFS, has the parallel proven itself yet?  My feeling is no. 

 

Go with whatever model spits out the best run! Duh.

[snow_wizard]

While the GFS isn't epically cold or anything I can live with it. Decently chilly and a couple of lowland snow chances. One thing for absolute certain is it's going to be colder than its been. It also appears this may not be the big one that Phil has been talking about just yet.

[snow_wizard]

If future runs, BIG IF slow down how progressive this pattern is modeled, then we'll score.... 100% confident on that.

We saw that happen in a big way with both November events.

[epiceast]

The straw grasping team is training tonight.

[snow_wizard]

HR 174 .. Ridge shoved inland... Rising heights over southeast US/ridge though....

 

A SE ridge could be a huge deal with this. Maybe we still have a chance.

[snow_wizard]

The straw grasping team is training tonight.

Not really. I think this is an improvement.

[epiceast]

Not really. I think this is an improvement.

We have yet to see the Euro or the GEM.

[Gradient Keeper]

The improvements I saw were with the initial trough Tuesday-Thursday digs a bit further west and sharper, and then heights over southeast US were higher, some signs of a ridge.

[snow_wizard]

We have yet to see the Euro or the GEM.

Agreed. A long long way to go for sure.

[jaya]

I still don't know and don't understand if we're supposed to be using the Regular GFS or Parallel, and which one to interpret to obtain data for forecasting?

No one really knows yet...it is in beta. But overall it has been looking better performance wise.

[TT-SEA]

The Seahawks are rolling, unstoppable on offense.

 

 

Did not even recognize them!

 

Should have been at least 41-6 if we make 2 out of the 3 field goals.

 

Great game except for an injury in garbage time.

[snow_wizard]

The operational has a progressive Ninaish look to it at hour 252. Very different than previous runs. Maybe we will get some mountain snows while things prepare for the next block to pop up?

[snow_wizard]

Right now I'm just very relieved we will finally be getting out of this horrendous pattern we have been in.

[Front Ranger]

Not really. I think this is an improvement.

 

I agree. What's important are the changes in days 3-6. Beyond that...we've all been reminded recently how poor the models can be days 7+.

[epiceast]

Definitely a lot more mountain snow on WRF this run. A LOT more!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The low over the weekend might be a nice snowstorm for the mountains and eastern wa. I will be at my property in republic. Looking forward to see some real winter.

[Front Ranger]

It's currently raining, something you don't see often in December here.

[epiceast]

The low over the weekend might be a nice snowstorm for the mountains and eastern wa. I will be at my property in republic. Looking forward to see some real winter.

Looks good for 1000ft+

[snow_wizard]

The low next weekend bears serious watching. If it tracks any further south over central WA it could be a snow maker for the Puget Sound area. As it is the WRF shows it will be close to cold enough for snow. After that the WRF shows 925mb temps dropping to -3. Looks like a solid chill.

[snow_wizard]

It's currently raining, something you don't see often in December here.

That is pretty amazing. We sure haven't been alone in this torch.

[Bryant]

The operational has a progressive Ninaish look to it at hour 252. Very different than previous runs. Maybe we will get some mountain snows while things prepare for the next block to pop up?

FWIW, and I'm really not sure if it's worth much, but the BSR/TR that a few on Accuwx forums swear by is showing a -PNA pattern around the ~10th of January. A short duration of ridging is shown prior.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The low next weekend bears serious watching. If it tracks any further south over central WA it could be a snow maker for the Puget Sound area. As it is the WRF shows it will be close to cold enough for snow. After that the WRF shows 925mb temps dropping to -3. Looks like a solid chill.

This is something that could turn out to be a bigger deal than what is shown now for sure. Its very close to a nice event.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, and I'm really not sure if it's worth much, but the BSR/TR that a few on Accuwx forums swear by is showing a -PNA pattern around the ~10th of January. A short duration of ridging is shown prior.

Very good news. We just might pull off 2 or 3 weeks of decent weather yet.

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian is pretty impressive in it's own right.  The block is kind of anemic looking, but the amplitude is sure there.

 

[snow_wizard]

At this point I would say the 6 to 7 day time frame could evolve into something worthwhile.  Many of our good events show up looking modest at that range and then rapidly explode.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM is garbage. Pattern is very progressive after day 8

[snow_wizard]

Talk about a thing of beauty!  The ECMWF has been showing this wave for days now.  It moves strongly through all of the regions that are the most likely to deliver the goodies for us.  In some cases we can score big in 6 and 7 also, so that would give us until week 3 to get something to pop for us.

 

[snow_wizard]

00z GEM is garbage. Pattern is very progressive after day 8

 

But...the setup is there at day 6.  We just need something to lock it into place.  A nice window of opportunity being shown.  It wouldn't surprise me much if the pattern does collapse in the 8 to 10 day period and then re-amplify shortly after that.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF has begun...

Well, here we go.... Fearing a dismal run, but we'll see....

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 48

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122200/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_3.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 72 hardly any resemblance of a Kona low

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122200/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

[Guest daniel1]

Talk about a thing of beauty!  The ECMWF has been showing this wave for days now.  It moves strongly through all of the regions that are the most likely to deliver the goodies for us.  In some cases we can score big in 6 and 7 also, so that would give us until week 3 to get something to pop for us.

 

Just stop it

[Gradient Keeper]

Initial trough digs pretty good

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122200/ecmwf_z500a_namer_4.png

[snow_wizard]

Just stop it

Are you for real?

 

If you'll notice the last wave did cause an Arctic outbreak.

[snow_wizard]

Initial trough digs pretty good

So much potential right there.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96 .. Kamchatka low weaker and energy further west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122200/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_5.png

[Bryant]

Are you for real?

 

If you'll notice the last wave did cause an Arctic outbreak.

He showed up out of no where recently and just likes to dismiss any idea of an arctic outbreak

[Gradient Keeper]

Rising heights over southeast US, hmmm

[snow_wizard]

He showed up out of no where recently and just likes to dismiss any idea of an arctic outbreak

I seem to remember him from the old forum too. Total a$$ wipe.