December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Yeah I could see pdx ending up in that territory with this. Another event about two weeks ago I said I thought we'd see something similar to. And was ridiculed by some for.

 

It's a pretty apples/oranges comparison but yeah, the numbers could be very similar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wouldn't be surprised at all to see you get some snowfall going into this.

I could see maybe 1 to 3 inches and not be surprised. I'd be surprised if I got nothing. The setup with the December 2010 airman was much more dynamic initially, and a much juicier frontal boundary. Se oregon had some big time snow with the system which led to a couple record lows out there.

[Deweydog]

Pretty sure that's what he originally meant, but then changed his meaning after he realized that was silly.

 

Turned over a new leaf, eh?  They won't be colder than 35 for a high during the event.  Is that better?  More likely to be 36 than 34, in my opinion.  Settle, contro-boy.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's a pretty apples/oranges comparison but yeah, the numbers could be very similar.

Different animal yes.

[Front Ranger]

18z at hour 57.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

From an observed weather stand point this really doesn't look radically different then Jan 2013 or Dec 2010.

[Front Ranger]

Turned over a new leaf, eh?  They won't be colder than 35 for a high during the event.  Is that better?  More likely to be 36 than 34, in my opinion.  Settle, contro-boy.  

 

Love ya, DD!

[Front Ranger]

From an observed weather stand point this really doesn't look radically different then Jan 2013 or Dec 2010.

 

You think SLE will rattle off 6-7 sub-freezing highs?

[Deweydog]

Love ya, DD!

30-32 or bust!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You think SLE will rattle off 6-7 sub-freezing highs?

Well no. Remember my disclaimer yesterday.

[BLI snowman]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us0121.php

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/2008/1/21/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/2008/1/22/DailyHistory.html

 

DLS is progged to have 514 thickness, -16c 850mb temps, and snowcover with this. Outflow will be at least a few degrees colder in Portland with this. Hardly identical.

[Deweydog]

DLS is progged to have 514 thickness, -16c 850mb temps, and snowcover with this. Outflow will be at least a few degrees colder in Portland with this. Hardly identical.

No, not identical. -9c is warmer than -11c. But for someone using 12-10 as an analog it should suffice.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z Op HR 72 slightly coldest 850s nearing northern Washington

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122618/gfs_T850_nwus_13.png

[Front Ranger]

18z is not as cold as 12z models. Dewey's PDX call of 35 looks marginally better.

[BLI snowman]

No, not identical. -9c is warmer than -11c. But for someone using 12-10 as an analog it should suffice.

 

Like I said, stubborn and petulant. 

[Deweydog]

Like I said, stubborn and petulant.

Yes, it's all me. No chance it could be you're a little off the mark here.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Front Ranger]

The para is more generous with snow chances.

 

 

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

14 Troutdale Tuesday morning....

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice... Snow covered Gorge/Columbia Basin looks real possible-likely going into arctic blast

[BLI snowman]

Yes, it's all me. No chance it could be you're a little off the mark here.

 

Not much.

 

35 is not an unreasonable call. 38 is Keanu Reeves level of Devil's Advocacy. Fine lines.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 Troutdale Tuesday morning....

Won't happen

[Front Ranger]

Para is easily colder than operational as well. Still shows -9 to -10C for SEA, and -10 to 11C for PDX. Colder on east side as well.

[Front Ranger]

The para says there will be snow. Jesse SCORES.

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Offshore ridge looking anemic this run. Not looking good for reload.

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks like 

 

The para says there will be snow. Jesse SCORES.

 

 

get_orig_img.png

Looks like me, snow wizard get a trace to 1 on that map.

[Deweydog]

Not much.

 

35 is not an unreasonable call. 38 is Keanu Reeves level of Devil's Advocacy. Fine lines.

38 would surprise me, but not as much as the 31 Flatiron II is going for would.

 

Again, this is all assuming brown/green ground reigns supreme.

[Deweydog]

Looks like

 

Looks like me, snow wizard get a trace to 1 on that map.

Something tells me the lines of demarcation on that map shouldn't be taken very seriously.

[snow_wizard]

18z is not as cold as 12z models. Dewey's PDX call of 35 looks marginally better.

I sure don't see much difference. Same thickness and maybe 1/4 degree warmer on the 850s at the peak.

[Front Ranger]

38 would surprise me, but not as much as the 31 Flatiron II is going for would.

 

Again, this is all assuming brown/green ground reigns supreme.

 

It's looking pretty likely the Gorge will have snow cover, at least. I'm factoring that in as well.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 

 

Looks like me, snow wizard get a trace to 1 on that map.

It actually shows 2 inches here, but I'm not holding my breath.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like

 

Looks like me, snow wizard get a trace to 1 on that map.

First of all... its a low resolution map. And certainly incorrect because it does not snow in that pattern. The WRF makes the same mistake all the time. But people love to derive very specific amounts for very specific locations with these silly snow maps.

 

The para map had 3.4 inches of snow for my location on Christmas Eve and I had right around zero.

[Deweydog]

It's looking pretty likely the Gorge will have snow cover, at least. I'm factoring that in as well.

I don't think it will be as much of a factor as people think, at least early on. When things turn low level, that's when it jumps in the driver seat. Kind of a bummer the pattern returns to a progressive nature and shuts off the pipeline fairly quickly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First of all... its a low resolution map. And certainly incorrect because it does not snow in that pattern. The WRF makes the same mistake all the time. But people love to derive very specific amounts for very specific locations with these silly snow maps.

 

The para map had 3.4 inches of snow for my location on Christmas Eve and I had right around zero.

 

Yeah its obviously showing snow from foothills/mountains out over the low lands.

[Front Ranger]

First of all... its a low resolution map. And certainly incorrect because it does not snow in that pattern. The WRF makes the same mistake all the time. But people love to derive very specific amounts for very specific locations with these silly snow maps.

 

The para map had 3.4 inches of snow for my location on Christmas Eve and I had right around zero.

 

But look at the operational!!! I agree that these maps are next to useless, but there's no doubt they are showing more moisture around than they were before.

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

But look at the operational!!! I agree that these maps are next to useless, but there's no doubt they are showing more moisture around than they were before.

 

 

18zoperational.png

Yes... high level is the only way to use them. I just cringe when people spend time pinpointing their location and coming up with some pointless and very precise amount.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But look at the operational!!! I agree that these maps are next to useless, but there's no doubt they are showing more moisture around than they were before.

 

 

18zoperational.png

 

That map shows like 6" at my house. lol

[BLI snowman]

Definitely looking moister overall, but temps are extremely borderline for most of Sunday night. It's not easy to get below 35 in the lowlands with onshore flow and relatively light precip rates.

[TT-SEA]

But look at the operational!!! I agree that these maps are next to useless, but there's no doubt they are showing more moisture around than they were before.

 

 

18zoperational.png

Looks like the south Cascades are going to expand to include Portland and bring them a couple feet of snow. Central Cascades might reach out to about Renton and Federal Way

That SHOULD help with snow totals.

 

[Front Ranger]

We're not quite close enough where the hi-res models become real useful anyways. Within 36-48 hours.