December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Euro is better than GFS hours 72-96. Looks like it might spin up that weak low on the coast as well, but I can't see the hours in between those two frames, unfortunately. Looks more like the GEM.

[GHweatherChris]

A lot of negativity on here tonight for some reason. Let the details and overall pattern work itself out in time before complaining....

There hasn't been any negativity tonight, just preference stated.  Big difference.

[Front Ranger]

Didn't realize the parallel went out past 240, but I'm sure it goes out to 384...

 

Too bad. Would be better if they only showed ensembles or "weeklies" past 10 days. Better for weenie health.

[snow_wizard]

A lot of negativity on here tonight for some reason. Let the details and overall pattern work itself out in time before complaining....

I agree. This has a shot at being something really big.

[seattleweatherguy]

Now that is cold!

how cold would that be you sure that is not photoshopped? my guess highs in the 20s?

[Bryant]

There hasn't been any negativity tonight, just preference stated. Big difference.

Stating preference which was provoked by the models... Us in the northern regions all want to see some snow, and the pattern has huge potential. That's plenty for me as of now. Euro looks impressively cold for Bellingham during this first phase.

[Snow]

[wx_statman]

Abbotsford has been pretty crappy overall since 2008-09. That's a spot that averages about 25" a winter and they've been averaging half that recently.

 

That's the impression I've gotten from seeing the chatter. They did pretty well in January 2012 though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be wrong, but I think the euro is going to undercut the block.

[GHweatherChris]

Stating preference which was provoked by the models... Us in the northern regions all want to see some snow, and the pattern has huge potential. That's plenty for me as of now. Euro looks impressively cold for Bellingham during this first phase.

I just like to see it shown in the models.  Seeing cold air and no moisture anywhere close sucks.

 

I am not complaining about about potential, simply stating what I would prefer would happen.

 

However, if it gets cold again and there is no widespread snow by the time the cold leaves, then IMO that is wasted time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be wrong, but I think the euro is going to undercut the block.

I think I will be wrong lol

[snow_wizard]

how cold would that be you sure that is not photoshopped? my guess highs in the 20s?

I would guess teens for Bellingham and low 20s for Seattle. It would certainly be the coldest Jan blast since 1982 at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hr 120 is cold.

[GHweatherChris]

Could be wrong, but I think the euro is going to undercut the block.

I do not necessarily believe in areas being due or owed something,  but I would love to have a great overrunning event, it seems like it has been forever since we have seen one.

[FroYoBro]

I just like to see it shown in the models.  Seeing cold air and no moisture anywhere close sucks.

 

I am not complaining about about potential, simply stating what I would prefer would happen.

 

However, if it gets cold again and there is no widespread snow by the time the cold leaves, then IMO that is wasted time.

Existing is a waste of time.

[GHweatherChris]

Existing is a waste of time.

All depends on how you spend it away from theweatherforums.com!!

[snow_wizard]

I just like to see it shown in the models.  Seeing cold air and no moisture anywhere close sucks.

 

I am not complaining about about potential, simply stating what I would prefer would happen.

 

However, if it gets cold again and there is no widespread snow by the time the cold leaves, then IMO that is wasted time.

The models are terrible at handling moisture going into these. Getting the cold is the first order of business and the models are much better at determining that.

[bainbridgekid]

That's the impression I've gotten from seeing the chatter. They did pretty well in January 2012 though.

And late February 2014 I'm almost positive.

 

Been a lot of dry blasts for them lately though.

[ShawniganLake]

I think I will be wrong lol

I agree with this assessment.

[GHweatherChris]

The models are terrible at handling moisture going into these. Getting the cold is the first order of business and the models are much better at determining that.

I know this.  Always comforting to see snow in the models though.

[TT-SEA]

Where in the hell is Rob with my ECMWF updates???  

[Front Ranger]

0z Euro has delayed the shortwave some. Also, that cutoff low down in CA is even further West. Not a coincidence, imo.

[GHweatherChris]

Where in the hell is Rob with my ECMWF updates???  

No .  I don't have time to look at them either.

[GHweatherChris]

0z Euro has delayed the shortwave some. Also, that cutoff low down in CA is even further West. Not a coincidence, imo.

Stop being negative man.  

[Front Ranger]

Hour 144.
 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Stop being negative man.  

 

I see what you did there  

 

I'm just a reporter, relaying the news to my PNW friends.

[GHweatherChris]

I see what you did there

 

I'm just a reporter, relaying the news to my PNW friends.

LOL, nice.  Thank you for having a sense of humor.  Took someone long enough.

[Snow]

0z Euro has delayed the shortwave some. Also, that cutoff low down in CA is even further West. Not a coincidence, imo.

That might help though push the upper level high more West.

[BLI snowman]

And late February 2014 I'm almost positive.

 

Been a lot of dry blasts for them lately though.

 

Only 14" last winter at Abbotsford, though. 2008-09 for comparison had 54". That was their last snowier than average winter. Obviously their median is a lot lower than the average.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the ECMWF is going for a reload after day 6.

[GHweatherChris]

Hour 144.

 

 

144.png

Ouch.

[bainbridgekid]

Only 14" last winter at Abbotsford, though. 2008-09 for comparison had 54". That was their last snowier than average winter. Obviously their median is a lot lower than the average.

Pretty much all of that must have been late February and early March?

 

I thought they stayed snow on February 24th when Bellingham had all that 33-34 degree rain, but that might not be true.

 

Most of their snow the last 3 winters must have fallen on 2 days (1/16/12 and 2/23/14)

[Front Ranger]

Hour 168. Not bad, but again delayed a bit from what it showed last night.

 

 

 

[Abbotsford_wx]

Only 14" last winter at Abbotsford, though. 2008-09 for comparison had 54". That was their last snowier than average winter. Obviously their median is a lot lower than the average.

 

Yeah, I've averaged 12.5" at my place over the last five winters. About half of normal. There have been some decent events like Jan 2012, but they have definitely been pretty few and far between. Then again, I guess winters like 2009/10 and 2012/13 were pretty bad across the entire region. I don't feel so bad when everyone is getting screwed across the board, but last winter was certainly discouraging up here.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty much all of that must have been late February and early March?

 

I thought they stayed snow on February 24th when Bellingham had all that 33-34 degree rain, but that might not be true.

 

They got 8.6" on February 22-24 last winter, which was a bit less than Bellingham. Precip was slightly heavier over us. 

[Front Ranger]

192. 

 

 

 

[Snow]

192.

 

 

192.png

Nice! This map shows the L that will give us snow.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[snow_wizard]

Serious snow potential on the ECMWF by day 8. Just no way to spin this in a bad way.

[Snow]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Euro is good.