December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 18z might smoke our brains.

[Timmy]

The 18z might smoke our brains.

What are you basing this on?

[Gradient Keeper]

Todays update.

 

Things look shifted west a bit. Compared to yesterday

 

FrssQTL.gif

And this is with human input forecasters. This chart is even better than the computerized output over the weekend. Very nice. Thanks for posting!

[Front Ranger]

The initial trough digging into the West on Christmas day is a bit further west on the 18z. SE ridge is also a bit further west and stronger.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS HR 84 Op

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_15.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 84 Parallel

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_15.png

[Front Ranger]

At hour 111, ridge is definitely tilted more, which should allow better cold air penetration into the PNW. Looking kinda similar to last night's GEM.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface Analysis
Kamchatka low forecast to curve northward towards Western Bering Sea

 

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png

[Front Ranger]

At hour 150, ridge is definitely still more tilted and amplified than last couple GFS runs, but looks like cold air will miss just east again.

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

At hour 150, ridge is definitely still more tilted and amplified than last couple GFS runs, but looks like cold air will miss just east again.

 

 

18zhour150.png

Yeah, but closer to being pretty cold, and improvements over 12z noted too.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, but closer to being pretty cold, and improvements over 12z noted too.

 

Agreed. It's not as strong with the Sat/Sun trough for you guys, which would mean heigher heights, drier and not quite as cold, less chance of CZ snow. But those are just the small details...the overall pattern development is definitely a step in right direction. Though I still would really like to see that Aleutian low complex further west.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 162 Parallel .... Hmmmm close to seeing retrogression, or may in fact be some here

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_28.png

[seattleweatherguy]

Pray for snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pray for snow.

 

Ask Santa for it.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 180 Parallel, hmmm, not bad

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_31.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Now this is quite nice!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500a_namer_31.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Just slide if 5 degrees west.... c'mon please...... it's Christmas !

[Deweydog]

Now this is quite nice!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500a_namer_31.png

 

Coast to coast coldish!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just slide if 5 degrees west.... c'mon please...... it's Christmas !

 

Looks like another infamous "backdoor" blast.

[Parksvillewx]

Just slide if 5 degrees west.... c'mon please...... it's Christmas !

 

Maybe that'll be the 00z's Christmas present for us.

[Front Ranger]

A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here.

[HighlandExperience]

Now this is quite nice!

 

 

That might be a step in the right direciton, but if that verifies we are likely to get screwed in the snow department and be stuck with a non memorable event.

 

The back door scenarios just don't seem to be very fun (especially for those of us in WA/BC). Really hope the block can establish itself a little farther west for a change.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z Op is really quite good

surface temps HR 156 - 300 ...Turns chilly, then cold, then warms a tad, than turns real cold with major reload

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_27.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_31.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_35.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_39.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_42.png

[Bryant]

A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here.

Agreed. Thank you.

[Gradient Keeper]

For PDX it looks like this would be more of a low-level driven blast 925mb - surface as 850s don't turn real cold west of The Dalles...

[Deweydog]

Boys... you gotta lighten up.

[Gradient Keeper]

A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here.

Sure.

Merry Christmas and God Bless you.

Go Blazers! Portland at Houston tonight

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 384 is a thing of beauty. LOL

[Front Ranger]

Boys... you gotta lighten up.

 

It's always been the standard, dog. Whether you're joking or not (we all know you actually love Christmas), if it's religion or politics, it's off-limits here and pretty much any moderated forum that doesn't have to do with one of those two things.

[FroYoBro]

A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here.

True. Lame jokes about Jesus could create a huge problem, but at least we aren't arguing the the dangers of a  marine push. That is the kind of thing that creates real problems on this site. 

[FroYoBro]

It's always been the standard, dog. Whether you're joking or not (we all know you actually love Christmas), if it's religion or politics, it's off-limits here and pretty much any moderated forum that doesn't have to do with one of those two things.

You are correct of course. 

[Gradient Keeper]

For PDX it looks like this would be more of a low-level driven blast 925mb - surface as 850s don't turn real cold west of The Dalles...

I agree, and furthermore it would be a significant back door arctic blast via Gorge. Real nice run, but let's see if there is Ensemble support and then if 00z runs continue this idea.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I agree, and furthermore it would be a significant back door arctic blast via Gorge. Real nice run, but let's see if there is Ensemble support and then if 00z runs continue this idea.

 

You realize you just replied in agreement to yourself.

[Deweydog]

It's always been the standard, dog. Whether you're joking or not (we all know you actually love Christmas), if it's religion or politics, it's off-limits here and pretty much any moderated forum that doesn't have to do with one of those two things.

Bucking for a renewed global status, eh?

[Front Ranger]

Hour 384 is a thing of beauty. LOL

 

Snow will approve. SCORE!

[BLI snowman]

Looks cold in extreme northeastern WA!

[Gradient Keeper]

Hour 384 is a thing of beauty. LOL

1064mb MEGA high over Yukon/northern BC.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T850_namer_49.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500_vort_namer_49.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500a_namer_49.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_49.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Score! Look at the low off of Newport with all that moisture and all that cold air coming down from the north with the 1060mb H in Yukon! Score! 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

You realize you just replied in agreement to yourself.

Yep, and actually I was going to continue it multi-quoting myself? Why? Because Arctic Blast. That's why. Oh... Gorton's Fisherman might chime in soon...