New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm

[WBadgersW]

This. Sucker is a la crosse to Green Bay special

Can't give up hope yet. Storms have been trending away from us as the storm gets closer though...

[Money]

madtown freaking out for no reason at all

[Grizzcoat]

DMX has always been pretty tight when it comes to the "B" word-- but with 45-50kt gusts with a fresh 4-6" of snow-- wouldn't surprise if its mentioned as a possibility in the afternoon disco

[Geos]

I think Madison will do fine with this storm. I think it's done moving NW now. 

Will have watch what happens the next 36 hours with the model swaying.

 

Not expecting much more than 0.5-1.5" of wet snow with this. Problem is that there is no snow cover around to hold the cold air in place ahead of the storm. WAA won't have that working against it.

 

[FV-Mike]

Lot, still thinking 1-2 inches northwest of a line from Peru to Chicago

[Money]

18z shifted NW again a bit and matches the 12z parallel very well.

 

6-8 in the main band in SW WI and up towards eastern WI 

[gosaints]

WAA could throw a wrench into this baby

[Madtown]

Mkx goes with 1-3 and mix

[CentralNebWeather]

18z gfs farther northwest. Local mets still saying could come farther north. NWS north Platte and NWS goodland still mentioning a further shift north. Cutoff lows over the southwest are tough to forecast, seem to have a mind of their own.

[Money]

Parallel GFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010118/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png

[WBadgersW]

Parallel GFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010118/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png

PGFS sure has been consistent

[james1976]

Nice pm disco from DMX. Bumped up totals to 4-6 and Sunday winds could be 40-45. Wind chills in NW Iowa could reach -40. This is setting up to be a classic winter storm with moderate-heavy snow followed by strong winds, blowing snow and dangerous wind chills.

[james1976]

Did PGFS shift a tad SE?

[gosaints]

PGFS needs to turn it around at some point. 

[Tom]

Nice pm disco from DMX. Bumped up totals to 4-6 and Sunday winds could be 40-45. Wind chills in NW Iowa could reach -40. This is setting up to be a classic winter storm with moderate-heavy snow followed by strong winds, blowing snow and dangerous wind chills.

You look to be in a great location to get hit with some warning type snows.  This storm may even get juiced a bit more over the next 24 hours.  Classic winter storm like you said.

[Geos]

Lot, still thinking 1-2 inches northwest of a line from Peru to Chicago

 

Models need to start pulling this back SE then.

[Iowawx]

In my area, we are getting close to the edge of the heavier snow because of it inching NW. Does anybody think it will keep going more NW? 

[Niko]

Hopefully this storm can give me several inches of snow before transitioning to an icy mix and then plain cold rain. Too bad its not moving a tad SE, that way, I would be on the colder side of the storm. Lets see how this will play out. Fun storm coming up.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Hopefully this storm can give me several inches of snow before transitioning to an icy mix and then plain cold rain. Too bad its not moving a tad SE, that way, I would be on the colder side of the storm. Lets see how this will play out. Fun storm coming up.

 

I highly doubt Detroit will see more than an inch out of this as it stands now.  Hopefully it trends a tad SE.

[jlp]

 

From MKE.

 

 

 

729 PM CST THU JAN 1 2015

 

...ONE - TWO PUNCH OF WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

 

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE

SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL

GATHER STRENGTH AND MOISTURE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE

GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.

 

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR CHICAGO AND ACROSS LOWER

MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEARNESS AND

STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A MIXTURE OF

SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY.

 

THE MIXTURE WILL CHANGE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. IN

ADDITION, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ARE

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND

RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

 

AT THIS TIME, ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING

THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL

WISCONSIN, ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DODGEVILLE TO MADISON

TO PORT WASHINGTON.

 

THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER EVENTS TO

AFFECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS COLD SEASON. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. NOW WOULD BE A GOOD

TIME TO REVIEW YOUR WINTER SAFETY AND DRIVING RULES.

 

STAY ON TOP OF THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THE RETURN OF

WINTRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. IF CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH, WINTER

WEATHER HEADLINES WOULD LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER

EVENT ON FRIDAY.

 

$$

MBK

[Niko]

I highly doubt Detroit will see more than an inch out of this as it stands now.  Hopefully it trends a tad SE.

Im about 50 minutes north from Detroit. Im thinking I could stay on the frozen side a bit longer.

[james1976]

NAM weak snow totals on 00z run.

[dubuque473]

Reading DVN looks like 7" best case scenairo for me, 30mph winds after that.

 

Local met says he expects it to continue more NW though...hoping it stays put myself.

[WBadgersW]

Reading DVN looks like 7" best case scenairo for me, 30mph winds after that.

 

Local met says he expects it to continue more NW though...hoping it stays put myself.

At least the latest Nam stopped the NW trend and even came South a bit. I hate riding the line...

[gosaints]

At least the latest Nam stopped the NW trend and even came South a bit. I hate riding the line...

Trended towards strung out .

[Geos]

0z NAM

 

[Tom]

00z GFS...

[james1976]

WTF??? Absolute terrible runs tonight. Unbelievable how it change that quickly in one run.

[Tom]

Models are picking up on a secondary wave that may bring some accumulating snow for N IL.  Let's see what the GGEM/EURO show.

[Tom]

WTF??? Absolute terrible runs tonight. Unbelievable how it change that quickly in one run.

This is the year of model consistency, remember???  LOL...baffled how much the GFS/NAM have strung out this system and we are less than 48 hours away.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

This is the year of model consistency, remember???  LOL...baffled how much the GFS/NAM have strung out this system and we are less than 48 hours away.

 

In this case stringing it out hasn't impacted Milwaukee's prospects too much, but wouldn't be surprised if it did in subsequent runs.

[East Dubzz]

Well I like the placement of the GFS and NAM at least. Just not the amounts.

[Grizzcoat]

WTF??? Absolute terrible runs tonight. Unbelievable how it change that quickly in one run.

yeah-- unreal. the only model that held was the hires NAM. I have a feeling the NAM and GFS are onto it being weaker/phasing later and the 2nd wave not as strong.

[Tom]

In this case stringing it out hasn't impacted Milwaukee's prospects too much, but wouldn't be surprised if it did in subsequent runs.

Ya, MKE doesn't look that bad so far in tonight's 00z runs. 

[james1976]

yeah-- unreal. the only model that held was the hires NAM. I have a feeling the NAM and GFS are onto it being weaker/phasing later and the 2nd wave not as strong.

Yup, we're 36-48 hours away from the event now. So my bet is going toward the weaker/SE trend from tonight's runs. 

[Seahawkfan]

Nam Shows about 4 inches for my area Saturday storm. 

 

[Tom]

00z PGFS went farther south this run...N IL now getting some snow...

[Tom]

00z PGFS...

[dubuque473]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015010200&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

[Tom]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015010200&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

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