December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

True but it was a very close call. Lots of nonsticking snow that afternoon.

 

 

Yeah... but it was going nowhere without colder air aloft.

 

I have seen it snow all day here with 925 temps like that and its about the same as rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS is underway..... Will take a look because I suppose you never know

[ShawniganLake]

I just hope this Nino went far enough to purge any chance of a two year event. The payback for all of the warmth this year should be impressive when we get to that point.

Mid-December enso forecast plume. Looks like warm neutral by next Fall.  CFSv2 says super-nino

 

 

 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/figure4.gif

[TT-SEA]

GFS keeps slipping the Wednesday system farther south with each run...

 

http://s27.postimg.org/dm9qxubab/gfs_namer_072_precip_p03.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 72 Op(Regular version)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122200/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_13.png

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS keeps slipping the Wednesday system farther south with each run...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_072_precip_p03.gif

Yes, good eye on that.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 72 Parallel

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122200/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_13.png

[Front Ranger]

Trying to remember... don't think so.

 

Could have swore you posted pics of Christmas snow a couple years ago.

[snow_wizard]

Mid-December enso forecast plume. Looks like warm neutral by next Fall.  CFSv2 says super-nino

 

 

 

 

It's pretty much alone though. Hopefully by spring this horrible warm ENSO +PDO episode will be just a bad memory.

[TT-SEA]

Could have swore you posted pics of Christmas snow a couple years ago.

 

 

My son says no... but they all blend together. 

 

I will go back to the December 2012 thread and check.

[Tyler Mode]

6 years ago today...

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/2008-Snow-and-Cold/i-nhQ8WDP/0/L/Small%20First%20Day%20of%20Winter-L.jpg

[bainbridgekid]

Could have swore you posted pics of Christmas snow a couple years ago.

A quick check of the December, 2012 thread shows this:

 

 

All that complaining and he forgot he had 2" on the ground and fluffy snow falling all day on Christmas 2 years ago. 

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96 Op Very weak Kona low situated right over Hawaii. Vorticity and energy west of Aleutians much weaker too.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122200/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_17.png

[Front Ranger]

Mid-December enso forecast plume. Looks like warm neutral by next Fall.  CFSv2 says super-nino

 

 

 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/figure4.gif

 

Jim no likey.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96 Parallel ..I hope it's okay posting both versions of GFS? I thought maybe you'd want to see the differences.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122200/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_17.png

[snow_wizard]

Jim no likey.

Most of the plumes are fine. The CFS is pretty much alone.

[TT-SEA]

It did snow here on Christmas Day in 2012... was supposed to be a big event but was just a coating and I remember there was light rain/sprinkles just down the road because we went for a walk that day.   Literally 500 feet down the road there was nothing.

 

I just read that post over there that BB posted here.  

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 op ... Very deep mega low south of Aleutian Chain

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122200/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 Parallel Cut-off low north of Hawaii stronger than Op

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122200/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_21.png

[Front Ranger]

HR 120 op ... Very deep mega low south of Aleutian Chain

 

 

Both versions of GFS are looking better. Too bad that mega-low isn't 200 mi further west...

[snow_wizard]

HR 120 op ... Very deep mega low south of Aleutian Chain

 

Much further south than previous runs. It will be interesting to see if there are any implications to that.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW.

 

814temp.new.gif

Bear in mind the GFS is showing a lot of fake cold. Pretty believable if that model verifies.

[Gradient Keeper]

Both versions of GFS are looking better. Too bad that mega-low isn't 200 mi further west...

Agreed

[Gradient Keeper]

Marshawn just went MAJOR beast mode 79yard man-style TD run. That was awesome. That has to increase the chances for a block around 140-145 W by 5% I'd think...

[MossMan]

Marshawn just went MAJOR beast mode 79yard man-style TD run. That was awesome. That has to increase the chances for a block around 140-145 W by 5% I'd think...

That was epic!!

[BLI snowman]

Lynch is stupid.

[bainbridgekid]

Well that's different. This low digs way further West on this run. Any further West and it would be a nice lowland snow event.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20141222/00/gfs_namer_129_1000_500_thick_s.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 144 Op

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122200/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_25.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Well that's different. This low digs way further West on this run. Any further West and it would be a nice lowland snow event.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20141222/00/gfs_namer_129_1000_500_thick_s.gif

Yep, and notice the much better heights over the southeast US

[Gradient Keeper]

I still don't know and don't understand if we're supposed to be using the Regular GFS or Parallel, and which one to interpret to obtain data for forecasting?

[BLI snowman]

Well that's different. This low digs way further West on this run. Any further West and it would be a nice lowland snow event.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20141222/00/gfs_namer_129_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Nice pattern, mediocre airmass. A bit like February 2, 2008.

[Gradient Keeper]

In my opinion, the Parallel looks goofy with all of the low pressure areas after HR 144...

[ShawniganLake]

Marshawn just went MAJOR beast mode 79yard man-style TD run. That was awesome. That has to increase the chances for a block around 140-145 W by 5% I'd think...

Not a Lynch fan, but that was pretty frickin unreal.

[snow_wizard]

HR 144 Op

Possible backwash snow for Puget Sound right there. This run is certainly better.

[Gradient Keeper]

In my opinion the Parallel is way too progressive... I'm following the model we always did before as this Op/Parallel crap is confusing...

[GHweatherChris]

The Seahawks are rolling, unstoppable on offense.

[ShawniganLake]

I still don't know and don't understand if we're supposed to be using the Regular GFS or Parallel, and which one to interpret to obtain data for forecasting?

I go with the regular GFS, has the parallel proven itself yet?  My feeling is no. 

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 174 .. Ridge shoved inland... Rising heights over southeast US/ridge though....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122200/gfs_z500_vort_namer_30.png

[FroYoBro]

In my opinion the Parallel is way too progressive... I'm following the model we always did before as this Op/Parallel crap is confusing...

Whatever gets me snow stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

Low levels are cold supposedly....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122200/gfs_T2m_nwus_30.png