BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 doesn't look good for wisconsin imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Anything up this way?Ya, you seemed to be on the western end of the defo band...dynamic cooling is going to end up being the key caveat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Skillings' RPM at noon had a ton of moisture with rain changing to snow around 5:00pm on Wednesday. Pretty good defo band just not a lot on the snow totals.Hoping not a lot of moisture is sucked away by the rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks like Chicago is going to get blasted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 SREF 12 hr min. snow totals at hr 48 (much wetter in terms of snowfall) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014122215/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f048.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks like Chicago is going to get blasted. told you guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 told you guysLol depends on your definition of blasted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just been getting a steady light rain here all day, making it damp outside. This storm is going to be a major dud for Iowa while Chicago gets hammered as usual. It seems like we can never get anything here in Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 SREF 12 hr min. snow totals at hr 48 (much wetter in terms of snowfall) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014122215/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f048.gifnot much i think that we might not get that much as orginally thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 SREF 12 hr min. snow totals at hr 48 (much wetter in terms of snowfall) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014122215/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f048.gifThat can't be right. My area is too far east with.this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Lol depends on your definition of blasted I'm looking forward to watching the heavy snow fall while sipping cocktails on Christmas Eve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 the only reason we are not getting the big snowstorm we thought is because the lack of cold air with the milder air and with that piece lurking in canada is choking the southren piece off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 not much i think that we might not get that much as orginally thought.It only goes out to Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm looking forward to watching the heavy snow fall while sipping cocktails on Christmas Eve. Snow will be heavy and wet but I think all of Chicago area should be planning for 2-4 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Snow will be heavy and wet but I think all of Chicago area should be planning for 2-4 inches. that's a lot of snow! white Christmas for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hi res nam holding firm from 12z and even is 2 mb stronger through hr 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nam won't budge however Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks like Chicago is going to get blasted. More like plastered! haha Ever since the update the NAM had in August, it has lacked the medium range amped up solutions. 4km NAM is the exact opposite though. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 995 in w tn at hr 36 Slower a tad sw and about 2 mb stronger than 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 992 in eastern il a tad sw of LAF Going to hold strong compared if it's 12z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 WAA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 MKX is sure not impressed yet with the westward shift of this system. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm liking the GEFS ensembles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hi res nam takes it down to 982 or so right over geos area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 MSN special but doubt that verifies . pretty all rain all the way to Milwaukee and points even north west of there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah that's in line with the RGEM. The extreme (stronger) solution usually doesn't verify. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Geos starting to panic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Geos starting to panic If the GFS looks like this, then I will. Crazy --- Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Never doubt the NW trend Never 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Never doubt the NW trend Never This part of the latest MKX discussion makes we wonder if they're really watching the models, lol! A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE ELONGATEDTROUGH OVER THE AR/MO AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGHLOWER MICHIGAN WED EVENING. A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TOSURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHEAST WI WILLBE ON THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. I LOWERED THE PRECIPCHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD NOTEVEN BE VERY STRONG EXCEPT FOR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. 925MB TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW 0C IN SOUTHEAST WI TUE EVENING BUT WILLREMAIN WARMER THAN -5C THROUGH WED NIGHT. WE WILL BE HOVERING AROUNDTHE FREEZING MARK AT THE SURFACE... SO THIS WILL MEAN A RAIN OR SNOWMIX FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIP WE GET. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 That was this mornings afd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 LOT going with an SWS for the time being Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 986 sw of Chicago on 18z rgem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL318 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-230200-WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER318 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014 /418 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014/...SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ONWEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDINGTHE EXACT TRACK THE LOW WILL TAKE...WHICH COULD MEAN THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION...RAIN...OR RAINCHANGING TO WET SNOW. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THISPOINT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO A PERIOD OFHEAVY WET ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.FOR THOSE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS ON WEDNESDAY...PLEASE BE AWARETHAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PLEASE KEEPABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORMSYSTEM FOR UPDATES.$IZZI Well said. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 This part of the latest MKX discussion makes we wonder if they're really watching the models, lol! That was this morning. Here is the afternoon. .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. YESTERDAY THE 12Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS...FOLLOWED BY THE 18ZTHROUGH THE 12Z TODAY RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWED A BACKINGTO THE WEST OF THE SECONDARY LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THELOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HASALSO TRENDED FARTHER WEST NOW. THE TWO VERSIONS OF THE CANADIANMODEL ARE ALSO SHOWING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS WELL. THEREFOREPRECIP CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORWEDNESDAY. STILL...THE AXIS OF BEST QPF IS STILL SOUTHEAST OFWISCONSIN...WE/RE JUST GETTING INTO THE WESTERN SHIELD OF IT.TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS FOR SNOW. IN THEABSENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS...THE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN WITHSOME SNOW MIXED IN. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE SOME DYNAMIC COOLINGOF THE COLUMN AND THIS MIGHT RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MORE SNOW THANRAIN. THIS WOULD BE A RATHER WET SNOW WITH VERY LOW SNOW/LIQRATIOS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S.GIVEN THAT AND THE FACT THAT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAYSUGGEST THE IMPACT SHOULD BE LOW AS WE WILL LIKELY GET DECENTMELTING...IF SNOW OCCURS. THE BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKEWILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 A little hope from LaCrosse in their AFD. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MAINLY A CONCERN ON TUESDAY WEST OF A LINEFROM OLWEIN TO LA CROSSE TO WASSAU. EXPECT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIXFARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WARM AIR THIS EVENING AND A SLOWTRANSITION TO A COLDER AIR MASS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT SNOWFALL...BUT MODELS SHOW ALL BUT THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER DROPPING BELOWFREEZING BY 23.12Z. EXPECT STRONG LIFT FROM 5 TO 8 UBAR/SECONDALONG THE -15 C ISOTHERM WITHIN DEFORMATION SNOW AXIS TO GENERATESNOWFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURESAND ACCUMULATE. NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF HEAVY WETSNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI WITHTHE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN. THIS MATCHES FAIRLYWELL WITH LATEST GFS/NAM COBB OUTPUT AND SREF PLUMES. ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL WILL BE BEST REALIZED ACROSS GRASSY SURFACES...BUT COULDSTILL SEE SLUSH ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS MAKING TRAVELDIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WILLKEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY AND MONITORALL OTHER AREAS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION. SEE SPS FOR ADDITIONALINFORMATION. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I knew all along that models wont have a clue about what will happen to this storm....not until the storm begins to form in the central CONUS and the process of cyclogenisis occurs. Hi Rez models by tomorrow should have a better handle on this system and they will "see" the pieces to the puzzle fine tuned. Somebody is going to get nailed. Still kinda worried Chicago might be to close to the rain/snow line as this storm could energize too much and trend NW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 parallel gfs really warm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Parallel gfs west and stronger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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