December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Wow.  It looks like I missed the party!

[Gradient Keeper]

Tremendous analysis and insights, I couldn't have said it better myself.

Thanks

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
6z NAM running now
Next up....
6z GFS 1 hour 11 minutes
12z NAM 5 hours 31 minutes
12z GFS 7 hours 11 minutes
12z GEM 8 hours 31 minutes
12z ECMWF 9 hours 41 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Ensembles

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Improved even more than 12z, which improved dramatically compared to previous 00z run. Good deal. Now, what do we have to do to get that purple over us.. I want a lobe of the PV north of Omak on 12z runs tomorrow.

[Perturbed Member]

Am I posting too much/often? Yes? No? Sometimes? Maybe? All the Above? Ask later?

 

No, keep doing what you are doing! There are lots of us who read this stuff even if we don't post and I think we all appreciate the detailed and frequent posts. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

00Z Canadian is terrible.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

 

Could just be slow to catch up... or starting what will be the next trend in the models with this event.   

 

Canadian frequently does both so its hard to say.

That is certainly a pattern that I don't want to see for any length of time in January! However, it may be an outlier from what I have been reading here on the forum.

[MossMan]

Wow great analysis on the models everyone last night! I went to bed just as DJ was posting about the GEM, I almost stayed up to see what was the verdict on the Euro but was just too tired. So glad the Euro turned out well!! Going to be a fun few weeks I do believe! I got chills when Phil mentioned the possibility of this being a greater event than 2008. Go 12z's!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost time for 12z!

[Gradient Keeper]

I actually slept! True story....

 

12z GFS, here we go.... Let's see how this run goes. We want to see this run follow 00z, but further improvements would be okay too. If we can just manage to pull the block 5 degrees west and a bit further north into Alaska.... I don't want to see it look like 6z, which in my opinion was a slight step backwards. Today very well may be edging towards a final solution, either way good or bad.

[TT-SEA]

A colder/snowier version of December 2008 coming up? Starting to look that way..

 

That is good... the one thing that was missing with the 2008 event was snow!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is good... the one thing that was missing with the 2008 event was snow!

I think people went a little overboard on last night s model runs.

[HighlandExperience]

That is good... the one thing that was missing with the 2008 event was snow!

 

That would be pretty amazing if this thing surpassed 2008.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z ensemble has a number of cold members just before New Years. That time frame is looking better all the time. Nice to see the UKMET looks Arctic also.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 6z ensemble has a number of cold members just before New Years. That time frame is looking better all the time. Nice to see the UKMET looks Arctic also.

Could you post those?

[ShawniganLake]

I think people went a little overboard on last night s model runs.

Based on last nights runs, I feel a January 1950 is a worst case outcome.

[Gradient Keeper]

Computer froze

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Based on last nights runs, I feel a January 1950 is a worst case outcome.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Computer froze

Cuz the models are so cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 48 Op ... Just post Op, or Parallel images?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HR 48 Op ... Just post Op, or Parallel images?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

Whatever the holy spirit is leading you to do. I'm sure Snow will post parallel images.

[MossMan]

I actually slept! True story....

 

12z GFS, here we go.... Let's see how this run goes. We want to see this run follow 00z, but further improvements would be okay too. If we can just manage to pull the block 5 degrees west and a bit further north into Alaska.... I don't want to see it look like 6z, which in my opinion was a slight step backwards. Today very well may be edging towards a final solution, either way good or bad.

Good! People like me that are not as good at reading all the different maps on the various models are counting on you!! I have a feeling I'm not going to get much done at work today. Last work day for me until next Monday! 

[antipex]

10,023 BC repeat!

 

I hear that was a great year for snow and cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 48 Parallel http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 72 Op

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_13.png

[catnip]

12Z operational not good for the weekend.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96 Op

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_17.png

 

 

500mb

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500a_namer_17.png

[catnip]

12Z:

 

 

6Z:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ouch

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 72 Parallel

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_13.png

[Snowman5678]

That would be pretty amazing if this thing surpassed 2008.

I can't imagine an 08' repeat... Another 40"+ of snow? Sign me up!

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 Op .. Not good

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gem leads the way?

[catnip]

Gem leads the way?

 

Hopefully it is the 12Z GEM from yesterday and not last night's.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is way different for Saturday.

 

 

New 12Z run:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_108_precip_p03.gif

 

 

00Z run from last night:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p03.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Kona low too weak on this run...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS is way different for Saturday.

 

 

New 12Z run:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_108_precip_p03.gif

 

 

00Z run from last night:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p03.gif

Celebrate sunshine and ridging in this land of constant troughs.

[MossMan]

It is amazing how different that run looks compared to the 0z. I wonder if it is just the models still having a really tough time with the pattern change, or if this is the final outcome. Maybe we will know by Christmas?

[Gradient Keeper]

Parallel is running so slow....

 

HR 96

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_17.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 144 Op .. Ridge reorganizing

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_25.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 Parallel... Since HR 48 entirely different 500mb compared to Op

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_21.png