December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Well, despite differences in the pattern evolution, pretty similar result by day 6. Chilly and dry. Again, just shift everything 5 degrees and the PNW is probably golden.

[Snow]

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow, 1050mb+ high over southern BC....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Boom. Score

[Front Ranger]

Wow, 1050mb+ high over southern BC....

 

Yeah, that ends up being the biggest difference in the mid range this run. 

[Snow]

The GFS-Parallel is even colder, regular version trending to it now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_24.png

[Gradient Keeper]

1054mb high north of Omak... are you serious? That would have serious arctic/deep air mass and would be colder at 850 than modeled right now.

[TT-SEA]

Yep... this is trending just like the 11/28 event.

 

I am becoming more confident in snow here on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

[Snow]

[Snow]

Wow! GFS-Parallel! It's following the GEM!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_29.png

[Gradient Keeper]

The Op has surface temps in the 10's and 20's at times again for PDX HR 156 - 204

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow! GFS-Parallel! It's following the GEM!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_29.png

Yeah, looks pretty good. Back it up a bit more and it would be awesome

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_29.png

[Gradient Keeper]

This is a decently good run so far, and it seems that maybe now even our decently good runs are looking like this. Not bad. In my opinion this run was an eyelash from being incredible. We're almost there.

[Snow]

[Front Ranger]

SCORE!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coast to coast

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I need to check out the CFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well if January torches from coast to coast then the CFS will be spot on.

[Snow]

Okay now this is a little too much lol.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_35.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, well, well, the Op has another reload after day 12.... and VERY bitter arctic air.... Matches up with the new Euro Weeklies HMMMMM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122300/gfs_T2m_nwus_48.png

[snow_wizard]

tonights model run looks real real bad.

 

i'm not going to get down though.  tomorrow they'll be back to something close to good.

 

just have to be patient.

 

in phil i trust.

It actually looks good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Okay now this is a little too much lol.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_35.png

This map actually made me LOL

[MossMan]

It actually looks good.

Yeah I was s little confused by his post, things keep trending much more positive with each run if I am reading this right?

[Snow]

If the GFS-Parallel verifies this would be a huge success for the Americans and the upgrade is showing early signs of success.

[The Swamp]

It actually looks good.

Looks better than I initially thought. Was looking at the recent posts on my cell phone squinting at the screen.

[FroYoBro]

All that matters is that we have two runs in a row showing an arctic blast past 300 hours. I honestly think it will happen.

[Snowman5678]

Yep... this is trending just like the 11/28 event.

 

I am becoming more confident in snow here on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

 

I wouldnt mind another 3" of snow here...the lawn still hasn't been mowed so it would look like crap though.

[MossMan]

I wouldnt mind another 3" of snow here...the lawn still hasn't been mowed so it would look like crap though.

Better get out and mow!

[Snow]

This map actually made me LOL

Yeah but I like it. If the GFS-Parallel is that insistent on shoving cold air westward that bodes well for us because Oregon does well with this set-up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the GFS-Parallel verifies this would be a huge success for the Americans and the upgrade is showing early signs of success.

 

Go America.

[Front Ranger]

This map actually made me LOL

 

That's quite the little storm off NorCal there.

[snow_wizard]

Fantastic GFS run. A solid cold shot in the believable range and then a big blast later on. Pretty much cold the whole way through. Cold in January! OMG!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 850s -15c over PDX, and -18c to -20c The Dalles or Columbia Basin with strong east wind... We would be in the 10s.. add any snowcover... and it will be frigid!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah but I like it. If the GFS-Parallel is that insistent on shoving cold air westward that bodes well for us because Oregon does well with this set-up.

 

Probably bodes poorly for Alabama and Florida State...

[Gradient Keeper]

D**n... 1060mb over western Montana

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fantastic GFS run. A solid cold shot in the believable range and then a big blast later on. Pretty much cold the whole way through. Cold in January! OMG!

 

Who knows. But December has absolutely been a torchfest, wouldn't surprise me to see January below average. 

 

Would be nice to have our coldest January since like 1979, or earlier. We haven't had a legit cold January really since 1980. 

 

FYI right now SLE is on pace to have their warmest December on record. That would make 4 record warm months this year I believe, records date back to 1892....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Of course one of Salem's warmest December's on record was December 1929 which was followed by their coldest month ever recorded. I believe that was also an El Nino year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lets see what our friend the GEM has to say.

[Front Ranger]

Of course one of Salem's warmest December's on record was December 1929 which was followed by their coldest month ever recorded. I believe that was also an El Nino year.

 

12 degrees below average. It was like living in Chicago that month. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Lets see what our friend the GEM has to say.

Looking at a few model fields, it's not good....