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New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm

Scott26

By Scott26
in East of the Rockies

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Tom
Tom

Thanks for starting this thread.  Even though we are about a week away from this potential storm system, there are several indicators this storm should materialize into a big winter storm.  The LRC ha

Scott26
Scott26

This is shaping up to be a classic winter storm so no more of this warm air aloft and needing some dynamic cooling garbage. Now it's mostly track-dependent and how early or how late it phases. I under

Scott26
Scott26

I don't know about you guys, but I just want to get the ball rolling so to speak. After seeing no accumulating snow in December even a couple of inches from this storm I will be thrilled. There is def

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

Posted
Posted

No, just..no.

 

 

Yeahhhhh. Im lucky enough to be out of there for the time being. God, it's just been horrible out there AGAIN. I'd trade any snow we get up here for you guys to get some out there.

The 12Z GFS and GEM were actually not bad for eastern Nebraska on this storm. Not sure if it will hold true or not but it's at least something to follow

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FV-Mike Community Regular

FV-Mike

Posted
Posted

LOT update

 

ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR THE ARKLATEX FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW
WEAKENS AND ELONGATES THE SURFACE TROUGH OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH
FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAIN LOW IS THEN
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS INDIANA SATURDAY EVENING TO THE EASTERN
LAKES SUNDAY MORNING AS IT STRENGTHENS. WHILE THIS GENERAL TRACK
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TRENDS ARE
EMERGING WITH THIS OVERALL SPEED...THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND MORE IMPORTANTLY PRECIP
TYPE OVER THE CWA.

GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS LIKELY. THIS TRACK WOULD
SUGGEST MORE SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...TO A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA TO A FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WHILE SMALL CHANGES TO THE
TRACK/THERMAL PROFILES WILL RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A WINTRY
MIX BASED ON THE CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...
THE LONG WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKES DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH COULD END UP
BEING ABOVE FREEZING. OPTED TO ADD FREEZING RAIN TO THIS FORECAST
WHICH ALSO MATCHES WITH WPC THOUGHTS OF A POSSIBLE SWATH OF LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
CONFIDENCE OF A WINTRY MIX IS INCREASING BUT AGAIN ITS IMPORTANT
TO STRESS SMALL CHANGES COULD HAVE LARGE IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEPART...THERE IS GROWING
CONSENSUS OF A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE ECMWF FURTHEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY
THIS TIME...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW OR
QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. IF THIS WERE TO DEVELOP...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE AREAS THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

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Money Proficient

Money

Posted
Posted

MKE

 

MODELS THEN HAVE SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURES PHASE AND SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.

CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN GFS
AND ECMWF...LEANING MORE TOWARD WETTER CANADIAN NH SOLUTION.
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 2-4"...WHILE CIPS LEANING TOWARD 6". GIVEN THE
STINGY NATURE OF SNOW THIS WINTER...BEING CONSERVATIVE HAS PAID
OFF THUS FAR.

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Scott26 Newbie

Scott26

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I don't know about you guys, but I just want to get the ball rolling so to speak. After seeing no accumulating snow in December even a couple of inches from this storm I will be thrilled. There is definitely potential for 6+ inches of snow somewhere from this storm, but if I'm not right in the bulls-eye it's fine by me. It's just fun to watch how this will play out in a classic Euro vs. GFS showdown.

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tim the weatherman Newbie

tim the weatherman

Posted
Posted

I don't know about you guys, but I just want to get the ball rolling so to speak. After seeing no accumulating snow in December even a couple of inches from this storm I will be thrilled. There is definitely potential for 6+ inches of snow somewhere from this storm, but if I'm not right in the bulls-eye it's fine by me. It's just fun to watch how this will play out in a classic Euro vs. GFS showdown.

i can recall that we had a dusting either this month or last month but that since melted away.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

Posted
Posted

Something tells me lean towards the EURO, but not quite all the way to it. I think the GGEM is over doing the WAA thus you get more ice on the maps. Usually icing events are fairly narrow: ~50 miles or even less wide. Mike Caplan going with 2-4" right now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Wow, the Euro caved.  Based on the fact that all other models were north, I thought it would make sense for the Euro to shift as well, but wasn't holding my breath.  Now my problem is my area is in a great spot, so since we still have 48 hours from the first wave and 60-72 hours to the 2nd wave it will probably shift to my north like usual.  If I get 3" I'll be satisfied, but am hoping to finally break the 6" drought here.  It's been nearly 4 years since my last 6" snowstorm 2/1/11 (aka GHD blizzard) is the last time I have recorded 6" or more at my house.  I did have a 5.5" storm on 12/22/13 last season though. 

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