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Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Snowshoe
Snowshoe

Posted about the models on TTB 2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAV

Geos
Geos

Hi-res ARW is nice looking!         NMM  

Scott26
Scott26

I'm so glad this system will pass and we will move on lol. It's been impossible to track and keep up with since day 1. Right when there was some consistency with the models they changed at the last se

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

OK-- I admit. I'am searching for something- anything that shows some snow for central IA. The hi-res NAM aint so bad- Too bad it likely not going to happen-- but at least I have some hope.hires_snow_acc_mw_20.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

Posted
Posted

I'm actually becoming more interested in this storm for our snow chances vs the one at the end of the week. Looks like we could get a couple of inches and have a heavy burst of snow overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. Here's Omaha's AFD:

 

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AREA OF HEAVIER PCPN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WHERE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING VERY STRONG VERTICAL
MOTION FOR ASCENT.

A VERY CONCERNING ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM NEAR THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO COME IN HIGHER WITH
EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN AND THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS CONFINED IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FROM 03Z-12Z. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS.

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Money Proficient

Money

Posted
Posted

The RGEM has a tendency sometimes to be too amped, so I would take it with a grain of salt similar to how the NAM is seeming too suppressed at this time.

 

True, but the 6z GFS Parallel was down to about 980. The trend has been clear for the higher resolution models the last 2 or so runs. More amped up than the op. 

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WildWisconsinWeather Newbie

WildWisconsinWeather

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True, but the 6z GFS Parallel was down to about 980. The trend has been clear for the higher resolution models the last 2 or so runs. More amped up than the op. 

 

Regardless of outcome, one of the models at least is going to be schooled due to how different each run seems to be.  Either the NAM/Euro/Euro Ensembles are going to look awful, or the GFS/hi-res NAM are going to end up too amped.

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